Bitcoin falls below $109,000 🔽

$447 million worth of longs was liquidated in the last 24 hours.

The Swing Failure Pattern remains undefeated 😮

Remember YZY memecoin launched by Kanye West? 🤣

It's down 81.7% since August 21, and most people who bought it lost between $1 and $1,000 📉

Just look at the stats. Out of 70,000+ total traders:

⏺ 51,862 lost $1–$1k
⏺ 5,269 lost $1k–$10k
⏺ 1,025 lost $10k–$100k
⏺ 108 lost $100k–$1M
⏺ 3 people lost $1M+

⏺Less than 2,600 people made more than $1,000 in profit. Of those people, only 99 took most of the gains, pocketing more than $100k in profit each.

This game is rigged. Don't buy bundled memecoins promoted by celebrities, it always ends badly ❗️

@CoinPost

Jesse Livermore is remembered as one of the greatest speculators in history. He made his name by shorting the 1907 panic and again in 1929 when Great Depression started 😮

But his life shows the cost of chasing greatness. Livermore didn’t just make fortunes — he lost them too. Over and over again. His net worth chart looks like a rollercoaster of billions in today’s money 🎢

🕯 Being up $1.6M while 23 years old and then being in the hole for $16,837 at 24 is crazy. In 1929, he peaked at $1.64 billion! But just five years later, it was down to $104M.

For almost 40 years his life was like this — massive wins followed by brutal crashes. Few people can imagine what it feels like to make hundreds of millions, lose nearly all of it, then come back again and again and again...

Jesse once said:

“It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!”

🏆 That’s why Livermore is a legend. Not because he was always rich, but because he took risks on a scale almost nobody dares to. To play like this, you have to accept volatility that would break most people.

Your net worth will never grow in a straight line to the right and up if you decide to make a living by speculating.

😨 If you can’t handle wild swings, don’t try to be like him. Don't try to make a living by trading. Study him, learn from him, but know the price he paid.

Would you like to learn more about Jesse's approach to trading and the principles he followed? Let me know in the comments 💬

What Jesse Livermore Can Teach Traders Today 🤔

Ok guys, since you clearly showed interest under the last post, here are some of the key trading rules and philosophies of Wall Street legend Jesse Livermore 👇

1️⃣Trade with the trend. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are. He only entered when the chart confirmed the direction. He was buying only when stocks were already moving up and shorting only when they were already breaking down.

2️⃣Be patient. His fortune came from sitting tight once he was in a winning position. Livermore said the big money was never made in constant trading, but in holding strong trends and letting profits grow.

3️⃣Cut losses quickly. He was one of the first high-profile traders to popularize the use of stop-loss. If a trade went against him, he exited without hesitation.

4️⃣Don’t overtrade. He often sat in cash for weeks waiting for the right setup. For him, not trading was better than forcing a trade.

5️⃣Scale in, not all in. He started small and only added when the market proved him right. This way he risked less at the start and pressed winners once momentum confirmed.

6️⃣Master yourself. Livermore believed human nature — fear, greed, impatience — was the biggest enemy of every trader. He saw discipline and psychology as more important than any chart or tip.

📚 Much of this wisdom is captured in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", and in Livermore’s own book "How to Trade in Stocks". These works remain essential reading for anyone who wants to understand his approach to speculation.

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All it takes is $686, a dream, and a bit of insider knowledge 🤣

What Is the Bitcoin Power Law Model?

The Power Law model applies a simple linear regression on Bitcoin’s log price over time, then extends it into two parallel bands. The lower band acts as long-term support, while the upper band represents resistance. Bitcoin’s price has historically oscillated within this channel for over a decade 🟠

📈 The model implies a gradual but predictable growth curve. According to its projection.

After 2028, the model suggests Bitcoin should never fall below $100,000 again. Extending further, it points to $1,000,000 being reached between 2028 and 2037, after which the price would remain above that level.

🧮 While the Power Law offers an elegant way to contextualize Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, it is based entirely on past performance. Structural shifts could break the model. It should be seen as a framework for understanding long-term price trends, not some kind of forecast ❗️

This indicator is only usable for high-timeframe investing. You can use it for free here 🔗

#FAQ

The Sunk Cost Fallacy in Crypto 😐

The sunk cost fallacy is one of the most common traps in investing. It makes us hold something only because we already put money, time, or effort into it, instead of judging it by current reality ℹ️

Think of a hyped altcoin. The team is late, the chart is bleeding, BTC and ETH are stronger. Rationally you should rotate out, yet many keep holding because selling feels like admitting defeat 🙅‍♂️

🤦 This is the sunk cost fallacy. We anchor to past effort rather than comparing better opportunities. Loss aversion and commitment bias make it even harder to let go.

The solution is simple. Ask yourself: if you sold today, would you buy this coin back tomorrow. If the answer is no, you are only holding because of sunk costs.

❗️ Focus on future potential, not past mistakes. The next decision matters more than the last one.

@CoinPost

The World Liberty Financial ($WLFI) token is officially tradable with an FDV of $26.4 billion 🤩

🤔 Even given that the Trump family is backing this project (nominally), there's a 99% chance the chart will look like the sketch above in a few years/months 📉

Should You Use Leverage in Crypto Trading? ⚖️

Leverage is what ruins most traders. The problem is not the tool itself but the way people use it. Too much risk, too much size, and the account is gone 😣

🧠 Used correctly, leverage can optimize your capital. Imagine you have $20,000. Without leverage, you could simply buy $20,000 of BTC on spot.

With 5x leverage, you only need $4,000 in margin to get the same exposure. That leaves $16,000 free in stablecoins. You can farm yield with them and add margin if BTC pulls back 20% 🧮

This way, instead of going all-in and locking you liquidity in BTC, leverage gives you more flexibility. It is a capital efficiency tool, not a shortcut to riches. I would advise beginners never to use leverage greater than 10x ❗️

#FAQ

The Ultimate 5 Indicators for Timing Bitcoin Cycles 📊

Here are the five indicators that matter most if you want to buy Bitcoin near the lows and sell into euphoria 👇

⏺ MVRV Ratio – Compares market value to realized value to show when BTC is over or undervalued.

⏺ Puell Multiple – Tracks miner revenue against yearly averages to highlight stress or relief in mining.

⏺ Long Term Holder SOPR – Measures if long-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss.

⏺ Net Unrealized Profit/Loss – Shows overall market psychology by comparing unrealized profits vs losses.

⏺ Bitcoin Power Law Model – Uses regression bands to frame BTC’s long-term price path.

These indicators are designed for long-term investing. They help you spot cycle bottoms and tops that happen every few years. They’re not useful for day trading or short-term moves ⚠️

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@CoinPost

Never Join Presales on X 👎

If an influencer posts a wallet address for presale or just token contract address, you are not early. You are being exit liquidity ❗️

Yesterday’s example says it all. Crypto influencer “kook” (presumably it was him) launched a presale and got away with around $140k after selling. He then rugged one more coin, deleted all tweets and started saying he was hacked.

🗣 This is the pattern. Random memecoin presales and rushed calls to “ape in.” This type of KOLs exist only to extract money from followers.

Protect your capital. In crypto there are no refunds 😐

In the last 30 years, $1 lost half its value 📉

But $1 in the S&P 500 grew into $19, even after inflation 📈

Find opportunities to increase your earnings and invest them, or doom yourself to poverty due to the endless devaluation of fiat money 🤷‍♀️

Why You Shouldn’t Try to Pick Stocks 🧠

On paper it always seems obvious which companies will win. Tech giants look unstoppable. Consumer brands look boring. The rational choice feels clear 🤔

But markets don’t work that way. In May 2010, Intel was a core player in computing while Monster was “just” an energy drink maker.

📈 Fifteen years later, a $1000 investment in Intel grew only 8% to $1080. The same $1000 in Monster grew 3169% to $31,690. All while the dollar itself lost 48% of its value.

Stories like this repeat across the market. What looks safe often underperforms. What looks trivial sometimes creates fortunes. Very few people can consistently predict which will be which.

😏 That is why, unless you are extremely skilled or an insider, trying to pick the next winner stock is usually a losing game. For most investors, the smarter path is to diversify and simply buy the index.

#FAQ

WLFI team freezes Justin Sun 😐

Trump’s backed World Liberty Financial just blacklisted Justin Sun’s wallet.

🔓 He now sits on 540M unlocked $WLFI tokens and 2.4B locked tokens, all frozen because the team claims “an exchange was using user tokens to dump and push down the price.”

🔍 The freeze came right after Sun moved $9M worth of WLFI to a CEX. And since launch just 3 days ago, the token is already down 46.7%.

There are rumors that Justin “borrowed” Huobi users’ WLFI tokens at 20% APR so he could dump them and exit his vesting bag early, cashing out nearly 80% of the presale allocation while the valuation of this worthless token was still high. But don’t worry, WLFI team has a “solution” 🤣

Not every day you see this kind of volatility on hourly candles 🔽

In just the past 60 minutes, $115M was liquidated across the crypto market. BTC alone dropped more than 2k in one move 🟠

📊 The trigger may have been today’s US jobs data. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since October 2021. This was easily the ugliest jobs report relative to expectations since Covid.

Two things stand out:

⏺ First, the numbers were so bad they likely threw everything in at once, knowing revisions are coming next week.

⏺ Second, the report now likely cements a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed and even puts 0.5% cut on the table in September 🇺🇸

The end: he lost it all 😵

Back in May I wrote about James Wynn — the guy who held the largest public perp DEX position ever worth over $1 billion.

💸 At the ATH he had over $100 million in liquid capital but he then gambled it all away.

After today's market dump, his last ETH long position was liquidated, leaving him with only $2,300 🫡

Michael Saylor’s Strategy will not be included in the S&P 500 😫

This decision shocked markets because inclusion would have forced massive passive inflows into the stock and, by extension, into Bitcoin exposure 🤑

Many traders were betting on this as a near guarantee 😣

Is Crypto a Ponzi Scheme? 🤔

A Ponzi scheme is a fraud where early investors are paid “returns” directly from deposits of new investors. There is no business, no external value. The operator promises profits, recycles incoming money, and the whole thing collapses once inflows dry up ❗️

🕯 Markets are different. Profits come from buying low and selling high in open exchange. There is no promise of payout, only voluntary trades at agreed prices.

🤑 Bitcoin and Ethereum fall into this second category. They are assets with open markets. Early buyers made money because later buyers valued them higher, just like with equities or real estate. That dynamic is speculation, not fraud.

🤷‍♀️ Even meme coins and rugs are not Ponzis. They are bad assets with no fundamental value. Early insiders dump on later buyers, but there is no operator promising fixed returns from new deposits. That makes them pump-and-dumps, not Ponzis.

The distinction is clear. Ponzi = guaranteed returns paid from new money. Markets = open price discovery where some win and some lose ❗️

#FAQ

In the past 17 years, total U.S. payroll employment has only turned negative three times 👇

⏺The 2008–09 financial crisis

⏺The COVID-19 shock in spring 2020

⏺June 2025 👀

Every previous time this has happened during a major market correction 📉

@CoinPost

Russia accuses US of debt trick with crypto 🏦

Putin’s adviser Anton Kobyakov claims Washington is using crypto to manage its $35 trillion debt. He argues the US promotes stablecoins to boost demand for Treasuries, then could devalue the dollar and wipe away part of its debt burden 🤔

🗓 He compared it to 1933, when the US "hiked" gold prices to devalue the dollar, and to 1971, when Nixon cut the gold peg. In both cases, debt pressures were eased by devaluation.

🤔 IMO, the theory makes some sense but is exaggerated. Stablecoins do create demand for Treasuries and extend dollar dominance, but they are far too small ($290B) to impact $35T in debt, for now...

But I still do think the US will push for USD stablecoins as a private-sector alternative to CBDCs, while China and the EU will rely on central bank issued digital fiat 💶

@CoinPost