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Silver's “last dance”...
Now there is vertical acceleration, a right angle, abnormal volumes...
Most often, this is followed by an equally rapid collapse...
Be careful with your long positions in silver if you are buying at current prices.
I closed all my longs on this asset.
Ps alpha played out. Silver beta on gold. And Eth beta on Bitcoin. This means that Eth will outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns in this cycle, and altcoins will outperform Eth in terms of returns.
Yes, this will happen. But many will already be out of the market. That's the game.
UPD: I am expecting the same movement for copper, followed by oil prices
Now there is vertical acceleration, a right angle, abnormal volumes...
Most often, this is followed by an equally rapid collapse...
Be careful with your long positions in silver if you are buying at current prices.
I closed all my longs on this asset.
Ps alpha played out. Silver beta on gold. And Eth beta on Bitcoin. This means that Eth will outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns in this cycle, and altcoins will outperform Eth in terms of returns.
Yes, this will happen. But many will already be out of the market. That's the game.
UPD: I am expecting the same movement for copper, followed by oil prices
Ricardo Connection
Silver's “last dance”... Now there is vertical acceleration, a right angle, abnormal volumes... Most often, this is followed by an equally rapid collapse... Be careful with your long positions in silver if you are buying at current prices. I closed all…
The DXY index is the main indicator of liquidity in the system.
Let me remind you that all previous alt seasons started at around 94 on the DXY.
It is currently at 97.
In my opinion, the DXY will reach 94 by the second quarter of 2026.
It is important to add that this is assuming there are no major geopolitical shocks that could negatively affect the cryptocurrency market.
Let me remind you that all previous alt seasons started at around 94 on the DXY.
It is currently at 97.
In my opinion, the DXY will reach 94 by the second quarter of 2026.
It is important to add that this is assuming there are no major geopolitical shocks that could negatively affect the cryptocurrency market.
btw one interesting idea on the investment market is buying Strive (ticker ASST).
This is an investment, not speculation. From a RR perspective, it really catches my attention.
This story has the growth potential of Palantir...
With the potential of prb growth, there are naturally risks here it's a startup 😁
This is an investment, not speculation. From a RR perspective, it really catches my attention.
This story has the growth potential of Palantir...
With the potential of prb growth, there are naturally risks here it's a startup 😁
Some information from my research
Current cycle 2024-2025
The FED's balance sheet is shrinking.
Interest rates are falling but remain quite high in order to stimulate lending.
Liquidity in the US has been falling all this time.
2026:
The Fed's balance sheet begins to grow.
QE lite launched through promissory notes.
Repurchase of $600 billion in mortgage securities in 2026.
Spending from the TGA wallet of $400 billion by March 2026.
Bear markets:
2018 - start of Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2022 - Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2025 - Fed balance sheet reduction
Interest rates have started to fall, but they are still high
Decline in liquidity in the US
2025 - The tariff war has ruined everything.
Now a new round is beginning. Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, Taiwan - these are all risks for crypto.
We are living in the most difficult geopolitical period since World War again.......
No one knows the future.
If tariffs are not too high and everyone agrees, the moon awaits us in 2026 due to the expansion of the FED's balance sheet...
If there are escalations, well, nothing depends on us here.
DYOR 😉
Current cycle 2024-2025
The FED's balance sheet is shrinking.
Interest rates are falling but remain quite high in order to stimulate lending.
Liquidity in the US has been falling all this time.
2026:
The Fed's balance sheet begins to grow.
QE lite launched through promissory notes.
Repurchase of $600 billion in mortgage securities in 2026.
Spending from the TGA wallet of $400 billion by March 2026.
Bear markets:
2018 - start of Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2022 - Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2025 - Fed balance sheet reduction
Interest rates have started to fall, but they are still high
Decline in liquidity in the US
2025 - The tariff war has ruined everything.
Now a new round is beginning. Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, Taiwan - these are all risks for crypto.
We are living in the most difficult geopolitical period since World War again.......
No one knows the future.
If tariffs are not too high and everyone agrees, the moon awaits us in 2026 due to the expansion of the FED's balance sheet...
If there are escalations, well, nothing depends on us here.
DYOR 😉
This is primarily my diary. As long as Im motivated, Ill share my useful thoughts 🫡
My Macro Alpha business cycle (Most of it has already been done, let's sum up the results):
1) Gold is the first to start growing (as it and Bitcoin are most sensitive to global liquidity).
2) After gold rises, silver begins to rise.
3) Next, copper begins to rise! I haven't written about this anywhere. But I have longs in this asset. My long was opened a few weeks ago.
Copper completes the metal growth cycle. And it indicates a good economic recovery.
4) The oil growth cycle is coming to an end. This is real macro alpha. The screenshot shows the gold chart with a 2-year shift (blue) and the oil chart (black).
Oil follows gold with a time lag. This is one of the best alphas I have ever seen.
This means that the period of 2026 will most likely be marked by high oil prices.
This means that it makes sense to buy commodity companies around the world, especially those linked to oil.
An incredible chart-an incredible alpha.
Metals are on fire right now 🔥
The metal cycle is linked to China's business cycle. Since they started printing money in the summer of 2025, they will likely continue to do so until at least the summer of 2026.
This will have a positive effect on raw materials and metals.
You also know that, in my opinion, Bitcoin is very cyclical with the Chinese CSI 300.
2016-2017 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2020-2021 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2025-2026 China prints money
...
Many have seen the copper chart and how everything moves in sync with the crypto cycle. But few understand that copper is 80% dependent on the Chinese business cycle!
There is no magic in the growth of metals-it is China and its stimulus.
Copper, palladium, platinum, lithium-all dependent on China.
1) Gold is the first to start growing (as it and Bitcoin are most sensitive to global liquidity).
2) After gold rises, silver begins to rise.
3) Next, copper begins to rise! I haven't written about this anywhere. But I have longs in this asset. My long was opened a few weeks ago.
Copper completes the metal growth cycle. And it indicates a good economic recovery.
4) The oil growth cycle is coming to an end. This is real macro alpha. The screenshot shows the gold chart with a 2-year shift (blue) and the oil chart (black).
Oil follows gold with a time lag. This is one of the best alphas I have ever seen.
This means that the period of 2026 will most likely be marked by high oil prices.
This means that it makes sense to buy commodity companies around the world, especially those linked to oil.
An incredible chart-an incredible alpha.
Metals are on fire right now 🔥
The metal cycle is linked to China's business cycle. Since they started printing money in the summer of 2025, they will likely continue to do so until at least the summer of 2026.
This will have a positive effect on raw materials and metals.
You also know that, in my opinion, Bitcoin is very cyclical with the Chinese CSI 300.
2016-2017 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2020-2021 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2025-2026 China prints money
...
Many have seen the copper chart and how everything moves in sync with the crypto cycle. But few understand that copper is 80% dependent on the Chinese business cycle!
There is no magic in the growth of metals-it is China and its stimulus.
Copper, palladium, platinum, lithium-all dependent on China.
One of my observations is that every asset (stocks or cryptocurrencies, it doesn't matter) is tied to US government debt.
If we look at assets such as GOLD, SILVER, COOPER, the S&P500 index, and others, we can see a 99% correlation. Sooner or later, crypto assets will also catch up with this curve.
Why is this happening? Devaluation + the influence of geopolitical factors + the addition of liquidity to the system.
Based on my observations, altcoins will always outperform these statistics i.e rise much higher.
Based on this, can we see $20,000/ETH? It sounds crazy, but it's quite realistic. We'll see the results in the future!
If we look at assets such as GOLD, SILVER, COOPER, the S&P500 index, and others, we can see a 99% correlation. Sooner or later, crypto assets will also catch up with this curve.
Why is this happening? Devaluation + the influence of geopolitical factors + the addition of liquidity to the system.
Based on my observations, altcoins will always outperform these statistics i.e rise much higher.
Based on this, can we see $20,000/ETH? It sounds crazy, but it's quite realistic. We'll see the results in the future!
The 4-year cycle has been disrupted but I hope you understand why this happened 😩
btw each cycle ends with vertical upward candles. Never invest in a train that has already left - you will lose all your money
btw each cycle ends with vertical upward candles. Never invest in a train that has already left - you will lose all your money
For the first time in four years, we have seen an expansion of the business cycle.
All alt seasons occurred during the expansion of the black figure (on the screen). All previous highs of the Bitcoin cycle coincided with the highs of the business cycle expansion. All highs on the Russell 2000 coincided with the expansion of the business cycle.
Bitcoin peaks always coincided with business cycle peaks.
2017: complete coincidence.
2021: complete coincidence.
The problem with people is that a cycle is not about days and weeks; a cycle is about days and weeks in the right macro conditions!
Altseason 2025 - no altseason - because of the evil President Trump.
No :)
The business cycle is below zero!
This is a 100% pattern!
This is the answer to the question of why there is no altseason!
Macroeconomics is much more important than everything else
All alt seasons occurred during the expansion of the black figure (on the screen). All previous highs of the Bitcoin cycle coincided with the highs of the business cycle expansion. All highs on the Russell 2000 coincided with the expansion of the business cycle.
Bitcoin peaks always coincided with business cycle peaks.
2017: complete coincidence.
2021: complete coincidence.
The problem with people is that a cycle is not about days and weeks; a cycle is about days and weeks in the right macro conditions!
Altseason 2025 - no altseason - because of the evil President Trump.
No :)
The business cycle is below zero!
This is a 100% pattern!
This is the answer to the question of why there is no altseason!
Macroeconomics is much more important than everything else