My Macro Alpha business cycle (Most of it has already been done, let's sum up the results):
1) Gold is the first to start growing (as it and Bitcoin are most sensitive to global liquidity).
2) After gold rises, silver begins to rise.
3) Next, copper begins to rise! I haven't written about this anywhere. But I have longs in this asset. My long was opened a few weeks ago.
Copper completes the metal growth cycle. And it indicates a good economic recovery.
4) The oil growth cycle is coming to an end. This is real macro alpha. The screenshot shows the gold chart with a 2-year shift (blue) and the oil chart (black).
Oil follows gold with a time lag. This is one of the best alphas I have ever seen.
This means that the period of 2026 will most likely be marked by high oil prices.
This means that it makes sense to buy commodity companies around the world, especially those linked to oil.
An incredible chart-an incredible alpha.
Metals are on fire right now 🔥
The metal cycle is linked to China's business cycle. Since they started printing money in the summer of 2025, they will likely continue to do so until at least the summer of 2026.
This will have a positive effect on raw materials and metals.
You also know that, in my opinion, Bitcoin is very cyclical with the Chinese CSI 300.
2016-2017 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2020-2021 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2025-2026 China prints money
...
Many have seen the copper chart and how everything moves in sync with the crypto cycle. But few understand that copper is 80% dependent on the Chinese business cycle!
There is no magic in the growth of metals-it is China and its stimulus.
Copper, palladium, platinum, lithium-all dependent on China.
1) Gold is the first to start growing (as it and Bitcoin are most sensitive to global liquidity).
2) After gold rises, silver begins to rise.
3) Next, copper begins to rise! I haven't written about this anywhere. But I have longs in this asset. My long was opened a few weeks ago.
Copper completes the metal growth cycle. And it indicates a good economic recovery.
4) The oil growth cycle is coming to an end. This is real macro alpha. The screenshot shows the gold chart with a 2-year shift (blue) and the oil chart (black).
Oil follows gold with a time lag. This is one of the best alphas I have ever seen.
This means that the period of 2026 will most likely be marked by high oil prices.
This means that it makes sense to buy commodity companies around the world, especially those linked to oil.
An incredible chart-an incredible alpha.
Metals are on fire right now 🔥
The metal cycle is linked to China's business cycle. Since they started printing money in the summer of 2025, they will likely continue to do so until at least the summer of 2026.
This will have a positive effect on raw materials and metals.
You also know that, in my opinion, Bitcoin is very cyclical with the Chinese CSI 300.
2016-2017 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2020-2021 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2025-2026 China prints money
...
Many have seen the copper chart and how everything moves in sync with the crypto cycle. But few understand that copper is 80% dependent on the Chinese business cycle!
There is no magic in the growth of metals-it is China and its stimulus.
Copper, palladium, platinum, lithium-all dependent on China.
One of my observations is that every asset (stocks or cryptocurrencies, it doesn't matter) is tied to US government debt.
If we look at assets such as GOLD, SILVER, COOPER, the S&P500 index, and others, we can see a 99% correlation. Sooner or later, crypto assets will also catch up with this curve.
Why is this happening? Devaluation + the influence of geopolitical factors + the addition of liquidity to the system.
Based on my observations, altcoins will always outperform these statistics i.e rise much higher.
Based on this, can we see $20,000/ETH? It sounds crazy, but it's quite realistic. We'll see the results in the future!
If we look at assets such as GOLD, SILVER, COOPER, the S&P500 index, and others, we can see a 99% correlation. Sooner or later, crypto assets will also catch up with this curve.
Why is this happening? Devaluation + the influence of geopolitical factors + the addition of liquidity to the system.
Based on my observations, altcoins will always outperform these statistics i.e rise much higher.
Based on this, can we see $20,000/ETH? It sounds crazy, but it's quite realistic. We'll see the results in the future!
The 4-year cycle has been disrupted but I hope you understand why this happened 😩
btw each cycle ends with vertical upward candles. Never invest in a train that has already left - you will lose all your money
btw each cycle ends with vertical upward candles. Never invest in a train that has already left - you will lose all your money
For the first time in four years, we have seen an expansion of the business cycle.
All alt seasons occurred during the expansion of the black figure (on the screen). All previous highs of the Bitcoin cycle coincided with the highs of the business cycle expansion. All highs on the Russell 2000 coincided with the expansion of the business cycle.
Bitcoin peaks always coincided with business cycle peaks.
2017: complete coincidence.
2021: complete coincidence.
The problem with people is that a cycle is not about days and weeks; a cycle is about days and weeks in the right macro conditions!
Altseason 2025 - no altseason - because of the evil President Trump.
No :)
The business cycle is below zero!
This is a 100% pattern!
This is the answer to the question of why there is no altseason!
Macroeconomics is much more important than everything else
All alt seasons occurred during the expansion of the black figure (on the screen). All previous highs of the Bitcoin cycle coincided with the highs of the business cycle expansion. All highs on the Russell 2000 coincided with the expansion of the business cycle.
Bitcoin peaks always coincided with business cycle peaks.
2017: complete coincidence.
2021: complete coincidence.
The problem with people is that a cycle is not about days and weeks; a cycle is about days and weeks in the right macro conditions!
Altseason 2025 - no altseason - because of the evil President Trump.
No :)
The business cycle is below zero!
This is a 100% pattern!
This is the answer to the question of why there is no altseason!
Macroeconomics is much more important than everything else
Since Ethereum is a macro asset, it trades against the dollar.
ETH in the global macro game moves in line with US debt and global liquidity.
Considering that Blackrock has increased its stake in Tom Lee's BitMine several times over the last quarter, the guys clearly believe in ETH. Bitmine is 3-5 leverage on Ethereum itself.
Ps Im actively accumulating this asset for the long term. And prices of 10-20-30k are just a matter of time before we get there!
Is this a guarantee?
There are no guarantees in the venture market, only probabilities.
Considering that Vitalii attends dinner parties hosted by Trump, which are usually attended by the heads of top American companies, Ethereum has a promising future.
ETH in the global macro game moves in line with US debt and global liquidity.
Considering that Blackrock has increased its stake in Tom Lee's BitMine several times over the last quarter, the guys clearly believe in ETH. Bitmine is 3-5 leverage on Ethereum itself.
Ps Im actively accumulating this asset for the long term. And prices of 10-20-30k are just a matter of time before we get there!
Is this a guarantee?
There are no guarantees in the venture market, only probabilities.
Considering that Vitalii attends dinner parties hosted by Trump, which are usually attended by the heads of top American companies, Ethereum has a promising future.
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Look how far China has advanced in robot development.
They are already developing military humanoids that will participate in future wars.
The next step is to integrate AI into robots. This will result in an incredible combination of intelligence and technology.
Ps:
Investing in companies that develop such robots is a gold mine.
One of the future leaders in this industry will be Tesla, with its "Optimus" humanoids.
They are already developing military humanoids that will participate in future wars.
The next step is to integrate AI into robots. This will result in an incredible combination of intelligence and technology.
Ps:
Investing in companies that develop such robots is a gold mine.
One of the future leaders in this industry will be Tesla, with its "Optimus" humanoids.
FED Balance Sheet vs Others
Starting at the end of December 2025, something we had all been waiting for so long finally happened!
The Fed's balance sheet began to grow rapidly after many years of decline.
Growth in the Fed balance sheet = liquidity entering the system.
The last cycle of the Fed balance sheet reversal marked the bottom for altcoins... followed by years of coin growth!
Starting at the end of December 2025, something we had all been waiting for so long finally happened!
The Fed's balance sheet began to grow rapidly after many years of decline.
Growth in the Fed balance sheet = liquidity entering the system.
The last cycle of the Fed balance sheet reversal marked the bottom for altcoins... followed by years of coin growth!
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The US and Israel vs Iran
A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days?
Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market.
Obviously, there are several goals, including changing the ruling regime in Iran.
But the main goal is to take control of Iranian oil in order to influence China.
Iran responded significantly to all US bases in the Middle East.
Part of a downed missile fell on a hotel in Dubai.
It is difficult to say how long this will last...
My basic assumption is no more than 7-10 days.
As usual, the US market reacts with a drop lasting a couple of days, sometimes longer.
On average, the decline is 5-8%, then the market moves into growth in almost 95% of cases.
A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days?
Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market.
Obviously, there are several goals, including changing the ruling regime in Iran.
But the main goal is to take control of Iranian oil in order to influence China.
Iran responded significantly to all US bases in the Middle East.
Part of a downed missile fell on a hotel in Dubai.
It is difficult to say how long this will last...
My basic assumption is no more than 7-10 days.
As usual, the US market reacts with a drop lasting a couple of days, sometimes longer.
On average, the decline is 5-8%, then the market moves into growth in almost 95% of cases.
Ricardo Connection
The US and Israel vs Iran A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days? Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market. Obviously, there are several goals, including changing…
Update on the war: USA, Israel, allies vs Iran
It’s obvious that the basic American plan didn’t work.
They managed to eliminate Iran’s leader and the top military command, but the expectation was that people would come out with flags and overthrow the regime. That didn’t happen.
From the initially declared 4 days of attacks, we smoothly moved to a week, then two weeks, and now the discussion is about months. We’ve seen something like this before in 2022.
Few expected Iran to strike at the most sensitive point in the world - raw materials and energy. Iran is attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries.
Iran’s objective is clear: they want chaos across the entire Middle East.
The entire Arab aviation route has effectively been paralyzed.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it opens the path for oil to reach $100-150 in the near future (unless there are sudden changes).
Iran wants to throw global markets into chaos.
European and Chinese stock markets are already plunging, and if this continues for long, the U.S. markets will also face a collapse.
Iran’s strategy is to force allies to pressure Trump to end these special military operations.
Trump clearly miscalculated, expecting a quick war and a quick victory.
Rising oil prices mean rising inflation. Then comes higher interest rates. And that creates a vicious cycle.
Considering that Trump wants to win the congressional elections, a prolonged war and rising inflation are definitely not what he wanted.
😭 Summary:
If the conflict remains active and Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked for more than a month, it won’t be good for the markets.
For everyone:
China, Europe, and the United States could all enter a severe downturn.
Trump understands this and is already organizing NATO countries for a strike on Iran.
But we still don’t know how strongly China and Russia are supporting Iran.
Unfortunately, we have entered a period of total wars where there are no rules. Leaders can be bombed and assassinated.
Before World War II, starting in the 1930s, countries were engaged in tariff wars and sanctions… and then a real large-scale war began.
It’s obvious that the basic American plan didn’t work.
They managed to eliminate Iran’s leader and the top military command, but the expectation was that people would come out with flags and overthrow the regime. That didn’t happen.
From the initially declared 4 days of attacks, we smoothly moved to a week, then two weeks, and now the discussion is about months. We’ve seen something like this before in 2022.
Few expected Iran to strike at the most sensitive point in the world - raw materials and energy. Iran is attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries.
Iran’s objective is clear: they want chaos across the entire Middle East.
The entire Arab aviation route has effectively been paralyzed.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it opens the path for oil to reach $100-150 in the near future (unless there are sudden changes).
Iran wants to throw global markets into chaos.
European and Chinese stock markets are already plunging, and if this continues for long, the U.S. markets will also face a collapse.
Iran’s strategy is to force allies to pressure Trump to end these special military operations.
Trump clearly miscalculated, expecting a quick war and a quick victory.
Rising oil prices mean rising inflation. Then comes higher interest rates. And that creates a vicious cycle.
Considering that Trump wants to win the congressional elections, a prolonged war and rising inflation are definitely not what he wanted.
If the conflict remains active and Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked for more than a month, it won’t be good for the markets.
For everyone:
China, Europe, and the United States could all enter a severe downturn.
Trump understands this and is already organizing NATO countries for a strike on Iran.
But we still don’t know how strongly China and Russia are supporting Iran.
Unfortunately, we have entered a period of total wars where there are no rules. Leaders can be bombed and assassinated.
Before World War II, starting in the 1930s, countries were engaged in tariff wars and sanctions… and then a real large-scale war began.
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Over the past 3 yrs, it has become very difficult to build expectations, so I will sum it up in one phrase: get a life
announced new products:
Prediction markets (for the most reckless gamblers)
Stock trading
Perpetual futures and bonds
Loans secured by BTC and ETH (never do this!)
Integration with DEX via Sol
Considering that they also control all USDC stablecoins...
They own the most influential venture fund on the planet - Coinbase Ventures.
The company's long-term prospects are probably quite good.
Considering that the younger generation is choosing the crypto market over stocks, I'm buying Coinbase.
Prediction markets (for the most reckless gamblers)
Stock trading
Perpetual futures and bonds
Loans secured by BTC and ETH (never do this!)
Integration with DEX via Sol
Considering that they also control all USDC stablecoins...
They own the most influential venture fund on the planet - Coinbase Ventures.
The company's long-term prospects are probably quite good.
Considering that the younger generation is choosing the crypto market over stocks, I'm buying Coinbase.
I have secured most of my oil positions!
A 120% increase since the end of December 2025 in the form of a right-angle acceleration will end with an equally sharp collapse.
Could oil reach $200?
Easily!
If Iran continues to bomb oil infrastructure.
But we must also understand that if peace is suddenly declared tomorrow, oil will also quickly fall to 2025 levels!
My bet on oil in 2026 has paid off!
Just like gold and silver!
The next step is cryptocurrency!
A 120% increase since the end of December 2025 in the form of a right-angle acceleration will end with an equally sharp collapse.
Could oil reach $200?
Easily!
If Iran continues to bomb oil infrastructure.
But we must also understand that if peace is suddenly declared tomorrow, oil will also quickly fall to 2025 levels!
My bet on oil in 2026 has paid off!
Just like gold and silver!
The next step is cryptocurrency!