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The US and Israel vs Iran
A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days?
Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market.
Obviously, there are several goals, including changing the ruling regime in Iran.
But the main goal is to take control of Iranian oil in order to influence China.
Iran responded significantly to all US bases in the Middle East.
Part of a downed missile fell on a hotel in Dubai.
It is difficult to say how long this will last...
My basic assumption is no more than 7-10 days.
As usual, the US market reacts with a drop lasting a couple of days, sometimes longer.
On average, the decline is 5-8%, then the market moves into growth in almost 95% of cases.
A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days?
Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market.
Obviously, there are several goals, including changing the ruling regime in Iran.
But the main goal is to take control of Iranian oil in order to influence China.
Iran responded significantly to all US bases in the Middle East.
Part of a downed missile fell on a hotel in Dubai.
It is difficult to say how long this will last...
My basic assumption is no more than 7-10 days.
As usual, the US market reacts with a drop lasting a couple of days, sometimes longer.
On average, the decline is 5-8%, then the market moves into growth in almost 95% of cases.
Ricardo Connection
The US and Israel vs Iran A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days? Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market. Obviously, there are several goals, including changing…
Update on the war: USA, Israel, allies vs Iran
It’s obvious that the basic American plan didn’t work.
They managed to eliminate Iran’s leader and the top military command, but the expectation was that people would come out with flags and overthrow the regime. That didn’t happen.
From the initially declared 4 days of attacks, we smoothly moved to a week, then two weeks, and now the discussion is about months. We’ve seen something like this before in 2022.
Few expected Iran to strike at the most sensitive point in the world - raw materials and energy. Iran is attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries.
Iran’s objective is clear: they want chaos across the entire Middle East.
The entire Arab aviation route has effectively been paralyzed.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it opens the path for oil to reach $100-150 in the near future (unless there are sudden changes).
Iran wants to throw global markets into chaos.
European and Chinese stock markets are already plunging, and if this continues for long, the U.S. markets will also face a collapse.
Iran’s strategy is to force allies to pressure Trump to end these special military operations.
Trump clearly miscalculated, expecting a quick war and a quick victory.
Rising oil prices mean rising inflation. Then comes higher interest rates. And that creates a vicious cycle.
Considering that Trump wants to win the congressional elections, a prolonged war and rising inflation are definitely not what he wanted.
😭 Summary:
If the conflict remains active and Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked for more than a month, it won’t be good for the markets.
For everyone:
China, Europe, and the United States could all enter a severe downturn.
Trump understands this and is already organizing NATO countries for a strike on Iran.
But we still don’t know how strongly China and Russia are supporting Iran.
Unfortunately, we have entered a period of total wars where there are no rules. Leaders can be bombed and assassinated.
Before World War II, starting in the 1930s, countries were engaged in tariff wars and sanctions… and then a real large-scale war began.
It’s obvious that the basic American plan didn’t work.
They managed to eliminate Iran’s leader and the top military command, but the expectation was that people would come out with flags and overthrow the regime. That didn’t happen.
From the initially declared 4 days of attacks, we smoothly moved to a week, then two weeks, and now the discussion is about months. We’ve seen something like this before in 2022.
Few expected Iran to strike at the most sensitive point in the world - raw materials and energy. Iran is attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries.
Iran’s objective is clear: they want chaos across the entire Middle East.
The entire Arab aviation route has effectively been paralyzed.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it opens the path for oil to reach $100-150 in the near future (unless there are sudden changes).
Iran wants to throw global markets into chaos.
European and Chinese stock markets are already plunging, and if this continues for long, the U.S. markets will also face a collapse.
Iran’s strategy is to force allies to pressure Trump to end these special military operations.
Trump clearly miscalculated, expecting a quick war and a quick victory.
Rising oil prices mean rising inflation. Then comes higher interest rates. And that creates a vicious cycle.
Considering that Trump wants to win the congressional elections, a prolonged war and rising inflation are definitely not what he wanted.
If the conflict remains active and Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked for more than a month, it won’t be good for the markets.
For everyone:
China, Europe, and the United States could all enter a severe downturn.
Trump understands this and is already organizing NATO countries for a strike on Iran.
But we still don’t know how strongly China and Russia are supporting Iran.
Unfortunately, we have entered a period of total wars where there are no rules. Leaders can be bombed and assassinated.
Before World War II, starting in the 1930s, countries were engaged in tariff wars and sanctions… and then a real large-scale war began.
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Over the past 3 yrs, it has become very difficult to build expectations, so I will sum it up in one phrase: get a life
announced new products:
Prediction markets (for the most reckless gamblers)
Stock trading
Perpetual futures and bonds
Loans secured by BTC and ETH (never do this!)
Integration with DEX via Sol
Considering that they also control all USDC stablecoins...
They own the most influential venture fund on the planet - Coinbase Ventures.
The company's long-term prospects are probably quite good.
Considering that the younger generation is choosing the crypto market over stocks, I'm buying Coinbase.
Prediction markets (for the most reckless gamblers)
Stock trading
Perpetual futures and bonds
Loans secured by BTC and ETH (never do this!)
Integration with DEX via Sol
Considering that they also control all USDC stablecoins...
They own the most influential venture fund on the planet - Coinbase Ventures.
The company's long-term prospects are probably quite good.
Considering that the younger generation is choosing the crypto market over stocks, I'm buying Coinbase.
I have secured most of my oil positions!
A 120% increase since the end of December 2025 in the form of a right-angle acceleration will end with an equally sharp collapse.
Could oil reach $200?
Easily!
If Iran continues to bomb oil infrastructure.
But we must also understand that if peace is suddenly declared tomorrow, oil will also quickly fall to 2025 levels!
My bet on oil in 2026 has paid off!
Just like gold and silver!
The next step is cryptocurrency!
A 120% increase since the end of December 2025 in the form of a right-angle acceleration will end with an equally sharp collapse.
Could oil reach $200?
Easily!
If Iran continues to bomb oil infrastructure.
But we must also understand that if peace is suddenly declared tomorrow, oil will also quickly fall to 2025 levels!
My bet on oil in 2026 has paid off!
Just like gold and silver!
The next step is cryptocurrency!
Key points to clarify:
m2 from the altseason index x BTC price (in image 2)
When the business cycle grows, US liquidity explodes
It is better not to include 2021 in the analysis, as the whole world turned on the printing presses then, 2017 is much more interesting
The Fed's balance sheet and US liquidity move in line with US government debt; during periods of Fed liquidity withdrawal, this leads to a decrease in US liquidity
Oil price growth is deadly for markets (oil price growth = inflation growth), anything above $100 is bad for the US economy, and these are already certain risks.
If the US gets stuck in a conflict with Iran for a long time, there is a possibility that China will launch an operation against Taiwan, so I have started to fix my positions and exit the Chinese stock market.
We live in amazing times😭
m2 from the altseason index x BTC price (in image 2)
When the business cycle grows, US liquidity explodes
It is better not to include 2021 in the analysis, as the whole world turned on the printing presses then, 2017 is much more interesting
The Fed's balance sheet and US liquidity move in line with US government debt; during periods of Fed liquidity withdrawal, this leads to a decrease in US liquidity
Oil price growth is deadly for markets (oil price growth = inflation growth), anything above $100 is bad for the US economy, and these are already certain risks.
If the US gets stuck in a conflict with Iran for a long time, there is a possibility that China will launch an operation against Taiwan, so I have started to fix my positions and exit the Chinese stock market.
We live in amazing times
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The next month will decide whether we are heading into a new crisis or a bright future.
I am optimistic about the market, so I am starting to buy American stocks
I am optimistic about the market, so I am starting to buy American stocks