U.S. dry #natgas production is currently estimated at 101.3 bcf/d (unchanged from Friday; +5.8 bcf/d y-o-y).

U.S. #coal-to-#natgas switching will likely reach 9.7 bcf/d this week - the highest since July 2020.

EIA Report
• My projection for tomorrow’s EIA report is above the market consensus – meaning that I expect a larger build relative to the market expectations – which implies a possibility for a “bearish surprise”. However, any surprise is possible.
• Reuters survey: +113 bcf
• Bluegold Trader: +118 bcf (South Central: +45 bcf)
• S&P Global: +125 bcf
• Refinitiv: +126 bcf
• Citi Futures: +101 bcf
• Gelber & Associates: +131 bcf

• Sunday’s 12z weather models are rather bullish vs Friday’s 12z results – due to higher projected HDDs.
• GFS is bullish (+17 bcf).
• ECMWF is very bullish (+23 bcf).
FOUR CHARTS > #natgas

The latest extended-range ECMWF model shows more HDDs in all five forecast weeks. Consumption-wise, the model is bullish vs the previous update (issued on Oct. 6): +2.0 bcf/d (on average over the next five weeks). #natgas

U.S. #natgas demand (consumption + exports) has already passed the seasonal low and is now projected to trend higher and remain mostly above last year's level.

EIA REPORT
• My projection for tomorrow’s EIA report is above the market consensus – meaning that I expect a larger build relative to the market expectations – which implies a possibility for a “bearish surprise”. However, any surprise is possible.
• Reuters survey: +123 bcf
• Bluegold Trader: +132 bcf (South Central: +66 bcf)
• S&P Global: +136 bcf
• Refinitiv: +134 bcf
• Citi Futures: +118 bcf
• Gelber & Associates: +126 bcf

• Sunday’s 12z weather models are mixed vs Friday’s 12z results.
• GFS is rather bearish (-13bcf).
• ECMWF is neutral (-1 bcf).
• In absolute terms, the models are more or less in line with each other (previously, GFS was more bullish than the ECMWF).
FOUR CHARTS > #natgas

EIA has revised lower its U.S. dry #natgas production forecast by -0.57 bcf/d (on average) over the next 15 months (October 2022 - December 2023). EIA currently expects U.S. dry gas production to reach 100.12 bcf/d in November 2023.

U.S. dry #natgas production is currently estimated at 100.4 bcf/d (-0.9 bcf/d from yesterday, but +4.6 bcf/d y-o-y). Production is likely to be revised higher tomorrow.

EIA REPORT
• My projection for tomorrow’s EIA report is within the market consensus – meaning that I expect a simialr build relative to the market expectations – which implies a possibility for a “neutral surprise”. However, any surprise is possible.
• Reuters survey: +105 bcf
• Bluegold Trader: +105 bcf (South Central: +45 bcf)
• S&P Global: +108 bcf
• Refinitiv: +105 bcf
• Citi Futures: +98 bcf
• Gelber & Associates: +108 bcf

U.S. #coal-to-#natgas switching is currently estimated at 9.4 bcf/d - the highest since August 2020.

Projected TDDs are rising but remain substantially below the norm as well as below last year's level. #natgas