Breaking down BlackRock's latest report, "Re-Underwriting Bitcoin", here are the key takeaways 👇

▶️ Reasons behind BTC's dump to $60k. The price drop isn't a fundamental flaw of Bitcoin itself, but rather a market flush. The drivers: deleveraging and capital rotation into the AI sector.

▶️ The dual nature of the asset. BTC often correlates with risk-on assets, yet during severe crises, it acts as a reliable safe haven.

▶️ Inflation hedge. Against the backdrop of surging national debt and fiat currency debasement, Bitcoin remains a viable long-term global alternative.

✅ BlackRock’s recommendation. Adding a 1–2% BTC allocation to a traditional conservative portfolio has historically boosted overall returns.

Notably, BlackRock is adding Bitcoin ETF shares to its own conservative funds. Currently, BlackRock entities hold over 14 million IBIT shares (~$538M).

Wall Street giants are also holding BTC ETFs (Q2 data):
🟢 Morgan Stanley boosted its position by 23% (to 16.5M shares)
🟢 JPMorgan increased its stake by 25% (to 10.4M shares)

💬 BlackRock isn't just recommending holding an allocation in BTC, the financial giant is actively practicing what it preaches. While retail panics over the threat of another dip, Wall Street is quietly accumulating and holding Bitcoin for the long haul.

2024–2025: Everything played out with surgical precision.
2026–2027: We are following the exact same script.

⚡ The start of the new cycle in October 2026

Looks like we are going according to plan ☝️

Here is where the crypto market stands today:
– The largest green candles since we entered the downtrend in 2025
– Increased trading volume (this is critical)
– A strong breakout to the upside from the sideways range we have been stuck in since the start of summer

🕑 Over the past few weeks, market sentiment felt as if another drop was imminent. Twitter was flooded with dozens of videos highlighting chart patterns pointing down. In fairness, there was logic to it: we were locked in a prolonged downtrend, our local highs kept getting lower, and there was zero genuine bull demand.

Where are we now? It looks very much like we have broken the downtrend that started in 2025. A pump and buying pressure of this scale isn't just a move to liquidate the bears.

🧪 This rally is being linked to the US Treasury’s plans to buy back long-term Treasury bonds. It is somewhat surprising, given that crypto historically reacts after the fact – liquidity takes time to trickle down to our market. So what happens once that liquidity actually starts flowing in?

The timeline and exact scale of the program remain unclear for now; they should provide clarity on this by autumn. However, connecting the dots – Trump's Fed appointee, strong PMI numbers, US midterm elections, dozens of other small yet critical factors, and the overall necessity for QE – points toward one clear outcome: surging liquidity, leading to the full-blown bull run we have all been waiting for.

In June, Trump made over 1,000 trades: his main purchases were Visa, Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard, and Cintas 🧚‍♀️

Historically, members of Congress are the most successful traders, and Trump has become the most active and successful president in the stock market.

You can track the trades of the American elite via:
🔵 White House Disclosures Archives: Shows annual disclosures and Periodic Transaction Reports (PTRs) for the president, vice president, and high-ranking officials.
🔵 U.S. House Office of the Clerk: Lets you search financial disclosure reports on trades made by House members and their families in compliance with the STOCK Act.
🔵 U.S. Senate Financial Disclosure: Discloses senators' transactions involving stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments.
🔵 SEC EDGAR Company Search: Tracks direct insider trades if a politician owns a substantial stake in a public company. Reports are published the fastest here, within 2 business days.

The resources above are official platforms where all data is stored in clunky PDFs, though any AI can quickly parse these reports for you. Alternatively, you can use private third-party services that parse these inconvenient PDFs automatically, but charge a paid subscription for it.

🏭 The global economy is undergoing a fundamental structural shift. The last 30 years (from 1990 to 2020) were defined by disinflationary trends, but we are now entering an era of high inflation, increased price volatility, and long-term interest rate hikes.

I came across an interesting interview with Lacy Hunt – one of the most distinguished living macroeconomists and a former Fed economist.

Here are the key takeaways you need to know:

1️⃣ Why are store prices continuing to rise and won't come back down?
For the past 30 years, we lived in a uniquely cheap world thanks to China's integration into global trade. Corporations built factories where labor cost pennies, driving down the cost of everything from T-shirts to smartphones. That era is officially over. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the world is fragmenting into opposing blocs. Manufacturing is being rushed back to expensive Western countries, and instead of relying on efficient "just-in-time" logistics, companies are forced to stockpile inventory "just in case." Expensive labor and severed supply chains will serve as a powerful engine for inflation for decades to come.

2️⃣ What about Artificial Intelligence? Won't technology make everything cheaper?
Many hope that AI will replace workers, boost productivity, and make goods dirt cheap. That is a dangerous illusion. Right now, the AI revolution requires colossal physical resources: energy, chips, new data centers, and tons of copper. AI is burning through massive amounts of real capital today, driving up raw material and energy prices, while any hypothetical economic payoff is still a long way off.

3️⃣ What is happening to our savings, and why are the rich getting richer?
The government is spending massive amounts of money it doesn't have – the US budget deficit has reached a staggering $2.1 trillion in peacetime. To finance this spending, the Fed is essentially running covert money printing. This creates a K-shaped economy: the wealthy, who own stocks and real estate, get richer as asset markets inflate. � Everyday people get poorer. Inflation acts as the ultimate hidden tax, eroding real incomes and purchasing power.

� The main takeaway: persistent market growth, inflation, and severe market swings are our new normal.
By understanding the new rules of the game, you can profit across various assets—stocks, crypto – since they are bound to rise as fiat currency continues to devalue.

The world has changed, and the old rules of saving no longer work ⌛

🤖 By 2033, global electricity demand driven by AI advancements will reach a record level of ~315 gigawatts – an increase of +1,100% compared to 2025.

Even without such rapid AI growth, the world still needs data centers for everything we currently have and will have in the future.

Keeping an eye on energy companies... 💡

‼️ Bill Gates warns: AI can no longer be stopped, so we must reshape the economy and the rules of the game in advance.

Artificial intelligence will become either the greatest equalizer ever invented or the worst source of inequity.

AI Threats:

🟠 Mass displacement of people from the labor market, starting with office workers, followed later by manual labor

🟠 Growing inequality: technology and capital owners could capture the vast majority of AI's benefits

🟠 Cheaper cyberattacks, scams, deepfakes, propaganda, and biological threats

🟠 Risks of autonomous weapons and losing control over advanced AI systems

🟠 Children becoming dependent on AI companions, leading to a decline in independent thinking skills

What needs to be done:

⏺ Establish national and international regulatory frameworks for AI

⏺ Reach agreements on key rules among major global powers, primarily the US and China

⏺ Introduce the "Human Reserved" principle, deliberately preserving certain professions exclusively for humans

⏺ Levy taxes on AI and robots that replace human workers

⏺ Allocate these funds toward retraining programs and social safety nets

💬 Let’s venture to disagree with Bill. Personal computers and the Internet didn't leave people jobless; they became productivity-boosting tools and spawned entirely new industries.

Only those who ignore AI and fail to leverage it to reach the next level will be left on the sidelines of technological progress.

The top 10 US companies now account for 40% of the S&P 500's total market cap, hovering near an all-time record.

Everyone is panicking about this, but consider that these same 10 companies generate 38% of the S&P 500's total earnings. There is no real reason to worry—everything is fine, and equities will keep climbing. On top of that, NVIDIA's latest earnings report confirmed it: all systems go, and profits are growing.

🥇 What about crypto?

Liquidity Inflow: The US Treasury has signaled its readiness to deploy $1T from the Treasury General Account (TGA) for buybacks of long-duration US Treasuries. This means fresh liquidity flowing into crypto—pure rocket fuel for us 🧪

Timing the Inflow: The current crypto rally is front-running these expectations. Officially, the Treasury’s buybacks won't kick off until September 9. The full scale and timeline will become clearer between September and November, while a major covert liquidity injection to refinance US debt can be expected starting around October 2026.

Liquidity Lag: It takes about 6 months for the crypto market to fully absorb a liquidity injection into the system. However, the effects will already start showing up in about 3 months.

Get ready, the coming year is going to be massive for those of us who know how to make money in crypto. Start picking out your Lambo 🔥

Over the past 120 years, the world has survived world wars, pandemics, and severe crises, yet the Dow Jones always ended up higher in the end.

What's the alpha here?
• The US market only goes up in the long run—it’s inherently a bull market, so to speak. Buy the dips.

• When everyone screams that the sky is falling, it means absolutely nothing. If you have cash at moments like that, you buy.

🚨 Basically, that’s all you need to know about investing in equities. But if only it were that simple... Even with all this data at hand, people keep making the same mistakes.

88% of S&P 500 companies have already reported. Earnings are up 50.4%, marking the highest growth since Q2 2021.

During the dot-com bubble, stock prices were surging while earnings were dropping. That’s not the case today. Good luck shorting this market 🕡

🏭 The world is rapidly saying goodbye to free trade and cheap goods. The era of globalization is being replaced by hard-nosed economic statecraft, hello, Trump style, and neo-mercantilism.

This means that a state's primary goal is shifting toward reshoring manufacturing, securing control over critical resources, and bolstering national security.

🚨 Came across an insightful interview with macro strategist Michael Every. Here are the most pressing issues that will affect each of us in the coming years:

1. The New Economic Statecraft
🟠 The abandonment of globalization. The US is dismantling the very global architecture it built, pivoting toward neo-mercantilism (active state intervention to protect domestic capital). The goal of state policy is no longer maximizing corporate quarterly profits at all costs, but rather reshoring factories and strengthening national power.

🟠 Economic statecraft entails the state leveraging every available tool, tariffs, regulations, sanctions, and monetary mechanisms, to achieve geopolitical objectives.

2. The Geopolitics of Stablecoins
🟠 US Treasury nominee/official Scott Bessent has pushed an approach of buying back long-term debt by issuing short-term Treasury bills (T-bills). This helps suppress long-term interest rates and finance the budget deficit.

🟠 The Genius Act and Clarity Act are laying the groundwork for stablecoins (such as Tether and Circle) to achieve mainstream adoption. Because stablecoins must be backed by safe, highly liquid assets, their issuers will effectively be compelled to absorb trillions of dollars in US T-bills.

🟠 Stablecoins will become an instrument of the "with us or against us" doctrine. The US will present emerging economies with a choice: conduct cross-border trade using regulated US dollar digital tokens (benefiting the US financial system) or face restricted access to global markets. Stablecoins generate non-inflationary liquidity that gets absorbed within the US financial system, allowing Americans to continue securing tangible goods from around the world affordably.

3. Energy Realism and the Priority of the Physical World
🟠 For the past 40 years, the financial sector sat on a pedestal. In this emerging paradigm, digital ledger entries cannot build physical infrastructure or pump crude. Physical constraints are primary. The world is not suffering from a shortage of crude oil per se, but rather a bottleneck in refinery capacity. The US is facing a severe refining deficit.

🟠 To secure heavy crude for domestic refineries in the event of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the US has redirected up to half of Venezuela's oil output, which previously went to China, toward itself.

🟠 The US is waging full-scale economic warfare against Iran, aiming to choke off its oil exports entirely to cut off state revenue funding the military and regional proxies. As a result, inflation in Iran has surpassed 80%, and its currency is collapsing. Further US-led escalation is anticipated following the midterms.

Part 2 coming next 👇

Continuing the breakdown of macro strategist Michael Every's key thesis points: the reality of the physical world, technology bottlenecks, and emerging geopolitical flashpoints.

4. The Tech Bottleneck: AI, Copper, and Nuclear Power
🟠 US residents are beginning to push back against the construction of massive AI data centers due to localized spikes in electricity rates.

🟠 Upgrading the power grid to accommodate the surge in AI demand will require immense volumes of copper. One key solution being pursued is deploying Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors to power data centers directly, bypassing the public grid altogether.

5. Trump's Space Race
🟠 An executive push aims to ramp up US space launches to 1,000 per year (roughly three launches per week). The strategic objective is space dominance, lunar development, off-world resource extraction, and radically lowering the cost to orbit. This technological dominance is designed to reinforce the supremacy of the US dollar and dollar-backed stablecoins globally.

6. Escalation Risks: Ukraine and NATO
🟠 Reports suggest North Korea may deploy up to 50,000 troops to Ukraine in support of the Russian Federation.

🟠 Ukrainian drone strikes have significantly cut Russian refined petroleum exports. This pressure could prompt Moscow to escalate or initiate further mobilization rounds following parliamentary elections.

🟠 Risks remain that Russia could stage a border provocation against a Baltic NATO member state to test Alliance resolve, potentially timed alongside coordinated Iranian pressure on US interests or bases abroad.

What are your thoughts on this? Plenty of food for thought. ⌛️

Fact: During the first green August in bear market history, whales holding 100+ BTC added 60 000 BTC 🐳

At the same time, retail was actively selling:
• 1–100 BTC wallets dumped 33,000 BTC
• Wallets with under 1 BTC were down 14,000 BTC

Do the whales know something?