How to Know the Fed's Rate Decision Before It Happens 🤔

The Fed left rates unchanged today at 3.50-3.75%. I knew they will do it two weeks ago. Not from insider information, from a free tool anyone can use.

🔍 FedWatch reads the price of fed funds futures contracts traded on the CME Group exchange. These are contracts where real money gets placed on what the Fed will do at each meeting. The prices imply probabilities. A 92% chance of no change means traders with actual positions on the line have priced no change as near-certain. That is different from an analyst opinion, which costs nothing to hold.

The tool shows the probability split for each possible outcome at the next meeting: hold, cut by 25bps, cut by 50bps, hike, and so on. Below that, you get the full rate path implied across the next 13 FOMC meetings. This is where it gets genuinely useful, because it tells you not just what the market expects next week, but where rates are expected to be in 2 years 📆

The history tab matters too. Watching how probabilities shift over weeks tells you when the market's view is changing direction. A cut that was priced at 15% three weeks ago and sits at 60% today is more interesting than either number alone.

🕯 What you do with this information depends on how you trade. If the value isn't immediately clear to you, that's a signal to read more before putting money near macro events. Start with the #FAQ tag on this channel.

#FAQ

North Korea helped make April DeFi's worst month in history 😔

April recorded 29 DeFi hacks in 30 days, with $635M in total losses. Nearly 90% of the damage came from two attacks: Drift lost $285M, KelpDAO lost $293M. Both hacks now trace back to North Korea's Lazarus Group.

🇰🇵 For North Korea, crypto theft is a state industry. The regime pulled an estimated $2.02B from crypto in 2025, bringing its all-time total past $6.75B. Lazarus doesn't only exploit code. The group reportedly embedded fake developers inside roughly 40 DeFi projects over several years, mapping their infrastructure before striking.

The structural problem is bigger than any individual attack. DeFi removed the intermediaries that traditional finance spent decades learning to use as a last line of defense. Most protocols launched without the security baseline a mid-sized bank would treat as a minimum 🤷‍♀️

AI tools that scan for vulnerabilities at scale will make this worse before it gets better. Every major breach forces protocols to patch what they should have caught at launch. Eventually the sector will be more secure. How many people lose their savings in the process is a separate conversation nobody wants to have 💰

@Coin_Post

Tether made $1.04B in Q1 🤑

Tether posted $1.04B in net profit for Q1 2026, during one of the more volatile quarters in recent memory. The reserve buffer hit a record $8.23B ↗️

Total USDT in circulation: around $183B. The breakdown of what backs it as of March 31:

⏺$141B in US Treasuries

⏺$20B in physical gold

⏺$7B in Bitcoin.

The model behind those numbers is almost offensively simple. Take dollars from people who want stablecoins, park them in Treasuries, keep the yield, pay nothing to holders.

That’s it. Revenue doesn’t depend on market direction, trading volume, or sentiment. It just depends on interest rates and circulation size, both of which have been working in Tether’s favor for years.

💰 For full-year 2025, Tether reported over $10B in net profit. Coinbase, one of the largest public crypto companies, made $1.26B over the same period. Coinbase runs thousands of employees, a full brokerage operation, compliance teams across multiple jurisdictions. Meanwhile, Tether has around 300 employees.

🤔 No surprise that people close to Trump have (reportedly) been looking for a way into the company. A business that prints this quietly, in any market condition, with almost no credit exposure, doesn’t show up often.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

@Coin_Post

How Crypto Bridges Work and Why They Keep Getting Exploited 🤔

Bridges are the most exploited infrastructure in DeFi. Over $2 billion has been stolen through bridge hacks, more than any other category in crypto.

A bridge moves tokens between two blockchains that can't verify each other's state. Ethereum has no way to confirm what happens on Solana, so the bridge makes that verification happen through its own system.

🤔 The most common design is lock-and-mint. You deposit ETH into a contract on Ethereum and the bridge mints wrapped ETH on the another blockchain. To move back, you burn the wrapped token and the original gets unlocked.

Two other designs exist:

🔵Liquidity network bridges hold pools on both chains and you withdraw from the destination pool instead of receiving a minted token.

🟢Message-passing bridges relay arbitrary instructions between chains rather than moving assets directly, with the attack surface in the code that decides whether a message is valid.

The exploits always track the design.

1️⃣Ronin exploit was lock-and-mint: validators controlled the locked pool, so compromising 5/9 keys was enough to authorize $625 million in fraudulent withdrawals.

2️⃣Wormhole used a message-passing layer for verification, and a forged guardian signature let the attacker mint 120,000 ETH on Solana without locking anything on Ethereum, costing $320 million.

3️⃣Liquidity network bridges haven't been hit at the same scale: THORChain was exploited three times in one month in 2021, but lost only $13 million across the attacks. Each hack could only drain specific pools at a time rather than the full protocol.

#FAQ

Six bridges you need in DeFi 🔗

A bridge moves tokens from one blockchain to another. You need one when your assets are on Ethereum but you want to use a protocol on Arbitrum, or when you're on Solana and need funds on Base. Without bridges, every chain is an isolated island. Below are 6 apps covering every bridging scenario you'll run into in DeFi 👇

Free bridges for USDC and USDT:

⏺USDC

⏺USDT

Both take zero fee from the transfer amount. CCTP runs on Circle's native protocol: it burns USDC on the source chain and mints fresh USDC on the destination. No wrapped tokens, no slippage. USDT0 does the same for Tether via LayerZero's OFT standard, so what arrives is native USDT, not a bridged copy. You only pay gas.

Aggregators:

⏺Jumper

⏺Bungee

These scan available bridge and swap routes and return the best option. Good default when you're moving any token between major chains and don't want to search the best route manually.

Gas bridges:

⏺Gas.zip

⏺Smolrefuel

Built for one specific problem: you're on a chain with no native token to pay fees. Both let you send a few dollars of gas to any supported chain.

@Coin_Post

How Bitcoin Works When There Are No More Coins to Mine ⛏

Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins. About 20.023 million have been mined so far, leaving just under 1 million left. New coins enter circulation through block rewards: miners currently earn 3.125 BTC every ten minutes.

Every four years that amount gets cut in half, and around 2140 the last fraction of a bitcoin will be mined 🟠

After that, block rewards go to zero. Miners will earn only transaction fees paid by users. That is a real shift since fees today are a small slice of miner revenue. If they are not high enough to keep mining profitable, hash rate drops and the network becomes easier to attack.

❗️ Whether fees fill that gap depends on how much activity the network carries by then. Second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network could help by batching transactions and keeping base-layer demand high enough to sustain fees. That question will not be answered for over a century, but each halving is a smaller version of the same test.

One number worth keeping in mind: up to 20% of all mined BTC is estimated to be permanently lost. The real circulating supply is already below the nominal figures, and that gap only widens over time.

#FAQ

3 airdrops, one trade 🪂

Hyperliquid is the largest DEX in crypto by volume, and it's slowly moving into prediction markets. Outcome recently launched daily BTC direction contracts built on top of it — Hyperliquid provides the liquidity layer, Outcome is just the interface. You pick up or down, markets settle every day at 06:00 UTC, no leverage, no liquidations.

🤭 38.8% of HYPE supply is still reserved for the community. Hyperliquid has a history of rewarding active users, and trading on their prediction market is the kind of activity that tends to count. Outcome hasn't launched a token yet either.

Neither has Polymarket. That's where the strategy comes in. Polymarket runs the same BTC up/down market. You take one side on Hyperliquid/Outcome and the opposite on Polymarket. One leg wins, one loses, you end up roughly flat on money. In exchange, you're farming three platforms at once: Hyperliquid, Outcome, and Polymarket 😇

If you can't find matching markets on different platforms to hedge across, the simpler version is to hedge your Hyperliquid position on a second Hyperliquid account and your Polymarket position on a second Polymarket account. Fully flat, all three still running 👍

#earn

Binance launched a pretty cool withdraw protection feature 🔐

Now you can lock your account from all on-chain withdrawals for up to 7 days. Nobody moves funds during that window, including you. By default, you can't unlock early either, though there's an optional setting that lets you reverse it ahead of schedule if you need the flexibility.

🤔 It's marketed as protection against physical coercion, which is a bit hard to picture in practice. If someone has kidnapped you and is demanding crypto, a 7-day withdrawal lock probably isn't your most pressing problem.

The real use case is more straightforward. Your unlocked phone gets stolen, you grab another device, lock the account, then take your time logging out of Binance on the stolen phone and moving funds somewhere safe. For that scenario, it's actually a solid feature 👍

@Coin_Post

Intel just hit a 25-year high 📈

Almost 2 years ago, Intel's CEO was posting Proverbs quotes on X while the stock collapsed 37% in 2 days. Back then it was down 75% from its ATH, dividend gone, workforce getting cut. Absolute garbage, and nobody wanted it.

🤑 It seems his prayers were answered, because Intel is now surprising the market with its growth. The stock is up 171% in 25 days and trading at prices not seen since the year 2000. Three things drove it:

1️⃣The U.S. government and Nvidia committed billions to Intel's foundry business, removing the "runs out of runway" scenario.

2️⃣The first chip built on Intel's new 18A process entered production, and Apple reportedly opened talks about U.S. manufacturing, turning the foundry from a liability into a real strategic bet.

3️⃣Revenue followed: Data Center and AI sales up 22% in Q1 2026.

People look at a chart like this and think "I'm so dumb for not buying it back then, it was such a steal." It wasn't. In 2024 Intel was genuinely bad: weak margins, no dividend, a foundry bet that looked like it might never pay off.

❗️ The stock was cheap because the market was pricing in a real chance the turnaround would fail. Then the fundamentals changed, and the stock followed. Hindsight makes it look obvious. But stocks and assets don't exist in stasis. What's true about a company today might be completely wrong in 18 months, in either direction.

@Coin_Post

NotebookLM is the most useful free AI tool most people ignore 🔍

Google built this free AI tool to do one thing: answer questions about your own documents. Upload a PDF, a YouTube video, a Google Doc, a web page. NotebookLM reads all of it and becomes an expert only on what you gave it. Every answer links back to the exact sentence it came from. No hallucinated citations or confident fabrications.

📕 The use cases are obvious once you try it. Drop in a 300-page annual report and ask it to pull every mention of something specific. Or paste in 5 YouTube links on any topic, AI will pull the transcripts automatically and let you query across all of them at once. For a research paper, it will explain the methodology in plain English and point you to the exact paragraph it drew from.

There's also an Audio Overview feature. Feed it any set of documents and it generates a podcast-style conversation summarizing the material. I've used it to turn 80-page whitepapers into something I can actually listen to on a commute. The voices are slightly synthetic but the content tracks the source accurately 👍

#AI

Strategy might sell Bitcoin to cover the cost of buying it 😱

On Strategy's Q1 earnings call, Michael Saylor (or Sellor, as he may soon be known) said the company would "probably sell some Bitcoin" to fund dividend obligations. Strategy also posted a $12.54B net loss for the quarter. This is the same guy who was posting "Sell a kidney, but keep the Bitcoin" a year ago.

😠 If you've been following the channel, you already know how STRC works. Strategy raised $8.5B by issuing preferred shares with an 11% yield, then used that money to buy Bitcoin. The mechanic: issue STRC → buy BTC → BTC rises → issue more STRC → buy more BTC. Repeat until something breaks.

STRC created a fixed liability of around $1.5B a year. In a rising market, you cover it by issuing more shares. When demand for the paper dries up and there's no cash on hand, the loop just runs backwards: borrow money to buy Bitcoin → Bitcoin drops → sell Bitcoin → pay back the people who funded the Bitcoin purchase 🟠

@Coin_Post

Elon Musk paid $10B in taxes in one year

The man who fled California still pays California taxes...

🕑 Musk says he paid over $10B in federal and state taxes in a single year, more than anyone in recorded history. He moved to Texas to escape California's rates, but still owes California taxes for every day he physically spends there. His combined rate on stock option exercises hits around 45%.

He said: "I will probably end up paying trillions in taxes."

The top 1% of U.S. earners, those making over $663K a year, paid $854.5B in federal income taxes in 2022, which was 40% of everything the government collected. The bottom 50% of earners paid $64.1B, about 3% of the total.

📊 That 40% share was 33% in 2001. The bottom 50% covered nearly 5% back then. As wealth concentrated at the top, so did the tax bill.

The popular argument from "eat the rich" crowd is that billionaires pay nothing in taxes. $854.5B from 1.5 million people makes that a hard case to argue. I'm not saying the system is fair, but "they pay nothing" isn't the right critique for sure 🤣

Hantavirus killed 3 people on a cruise ship, 20 countries exposed. Is this COVID 2.0? 😷

A Dutch expedition ship, the MV Hondius, is at the center of a hantavirus outbreak that went global this week. Passengers developed severe respiratory illness on board in April. WHO has confirmed 5 infections and 3 deaths among people from over 20 countries.

🦠 Hantavirus comes from rodents. The strain here, Andes virus, is the only known variant with any documented human-to-human transmission, and even then only through prolonged close contact.

This strain carries a fatality rate around 40% in severe cases while local European hantavirus variants are well under 15%, with no meaningful person-to-person spread.

Hantavirus is now one of the most discussed topics on X, with people drawing direct comparisons to the early days of COVID. WHO held a dedicated press briefing this week and the message was clear: global risk is low, no large epidemic is expected, this is not coronavirus 😌

I don't expect this to have any impact on the markets, but the media always stands to gain a lot by stirring up panic to keep readers' attention...

We’ve all seen those influencer-style lists before: “Top 5 coins with huge upside!” or “Best coins to buy before the next pump!” 😯

But what about the opposite?

🤔 What about a list of popular coins that might already be dead in practice? Coins that still have huge loyal communities, but aren’t going anywhere and may slowly bleed to zero over time.

Check out the recent video that looks at 4 “crypto cults”: projects that still have believers, but are fundamentally dead 🍄