Wintermute: Altcoin Rally Depends on Bitcoin’s Proximity to All-Time Highs

The crypto market has steadied after October’s decline. Sentiment is improving and investors are gradually taking on selective risk, though capital inflows remain narrow and uneven, according to a new research note by market maker Wintermute. Analysts believe that a broader recovery still hinges on Bitcoin moving closer to its historical peak.

Historically, altcoins tend to outperform once Bitcoin trades within roughly 10% of its all-time high. At present, BTC is about 16% below that level — and in such conditions, Bitcoin itself outperforms altcoins in around 54% of cases. If the price retreats toward $100K, the likelihood of this scenario increases to 58%.

This, Wintermute notes, explains why the recent uptick in older tokens such as FIL, ICP, and FET was short-lived — the market lacked a confirming signal from Bitcoin’s trend.

Still, a few “blue chips” with strong individual catalysts, including HYPE, ENA, and UNI, continue to show relative strength, partly supported by expectations of shifts in U.S. regulatory policy. Overall, however, the altcoin space now behaves more like an options market — marked by brief spikes and limited follow-through unless Bitcoin leads the way.

Wintermute expects the next wave of volatility to likely be triggered by U.S. policy headlines.

📊 Chart insight:
😄X-axis: how far Bitcoin is trading from its ATH (in %);
😄Y-axis: the frequency (in %) that altcoins — excluding ETH — outperform BTC over the following 30 days.

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🇨🇿 The Czech Central Bank Becomes the First in the World to Add Bitcoin to Its Portfolio

The Czech National Bank (CNB) has announced the creation of a $1 million test crypto portfolio that includes Bitcoin, USD-backed stablecoins, and a tokenized deposit. This marks the first known instance of Bitcoin appearing on a central bank’s balance sheet.

The pilot project was approved by the CNB Board on October 30. According to the bank, the goal is to gain practical experience working with digital assets and to test the processes of purchasing, storing, and managing them.

The investment is not part of the country’s foreign exchange reserves and will not be increased. CNB Governor Aleš Michl recalled that the idea of creating this portfolio was proposed by him back in January 2025 to examine Bitcoin from a regulator’s perspective and assess its potential as a diversification tool.

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Conspiracy interpretations of Changpeng Zhao’s posts have gone viral on X

Posts attempting to “decode” messages from Binance founder Changpeng Zhao have gained popularity on X, with users searching for hidden signals about Bitcoin’s price movements.

In March, when the price dropped to $84,000, Zhao wrote: “Finally put the draft of the book on paper. 114,000 words. It will probably take three times more effort to rewrite everything.”
About a month later, Bitcoin began to rise, surpassing both $114,000 and later reaching new all-time highs. Until November, the price did not fall below $100,000.

On November 8, with Bitcoin trading around $103,000, Zhao posted: “97,000 words, 300 pages.”

During the night of November 13–14, Bitcoin fell to $96,000 and then started recovering. When the price returned to $97,000 the next morning, Zhao posted again:
“Every bottom is taken by someone as the end of the world. But time goes on.”

Users continue to speculate about hidden meanings in his posts — especially what Zhao meant by the number 300.

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $95,122
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $3,181
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.24
👀 BNB (BNB): $933
🧂 Solana (SOL): $140

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $3.23 trillion
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 59.39%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 14 (“Extreme fear”)

📈 Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, the strongest 24-hour growth came from Aster (ASTER) — up 6.5%.

📉 The biggest drop over the last 24 hours was Starknet (STRK) — down 9%.

Have a good week! 💜

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $90,282
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $3,007
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.13
👀 BNB (BNB): $916
🧂 Solana (SOL): $136

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $3.09T
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 58.94%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 15 (“Extreme fear”)

📈 Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Starknet (STRK) showed the biggest gain over the past 24 hours — up 17%.

📉 The biggest drop in the last 24 hours came from Filecoin (FIL) — down 13%.

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$523 million withdrawn from BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF in 24 hours — a record since launch

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded its largest single-day outflow since its launch in January 2024 during the trading session on November 19. Investors withdrew $523.15 million, surpassing the previous record of $463 million set last week.

IBIT remains the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF with approximately $73 billion in assets. However, the fund has been experiencing consistent outflows since late October. Over the past five trading days, outflows reached $1.43 billion, and since the beginning of the month, the total has climbed to $2.19 billion.

When investors exit, ETF issuers such as BlackRock or Fidelity are required to redeem ETF shares and sell an equivalent amount of the underlying bitcoin that backs them. As a result, outflows from these funds lead to additional selling pressure on the market and may contribute to downward pressure on the price.

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $87,441
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $2,866
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.09
👀 BNB (BNB): $853
🧂 Solana (SOL): $133

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $2.98T
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 59.09%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 11 (“Extreme fear”)

📈 Among the top-100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Canton (CC) showed the biggest daily gain at +11%.

📉 The largest 24-hour drop came from Starknet (STRK) at –8%.

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New Yorkers will receive $12,000 in USDC as part of a basic-income pilot program.

The initiative covers 160 low-income residents. Each participant will get:
😄 $8,000 upfront
😄 Followed by five monthly payments of $800

The experiment aims to test whether stablecoins work better than traditional cash assistance, including speed, convenience, and lower transfer costs.

The program is funded by Coinbase and executed through GiveDirectly.
The focus areas — South Bronx and East Harlem — were chosen because they are among NYC’s most economically challenged neighborhoods and have shown openness to fintech innovation.

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Renaissance or just another “pump”? Why Zcash surged 800%

A post by Naval Ravikant in support of Zcash became the starting point for a new wave of interest in the coin. Soon after, other well-known figures in the English-speaking crypto community voiced their support as well, and Zcash multiplied in price — landing in the spotlight for the first time in years.

The sudden rally split the community. Some call it a long-overdue revaluation: the project is evolving, the focus on privacy is strengthening, and major investors are getting involved. Others point to signs of a coordinated price-push, noting how suspiciously synchronised the praise from influential players has been.

Even with technical upgrades and fresh capital flowing in, it’s hard to ignore how simultaneously the coin received backing from high-profile market participants.
Is the rise of Zcash driven by genuine demand — or is it a “coordinated pump”?

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $87,544
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $2,945
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.19
👀 BNB (BNB): $861
🧂 Solana (SOL): $139

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $3.01T
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 58.60%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 15 (“Extreme fear”)

📈 Top gainer in the top-100: Ethena (ENA), up 8% in the last 24 hours.

📉 Biggest loser: Zcash (ZEC), down 3% over the same period.

Have a good Wednesday! 💜

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What crypto projects are interesting to investors in 2026

The venture arm of Coinbase has published a list of areas it is ready to invest in. The fund is targeting not only traditional blockchain projects, but also intersections with AI, robotics, and trading infrastructure:

😄Futures for tokenized assets — synthetic trading of real-world assets (RWA) through perpetual futures (perps). They don’t require physical collateral and allow markets to be launched for almost anything with demand.
😄Specialized exchanges and terminals, for example, tools for professional trading on prediction markets or infrastructure that protects liquidity providers from aggressive trading strategies.
😄Next-generation DeFi — trading venues integrated with lending protocols.
😄Uncollateralized lending using on-chain reputation and external data sources.
😄Privacy in on-chain products, including protection of trading strategies.
😄AI and robotics.
😄Data collection for training humanoid AI systems through decentralized models.
😄“Proof of humanity” as a way to distinguish human actions from AI-driven bots.
😄AI agents for generating, auditing, and monitoring smart contracts, simplifying the development of on-chain applications.

Coinbase Ventures expects a new wave of strong startups in these sectors and invites teams working on similar solutions to reach out. According to CryptoRank, the company’s average investment round ranges from $3 million to $10 million.

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🇰🇷 Hackers steal $37M from Upbit one day after its $10B acquisition deal

South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, Upbit, has suspended deposits and withdrawals after detecting an unauthorized transfer of roughly $37 million. According to the exchange, on November 27 a portion of Solana-based tokens worth around 54 billion won was moved to an external wallet. Upbit stated that all customer losses will be fully compensated.

The incident occurred just a day after the announcement of a major deal between Upbit and internet giant Naver, often called “the Korean Google.” Naver plans to acquire the exchange for $10.3 billion.

At a press conference held on the day of the breach, Naver’s leadership reaffirmed its intent to invest 10 trillion won ($6.8 billion) into AI and blockchain technologies over the next five years. The acquisition of Upbit is seen as a strategic bet on fintech and the crypto market.

Upbit is the largest crypto exchange in South Korea, and trading volumes in Korean won (KRW) are comparable to those in U.S. dollars (excluding stablecoin pairs such as USDT), making South Korea the world’s second-largest crypto market.

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🇺🇸 How Bitcoin Moves on Thanksgiving in the U.S.

The United States is celebrating Thanksgiving today — one of the country’s major national holidays. Traditional markets, including NASDAQ, are closed, but the crypto market operates as usual.

The team at Protos reviewed Bitcoin’s performance over the past 15 years during the Thanksgiving weekend — from Wednesday evening before the holiday through Monday morning. The data shows no clear pattern: in eight years BTC went up, in seven it went down. Both average and median returns over the period are close to zero.

The biggest swings happened in Bitcoin’s early years: in 2010 BTC fell 26.5%, while in 2015 it jumped 16%. More moderate moves appeared later. Notable volatility also occurred in 2017 (+13%) and 2018 (–13.3%).

In recent years, price changes have been small, within roughly 3%. Protos attributes this to reduced activity and lower trading volumes over the holiday period.

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $91,670
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $3,024
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.21
👀 BNB (BNB): $895
🧂 Solana (SOL): $140

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $3.01T
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 59.34%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 25 (“Extreme fear”)

📈 Among the top-100 cryptocurrencies, Sky showed the biggest gain in the past 24 hours — up 5%

📉 The worst performer was MemeCore, dropping 30% over the last day

Have a good Friday! 💜

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🇹🇲 Turkmenistan legalizes crypto mining and exchanges

President Serdar Berdimuhamedow has signed the Law on Virtual Assets, officially legalizing mining, crypto exchanges, and OTC services in Turkmenistan.

Cryptocurrencies are recognized as civil-law assets but not as legal tender, currency, or securities. They may be backed or unbacked, according to the document.

Mining will be allowed for individual entrepreneurs and legal entities, all of whom must register electronically with the Central Bank.

Crypto exchanges and OTC providers will be licensed by the Central Bank. Opening a wallet on such platforms will require full AML-compliant identity verification.

The law also sets strict rules for crypto advertising — including mandatory risk warnings and bans on mentioning profitability, bonuses, luxury imagery, or minors.

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $85,977
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $2,828
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.21
👀 BNB (BNB): $823
🧂 Solana (SOL): $126

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $2.92T
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 58.6%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 24 (“Extreme fear”)

📈 Among the top-100 assets, Zcash (ZEC) showed the biggest gain over the past 24 hours — up 21%

📉 The biggest drop came from MemeCore (M), which fell 30% in the last day

Have a good week! 💜

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A third of the entire crypto market cap is held by just 100 wallets

Arkham Intelligence has published a ranking of the 100 largest crypto asset holders. The list includes leading exchanges, financial companies, major blockchain projects — and even hackers.

The total value of assets in these wallets exceeds $1.2 trillion, which is more than one-third of the entire crypto market cap as of late November. Over $650 billion is concentrated in the top ten alone.

The leaders are Binance and Coinbase, the wallets believed to belong to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, BlackRock, and others. Almost all entities on the list are companies or protocols managing client funds.

Arkham compiles the ranking using blockchain analysis, open-source data, and address-matching algorithms. The only publicly known individual on the list is TRON founder Justin Sun.

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $87,070
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $2,803
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.01
👀 BNB (BNB): $831
🧂 Solana (SOL): $127

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $2.94T
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 59%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 23 (“Extreme fear”)

📈 Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, MYX Finance showed the highest daily growth — up 10%.

📉 The biggest drop in the last 24 hours was Canton — down 30%.

Have a good Tuesday! 💜

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Experts are challenging the traditional halving cycle and now expect Bitcoin to keep rising into 2026

Two major asset managers, Grayscale and Bitwise, say the familiar four‑year market structure is breaking down. They agree Bitcoin still broadly follows the halving model, but instead of the usual prolonged bear market, they forecast that the current uptrend could extend into 2026.

Historically, after each of the previous three halvings, Bitcoin saw a strong bull run followed by a long bearish phase. In this cycle, the halving took place in April 2024, and Bitcoin reached a new all‑time high of $126,000 after 534 days — almost exactly in line with the historical median of 525 days.

Analysts highlight several factors that are disrupting the old pattern:

😄 Institutions have replaced miners as the main driver. Demand now matters more than supply. Inflows from spot ETFs and corporate buyers are estimated to be seven times larger than the supply reduction caused by the halving.

😄 No clear signs of a bubble. Unlike in past cycles, price growth has been smoother and more moderate, without the parabolic “blow‑off” that usually signals overheating.

😄 Macro factors matter more. Bitcoin has become sensitive to global economic sentiment. The current correction is linked to pessimism about growth, while the expected easing of U.S. Federal Reserve policy over the next 6–9 months could provide support.

The chart shows Bitcoin’s price action in this cycle (green) compared with previous ones, with cycle peaks still lining up closely in time.

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AI agents managed to hack smart contracts worth millions of dollars

Anthropic has discovered that AI agents are capable of exploiting smart contracts, with potential damage reaching millions of dollars. According to the company’s research, 10 AI models — including Opus, GPT-5, and DeepSeek — were tested for their ability to identify known vulnerabilities.

Out of 405 smart contracts deployed between 2020 and 2025 across Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, and Base, AI agents successfully hacked 207 of them (51.11%), gaining access to $550 million. To avoid skewed results, a second test was run on 34 contracts launched after March 1, 2025 (the date the tested models were last updated). This time, the agents hacked 19 contracts (55.8%), with a potential loss of $4.6 million — which researchers describe as “a conservative lower bound of economic damage.”

The report notes that different models interpret the task differently, leading to varying outcomes: in one scenario where GPT-5 extracted $1.12 million, Opus could have stolen up to $3.5 million. Anthropic also pointed out that as AI develops, the “revenues” from these test hacks have doubled every 1.3 months over the past year.

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Crypto market rates this morning:

👑 Bitcoin (BTC): $93,600
2⃣ Ethereum (ETH): $3,060
😀 XRP (XRP): $2.20
👀 BNB (BNB): $900
🧂 Solana (SOL): $143

😄 Total crypto market capitalization: $3.16T
😄 Bitcoin dominance: 59.1%
😄 Fear & Greed Index: 28 (“Fear”)

📈 Among the top 100 coins by market cap, Sui showed the biggest gain over the past 24 hours — up 28%.

📉 UNUS SED LEO recorded the largest drop over the last 24 hours — down 5%.

Have a good Wednesday! 💜

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