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Washington Nationals ML

BreadHead BreakDown:
The Rockies continue to be have one of the worst home vs road dichotomies in the league. Colorado is just 4 games below .500 when playing at home, but on the road, they’re 17-46, that’s 29 games below .500 🤯

Year after year the Rockies have drastic home vs road splits, mainly due to the elevation. No team is accustomed to playing in elevation like the Rockies are, so they benefit from this environmental edge and catch teams of guard. When they head out on the road, they have a major falloff, and it shows. Tonight we don’t only have the home vs road dichotomy on our side, we also have substantial pitching and hitting advantage. Let’s break it down

The Nationals are set to start DJ Herz. Herz has been a bright spot for the Nationals this year. He’s gone 5 consecutive starts not allowing more than 2 runs. Herz is also due for positive regression, his ERA on the season is 4.26 but his expected ERA is just 3.46.
Opposing him will be Colorado’s Austin Gomber. Gomber is the opposite of Herz, his season ERA is 4.82 but his expected ERA is over 5.00. Gomber also struggled more on the road, that ERA inflates even higher to 5.16 when pitching on the road. Gomber also struggles mightily against right handed hitters, he’s allowing a .280 batting average to righty’s compared to just .236 to lefty’s. Washington is aware of this and has staggered their lineup nicely, 5 righty’s and 4 lefty’s alternating the entire way through the lineup.
Gomber has faced the Nationals 3 times over the last 2 years, he’s pitched 12 innings while surrendering 13 runs over that time frame pitching to an ERA above 9.00.

Both teams are completely out of the playoff picture, but the Nationals have brought up a lot of young players who are motivated to prove themselves, whereas the Rockies lineup is mostly long tenured players who are just playing out the remainder of the season. The Nationals should be able to get to Gomber, meanwhile Herz should be able to hold down a weak Rockies lineup.

Finally score projection:
Rockies 2, Nationals 5

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