The year is 2011. “Bitcoin will never reach $20 again. This is why I have liquidated my position in Bitcoins” 😭

I wonder what this guy is up to now

Newcomers often fall for the constant “we are so early” or “the real bull market hasn’t even started” lines from crypto influencers. These are designed to ignite FOMO within you and push people into buying without thinking, usually at the wrong time ‼️

The truth is different. Let's look at the facts: Bitcoin already did 7x from the cycle's lows, the total market cap is $4 trillion. Five coins are worth over $100 billion. And no, buying ETH when it's already hot will not make you insanely rich, it will at most double or triple your investment.

Contrary to what these influencers want you to believe, the real "once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity" for ETH was at $0.31 per coin during its ICO in 2014, not at today's price of $4,200.

📈 Yes, we are still in a bull market. Prices can go higher, and they likely will. However, we are deep into the cycle, and the easy money phase is behind us. The winners at this point are those who protect their capital and avoid fomo-driven plays.

When prices are low and we're deep in a bear market, you need to accumulate assets and increase your crypto exposure. When we're in a late-stage bull market, you need to slowly decrease your exposure and start exiting your long positions. Sadly, most people do the opposite in both cases 🤷‍♀️

@CoinPost

Spot-perp basis for yield 💰

Choppy market and you still want return without directional exposure? This is my go-to. Go long spot, short the perp in the same size, and harvest the carry while staying neutral. Example 👇

• Let's say you have $20,000
• Go to Hyperliquid perps.
• Buy $15,000 worth of HYPE on spot.
• Open $15,000 HYPE short position with 3x leverage using $5000 in margin.
• Use your spot HYPE coins to earn additional APR by depositing them in Pendle PTs to earn a fixed yield.

🧮 The result:

🟢Spot yield (Pendle PT fixed yield 13.9% on $15,000)
= $2,085 per year ≈ $5.71 per day

🟢Perp funding (18% on $15,000 notional)
= $2,700 per year ≈ $7.40 per day

🟢In total you get paid:

$4,785 per year ≈ $13.11 per day = 23.9% APR 🤔

But be careful: funding can invert. Avoid high leverage, set price alerts to not get liquidated, and prefer splitting spot and perp across wallets or subaccounts.

When I like it: after strong pumps when funding is rich, or during newsy weeks when basis stretches. When funding normalizes or goes negative for a while, I close it and wait for the next window 👀

Don't be discouraged if you're not happy with your results in this market. There is always a next trade 🧠

Price does not matter as much as timing. The best entries show up at inflection points when open interest gets flushed and sentiment flips from despair to euphoria or back. See that clearly and it gets easier to take profits and close a trade without any doubts.

😱 FOMO shows up when you think chances are running out. Treat the market as an endless stream of opportunities and you can act calmly, not reactively. Process over price. Make a plan, execute it, move on. The next trade is just around the corner 🧘

That's what I call a healthy pullback 🤣

Stop buying low cap bundled scams with hope of getting 1,000x. You will be farmed 99% of the time

A forgotten seed phrase just became a billion-dollar lesson 😨

Estonian financier Rain Lohmus was an early believer in Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the 2015 ETH ICO he invested around $75,000.

🔑 He later lost the seed phrase from his wallet and at today’s prices those coins are valued near $1.14B.

Takeaway: self-custody is powerful but unforgiving. Back up seed phrases in multiple secure places ❗️

OKB token of OKX exchange ripped to a new all-time high, up about 205% in thirty minutes 🔼

This happened after OKX announced that it burned 65.2M OKB tokens (around 75% of total supply) to cap max supply at 21M.

❗️ Moves like this are why risk controls matter. One headline can double a coin price in minutes and liquidation chain will follow. If you trade with cross margin and no stop, a single candle can wipe the whole account.

🟢Always set a stop loss order so a surprise pump/dump does not take you out of the game

🟢Prefer isolated margin if possible

🟢Always assume the worst-case scenario is on the table 🧠

BTC HITS A NEW ATH OF $123,500 🔼

Nayib Bukele posted El Salvador’s Bitcoin PnL again. He is the president of El Salvador and this is their national BTC reserve unrealized profit 💸

The last few times he did this, BTC topped within a few days and then corrected 📉

BTC just hit a new ATH after July's previous local top. Will Bukele's curse spoil our fun? 😱

Hot inflation print just hit and market flushed hard 🔽

📊 Producer Price Index rose 0.9% from June and pushed the annual rate to 3.3%. Economists looked for 0.2% in July and 2.4% year over year.

BTC is now down 5.46% from yesterday’s new all time high. That level just turned into resistance again.

More than $546 million in overleveraged long positions were liquidated in the last hour ⚰️

Some yields right now are just too good to ignore 💸

🤑 On Binance Simple Earn, you can park USDC and get 12.2% APR. Fully liquid, withdraw anytime, no lockups.

🤑 ETH maxi? GammaSwap’s gETH vault is pulling in 21.6% APY from AMM yield.

Two plays, all live now. Pick your yield and let the coins do the work. Save for later 📌

Top 5 tools for analyzing crypto projects 🔍

Price charts only tell part of the story. These tools help you dig into real usage, fundamentals, unlocks, and on-chain activity 👇

🔍 Token Terminal — Protocol revenue, fees, and financial ratios. The go-to for fundamentals.

🔍 DeFiLlama — Best free app in crypto. TVL, yield strategies, bridge flows, protofol, fees and L2 activity across nearly every chain.

🔍 Dropstab — Clear unlock schedules and vesting calendars to gauge future sell pressure.

🔍 Skynet — Security dashboards by Certik that provides risk scores, giving you a quick read on a project’s safety.

🔍 Santiment — On-chain, dev, and social data to catch trends and signals before the market does.

📌 Save this list for later

How to Size Your Bets Properly 🤔

Many traders lose in the long term not because they pick bad assets, but because they size their bets badly. Risk too little and you grow slowly. Risk too much and one streak of losses wipes you out. The Kelly Criterion solves this problem.

🧮 It’s a formula from probability theory that shows how much of your capital to risk when you have an edge. The idea is to maximize long-term growth while minimizing the risk of ruin.

The theory also explains why overbetting is fatal: the more you exceed the Kelly amount, the faster your chances of blowing up rise.

Underbetting is safer but leaves profits on the table. That’s why many traders use “half-Kelly” to balance growth and volatility 🤔

For example, say you have a $10,000 portfolio and a strategy that wins 60% of the time at 1:1 R/R ratio.

👉 Kelly would suggest risking about $2,000 per trade. Not $500, which grows too slowly, and not $5,000, which risks ruin — but the balanced middle.

⏺f = the fraction of your bankroll to risk. This is the answer the formula gives.

⏺b = the odds or payout ratio. For example, if you risk $100 to win $100, then b = 1. If you risk $100 to win $500, then b = 5.

⏺p = the probability of winning. This is how often your strategy works (like 60%).

⏺q = the probability of losing, which is simply 1 − p. If p = 0.6, then q = 0.4.

#FAQ

What Is a Swing Failure Pattern? 📉

😨 An SFP happens when price pushes above a key high (or below a key low), only to reverse and close back inside the range. It’s a classic fake-out: liquidity gets taken from stop orders, but the breakout fails.

🤑 Right now BTC just locked in a weekly bearish SFP. That means price tried to break higher, swept liquidity above the highs at $123k, but failed to hold. Historically, this has been one of the most reliable reversal signals.

🗓 Over the last 5 years, this exact setup has appeared many times and almost always it led to strong downside reactions. It doesn’t always guarantee a dump, but the odds are stacked against continuation once a weekly SFP forms.

If you have many leveraged longs — better cut now than later. But hey, NFA, DYOR, you know... 🧠

#FAQ

Top 5 ways people get rekt in crypto 😭

After a few cycles, I noticed that most losses people have don’t come from black swans, but from stupid stuff people repeat over and over 👇

🔜 First is leverage. Crypto markets are thin and volatile, so a 10% wick can wipe out 10x leverage traders. Liquidation cascades make the move even sharper. Leverage is the most dangerous thing for most people when it comes to trading and is tied to most sad stories in crypto.

🔜 Emotional trading. Herding behavior makes people chase momentum, then capitulate when it reverses. Short-term holders are always the ones realizing the heaviest losses in selloffs. Price speculation is simply unnatural for humans, your psychology works against you in most market scenarios.

🔜 Third is high FDV low float tokens. A tiny circulating supply lets push prices high up, but unlocks flood the market with new supply. Dilution eventually drags valuations back to where real demand can sustain them. People who marry such bags often hold them for multiple years until it's down -99%

🔜 CEX listing hype. New listings often open mispriced because liquidity is thin and informed sellers unload into demand. Retail buyers are effectively betting against both time and insiders. With leverage, the risk is multiplied.

🔜 Illiquid bets. NFTs or low cap altcoins look attractive when rising, but when the bid side disappears, there’s simply no exit. Most collections and small tokens drift to zero once attention fades, it can happen over 1 month, or week, or even overnight.

📌 Save for later

Bitcoin is trading at $113,500, Bukele 'indicator' is working as always 😁

For the first time since January of this year short-term BTC holders have started selling for a loss 🔽

😱 It means momentum cracked and weak hands are puking, which often clears leverage and transfers coins to stronger owners.

If SOPR stays sub 1 for weeks I treat it as trend deterioration, but a quick reset with rising spot bids often marks a low which you can buy after the retest 🔍

💣 Israel calls up another 50,000 reservists for a military operation to completely capture Gaza and destroy Hamas.

😭 The altcoin season is over (no)

Interest in altcoins on Google has returned to its initial position amid the Bitcoin correction. And market sentiment has once again entered a bearish phase, according to Santiment data.

This is a normal reaction to the crypto market's correction from its peak. We always think that prices will only go down from here. But so far, there is no real confirmation of the start of a bear market; all you see in the market right now is emotion:

⏺ Emotions from FOMO.
⏺ Emotions from red numbers in your portfolio.
⏺ Emotions from not understanding what is happening.

And then there are analysts scaring people with the conflict between the White House and the Fed ahead of Jerome Powell's speech on August 22 🤬

Always DYOR and remember about the NFA. But before you do anything:

🟢 Read Coinbase's report on the prospects for altcoins.
🟢 Remember the 85% chance of Bloomberg approving an altcoin ETF this fall.
🟢 Imagine what would happen if Trump forced the Fed to lower rates, ignoring the threat of rising inflation 😊

@CoinPost

Top 5 signs a token launch will dump 📉

Most new tokens pump on day one, then fade hard. Here’s how to spot the ones most likely to bleed 👇

1️⃣Low float, high FDV. Tiny circulating supply makes price look strong early, but unlocks crush it later. Market cap increases or stays the same while price stagnates forever.

2️⃣Big VC allocations. When early backers hold a huge share at cents-on-the-dollar, guess who’s selling into your “entry.”

3️⃣Heavy unlock schedule ahead. Large cliffs and emissions mean constant new supply. Price rarely keeps up.

4️⃣Exchange listing fake hype. Day-one listings are often mispriced. Liquidity is thin, insiders exit, sometimes without even selling spot, but by hedging on perps, and retail becomes exit liquidity.

5️⃣No real users or revenue. If the product isn’t being used, token demand can’t absorb the selling pressure.

📌 Save this list. It’ll keep you from holding bags you never meant to buy

@CoinPost

Bearish signal for BTC on 1W 🐻

Bearish divergence is a signal of a trend reversal and appears when the price updates its high, while the peaks of the RSI indicator decline.

Such a signal on the higher timeframe is a serious warning, but it is not a guarantee of the end of the bull market 😏

Here's what we can understand from this signal:

⏺ BTC still has a chance to return to $124k and even a new ATH. But it is unlikely that the price will rise above $130k unless the bearish divergence is broken.

⏺ If your analysis indicates that BTC will rise to $150k and above, then confirmation of this movement will be an RSI above 70.

@CoinPost