The first trading day of July brings a packed U.S. economic calendar that could set the tone for the week across forex, stocks, commodities, and crypto. Markets will focus on the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for an early read on the labor market, followed by S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the closely watched ISM Manufacturing PMI, offering key insights into the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Traders will also monitor Construction Spending, Crude Oil Inventories, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow, while remarks from Fed Governor Warsh could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Expect elevated volatility around these releases as markets react to new economic data.

Although the overall recovery structure is still intact, momentum has slowed considerably as price approaches overhead resistance. A breakout above the range would strengthen the bullish case, while losing the lower boundary could trigger a deeper retracement toward the rising trendline and lower support levels.

For now, this is a patience zone. The next decisive move will likely come after price escapes the current consolidation range.

Key Levels

🟢 Support: 6.67 → 6.178 → 5.95
🔴 Resistance: 6.74 → 7.00
📈 Bias: Neutral until price breaks out of the current range.
⚠️ Wait for confirmation before anticipating the next major move.

Price is currently holding above the key Fibonacci retracement levels, with 0.1844 acting as the next major hurdle. A decisive move above this resistance could accelerate bullish momentum toward 0.1955 and potentially higher. However, losing the breakout zone would increase the probability of a retest toward 0.1598.

Key Levels

🟢 Support: 0.1598 → 0.1370
🔴 Resistance: 0.1844 → 0.1955
📈 Bias: Bullish while price holds above the former wedge resistance.
⚠️ A confirmed break above 0.1844 would strengthen the case for further upside.

From the chart, BTC already made the strong Wave A drop, then gave the Wave B recovery bounce. Now the current move still looks like Wave C can continue lower.
Price is currently around $63,329, and this bounce can still be part of a short-term corrective move before continuation lower.
If BTC pushes higher first, the $66,000 to $69,000 area is the zone I’m watching for rejection. If sellers step in there, the next wave down can start.
The first main downside target is around $49,000 to $47,000, because that zone matches the larger support area.
But if Wave C extends deeper, then BTC can even move toward the $43,000 to $39,000 area before a proper reversal.
For this bearish wave count to become weak, BTC needs to reclaim the invalidation level around $82,721 with strength.
Until then, I’m not chasing small bounces. I’m watching if BTC rejects from the $66k to $69k area and continues toward $49k to $47k, with extension risk toward $43k to $39k.