FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 2025 GDP AT 1.7% VS 2.1% IN DECEMBER
FED RAISES 2025 UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO 4.4% FROM 4.3% IN DECEMBER
FED RAISES 2025 PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.7% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
FED RAISES 2025 CORE PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.8% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
FED RAISES 2025 UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST TO 4.4% FROM 4.3% IN DECEMBER
FED RAISES 2025 PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.7% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
FED RAISES 2025 CORE PCE INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.8% FROM 2.5% IN DECEMBER
FED CHAIR POWELL:
- Slowing QT (balance sheet run-off) shouldn't be seen as a policy move
- Will be difficult to assess inflation impact of tariffs
- Good part of marked-up inflation coming from tariffs
- Base case is tariff inflation will be transitory, but that's uncertain.
-Don't see much increase in long-term expected inflation
- Watching carefully for signs of weakness in hard data
-Inflation has started to move up, partly due to tariffs
-With tariffs inflation progress may be delayed
- Too soon to be seeing significant effects from tariffs
- Tariffs tend to bring growth down and inflation up.
- Slowing QT (balance sheet run-off) shouldn't be seen as a policy move
- Will be difficult to assess inflation impact of tariffs
- Good part of marked-up inflation coming from tariffs
- Base case is tariff inflation will be transitory, but that's uncertain.
-Don't see much increase in long-term expected inflation
- Watching carefully for signs of weakness in hard data
-Inflation has started to move up, partly due to tariffs
-With tariffs inflation progress may be delayed
- Too soon to be seeing significant effects from tariffs
- Tariffs tend to bring growth down and inflation up.
FOMC Median Forecast Shows 2025 GDP at 1.7% vs 2.1% in December
Fed Raises 2025 Unemployment Forecast to 4.4% from 4.3% in December
Fed Raises 2025 PCE Inflation Forecast to 2.7% from 2.5% in December
Fed Raises 2025 Core PCE Inflation Forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% in December
Fed Raises 2025 Unemployment Forecast to 4.4% from 4.3% in December
Fed Raises 2025 PCE Inflation Forecast to 2.7% from 2.5% in December
Fed Raises 2025 Core PCE Inflation Forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% in December
BlockTalk
FOMC Median Forecast Shows 2025 GDP at 1.7% vs 2.1% in December Fed Raises 2025 Unemployment Forecast to 4.4% from 4.3% in December Fed Raises 2025 PCE Inflation Forecast to 2.7% from 2.5% in December Fed Raises 2025 Core PCE Inflation Forecast to 2.8%…
Statement: Hawkish
Economic projections: Stagflationary
Dot plot: Hawkish
QT taper: Dovish
Economic projections: Stagflationary
Dot plot: Hawkish
QT taper: Dovish
It seems that the pain is ALMOST over for Bitcoin and even if we do see one more pullback, the worst is likely behind us.
Tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada are going to be implemented on April 2nd but have already priced in and have been for a while now.
The FED is slowing down QT (balance sheet run-off) aggressively, particularly for Treasuries, from $25bn/month to $5bn/month.
It is very likely that we will see QT entirely come to a halt in the May's FOMC meeting, coupled with a Fed rate cut, latest in June's FOMC.
The global M2 money supply has already broken out to new ATH's and has been up only since January. It is now just a matter of time until Bitcoin and risk assets in general start to feel the effects of this.
We have now seen a 30% pull back in the price of $BTC which is very typical of a bull market and all the signs are now pointing to a very positive Q2 and H2 of 2025.
Tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada are going to be implemented on April 2nd but have already priced in and have been for a while now.
The FED is slowing down QT (balance sheet run-off) aggressively, particularly for Treasuries, from $25bn/month to $5bn/month.
It is very likely that we will see QT entirely come to a halt in the May's FOMC meeting, coupled with a Fed rate cut, latest in June's FOMC.
The global M2 money supply has already broken out to new ATH's and has been up only since January. It is now just a matter of time until Bitcoin and risk assets in general start to feel the effects of this.
We have now seen a 30% pull back in the price of $BTC which is very typical of a bull market and all the signs are now pointing to a very positive Q2 and H2 of 2025.
BlockTalk
It seems that the pain is ALMOST over for Bitcoin and even if we do see one more pullback, the worst is likely behind us. Tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada are going to be implemented on April 2nd but have already priced in and have been for a while now.…
Remain careful at least in the short term as Bitcoin formed a massive CME gap around over the course of this weekend at $84,000.
Historically, these CME gaps tend to get filled sooner or later.
Historically, these CME gaps tend to get filled sooner or later.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST BITCOIN BUY SIGNALS JUST FLASHED!!!
https://youtu.be/SGgCZy0Zx3g?si=RvBlgLCTTuECyVcO
https://youtu.be/SGgCZy0Zx3g?si=RvBlgLCTTuECyVcO
YouTube
MASSIVE BITCOIN BUY SIGNAL FLASHING!!! [DO NOT BE LEFT BEHIND]
A major Bitcoin buy signal has just flashed, and it could spark the next massive pump. Discover the key indicators, market psychology, and what I’m doing right now to stay ahead. Don’t miss it!
The chart of the 10-week lead of the Global M2 money supply shared by Raoul Pal suggests we’re in a bottoming zone for Bitcoin and that liftoff begins today.
However, the bearish and more realistic case is if we place the global M2 money supply with a 109-day lead over Bitcoin rather than a 70-day lead.
This would suggest that the mini rally from $76K to $89K was a failed rally—with a pullback to around $74K, re-testing the prior ATH from March last year, chop around there for a few weeks whilst altcoins continue to bleed lower ($ETH to $1.4k…)
Before some kind of a bottom is formed.
However, the bearish and more realistic case is if we place the global M2 money supply with a 109-day lead over Bitcoin rather than a 70-day lead.
This would suggest that the mini rally from $76K to $89K was a failed rally—with a pullback to around $74K, re-testing the prior ATH from March last year, chop around there for a few weeks whilst altcoins continue to bleed lower ($ETH to $1.4k…)
Before some kind of a bottom is formed.
Circle, the issuer of $USDC, just filed for an IPO.
Circle to List Class a Common Stock on NYSE Under Symbol 'CRCL': Filing
Number of shares or price range not yet disclosed in the filing. Circle targeting a market debut as early as June per Fortune.
JPMorgan, Citi, Oppenheimer are some of the underwriters and Circle is seeking a $4 billion to $5 billion valuation per multiple reports.
Here’s why it’s huge:
• Circle leverages public blockchains (Ethereum & Solana), so they have virtually zero infrastructure costs
• Every $USDC transaction earns them fees + yields from short-term US Treasuries
• Compare that to Amazon burning billions on data centers—Circle’s overhead is minimal
• This positions them (and potentially Tether next) as “super banks” of the 21st century
Circle to List Class a Common Stock on NYSE Under Symbol 'CRCL': Filing
Number of shares or price range not yet disclosed in the filing. Circle targeting a market debut as early as June per Fortune.
JPMorgan, Citi, Oppenheimer are some of the underwriters and Circle is seeking a $4 billion to $5 billion valuation per multiple reports.
Here’s why it’s huge:
• Circle leverages public blockchains (Ethereum & Solana), so they have virtually zero infrastructure costs
• Every $USDC transaction earns them fees + yields from short-term US Treasuries
• Compare that to Amazon burning billions on data centers—Circle’s overhead is minimal
• This positions them (and potentially Tether next) as “super banks” of the 21st century
We’re hours away from President Trump announcing new tariffs on Liberation Day...
https://youtu.be/JmpuS4Y3wt4?si=nELRCyRWlaKNEMu4
https://youtu.be/JmpuS4Y3wt4?si=nELRCyRWlaKNEMu4
YouTube
URGENT: Tariffs Incoming!!! [VOLATILITY INCOMING]
President Trump’s new tariff announcement on Liberation Day is set to unleash massive volatility in both crypto and traditional markets. In this video, I’ll show you how I’m positioning myself to navigate these wild swings. Watch now—don’t be caught off guard!
💥BREAKING: US to impose 10% base tariff on all countries.
Reciprocal tariff rate will be half other countries tariff rates.
Reciprocal tariff rate will be half other countries tariff rates.
BlockTalk
💥BREAKING: US to impose 10% base tariff on all countries. Reciprocal tariff rate will be half other countries tariff rates.
All of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs:
🇨🇦🇲🇽 Canada and Mexico exempt from reciprocal tariffs for now.
🇨🇦🇲🇽 Canada and Mexico exempt from reciprocal tariffs for now.
BlockTalk
All of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs: 🇨🇦🇲🇽 Canada and Mexico exempt from reciprocal tariffs for now.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US raises total tariffs on Chinese goods to 54%.
6.1 million Americans are behind on their mortgage, the highest in 20+ years.
The only way to fix this issue is for interest rates to come down, Trump and Bessent have made this a clear aim of theirs.
Yesterday the US10 year rate has come all the way down to 4%, off the 4.8% high from the week before President Trump came into office.
The way rates are being forced lower by the Trump administration is by injecting uncertainty into financial markets and cutting government spending, via DOGE.
The only way to fix this issue is for interest rates to come down, Trump and Bessent have made this a clear aim of theirs.
Yesterday the US10 year rate has come all the way down to 4%, off the 4.8% high from the week before President Trump came into office.
The way rates are being forced lower by the Trump administration is by injecting uncertainty into financial markets and cutting government spending, via DOGE.