Forwarded from Birds of a Feather
2025 Year in Review
2025 was the most challenging year to navigate since I've started trading crypto in 2020. Challenging not because of drastic volatility (like we saw in 2022), but because of the lack of clarity about what lay ahead of us in the future. This uncertainty acts like an overcast cloud, possibly warning us about an impending storm, but not quite dark enough to know its coming for certain. As such, my HTF views have been low conviction and my faith in consistent cyclicality significantly shaken.
This has translated into a marked change in expression for my portfolio. My average trade frequencies have dropped by 65% since 2024 and 2023, with aggregate portfolio exposure dropping to the lowest its ever been since inception (I am no longer default long the market). Whilst profitable, returns have naturally compressed relative to previous years. I no longer make the claim that crypto is a positive risk-adjusted asset class for speculators. I myself am slowly expanding the investment universe to include equities, but am taking my own time and becoming acquainted with these different games. However, I don't believe that equities are an easier asset class to profit off - I simply want a larger investment universe to optimize expressions for.
Within crypto, I don't think much will change for 2026. We are moving towards a meta where bullshit is called out quickly, obnoxious multi billion dollar TGEs are getting hammered instantly and revenue / value accrual to tokens are prioritized. This is healthy, but will diminish return profiles for alts (When you use multiples valuation methodologies vs thinking something can go to the moon things don't look as optimistic). That being said, I do think we are in for a positive January given how depressed most verticals are.
I don't yet know where BTC will trade at the end of 2026, and will not pretend to guess. Instead I'll see what the market offers me and make the best of it. Wishing everyone a prosperous 2026, with hopes that it'll be better than 2025.
Cheers,
ENAS
2025 was the most challenging year to navigate since I've started trading crypto in 2020. Challenging not because of drastic volatility (like we saw in 2022), but because of the lack of clarity about what lay ahead of us in the future. This uncertainty acts like an overcast cloud, possibly warning us about an impending storm, but not quite dark enough to know its coming for certain. As such, my HTF views have been low conviction and my faith in consistent cyclicality significantly shaken.
This has translated into a marked change in expression for my portfolio. My average trade frequencies have dropped by 65% since 2024 and 2023, with aggregate portfolio exposure dropping to the lowest its ever been since inception (I am no longer default long the market). Whilst profitable, returns have naturally compressed relative to previous years. I no longer make the claim that crypto is a positive risk-adjusted asset class for speculators. I myself am slowly expanding the investment universe to include equities, but am taking my own time and becoming acquainted with these different games. However, I don't believe that equities are an easier asset class to profit off - I simply want a larger investment universe to optimize expressions for.
Within crypto, I don't think much will change for 2026. We are moving towards a meta where bullshit is called out quickly, obnoxious multi billion dollar TGEs are getting hammered instantly and revenue / value accrual to tokens are prioritized. This is healthy, but will diminish return profiles for alts (When you use multiples valuation methodologies vs thinking something can go to the moon things don't look as optimistic). That being said, I do think we are in for a positive January given how depressed most verticals are.
I don't yet know where BTC will trade at the end of 2026, and will not pretend to guess. Instead I'll see what the market offers me and make the best of it. Wishing everyone a prosperous 2026, with hopes that it'll be better than 2025.
Cheers,
ENAS