Silver's “last dance”...
Now there is vertical acceleration, a right angle, abnormal volumes...
Most often, this is followed by an equally rapid collapse...
Be careful with your long positions in silver if you are buying at current prices.
I closed all my longs on this asset.
Ps alpha played out. Silver beta on gold. And Eth beta on Bitcoin. This means that Eth will outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns in this cycle, and altcoins will outperform Eth in terms of returns.
Yes, this will happen. But many will already be out of the market. That's the game.
UPD: I am expecting the same movement for copper, followed by oil prices
Now there is vertical acceleration, a right angle, abnormal volumes...
Most often, this is followed by an equally rapid collapse...
Be careful with your long positions in silver if you are buying at current prices.
I closed all my longs on this asset.
Ps alpha played out. Silver beta on gold. And Eth beta on Bitcoin. This means that Eth will outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns in this cycle, and altcoins will outperform Eth in terms of returns.
Yes, this will happen. But many will already be out of the market. That's the game.
UPD: I am expecting the same movement for copper, followed by oil prices
Ricardo Connection
Silver's “last dance”... Now there is vertical acceleration, a right angle, abnormal volumes... Most often, this is followed by an equally rapid collapse... Be careful with your long positions in silver if you are buying at current prices. I closed all…
The DXY index is the main indicator of liquidity in the system.
Let me remind you that all previous alt seasons started at around 94 on the DXY.
It is currently at 97.
In my opinion, the DXY will reach 94 by the second quarter of 2026.
It is important to add that this is assuming there are no major geopolitical shocks that could negatively affect the cryptocurrency market.
Let me remind you that all previous alt seasons started at around 94 on the DXY.
It is currently at 97.
In my opinion, the DXY will reach 94 by the second quarter of 2026.
It is important to add that this is assuming there are no major geopolitical shocks that could negatively affect the cryptocurrency market.
btw one interesting idea on the investment market is buying Strive (ticker ASST).
This is an investment, not speculation. From a RR perspective, it really catches my attention.
This story has the growth potential of Palantir...
With the potential of prb growth, there are naturally risks here it's a startup 😁
This is an investment, not speculation. From a RR perspective, it really catches my attention.
This story has the growth potential of Palantir...
With the potential of prb growth, there are naturally risks here it's a startup 😁
Some information from my research
Current cycle 2024-2025
The FED's balance sheet is shrinking.
Interest rates are falling but remain quite high in order to stimulate lending.
Liquidity in the US has been falling all this time.
2026:
The Fed's balance sheet begins to grow.
QE lite launched through promissory notes.
Repurchase of $600 billion in mortgage securities in 2026.
Spending from the TGA wallet of $400 billion by March 2026.
Bear markets:
2018 - start of Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2022 - Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2025 - Fed balance sheet reduction
Interest rates have started to fall, but they are still high
Decline in liquidity in the US
2025 - The tariff war has ruined everything.
Now a new round is beginning. Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, Taiwan - these are all risks for crypto.
We are living in the most difficult geopolitical period since World War again.......
No one knows the future.
If tariffs are not too high and everyone agrees, the moon awaits us in 2026 due to the expansion of the FED's balance sheet...
If there are escalations, well, nothing depends on us here.
DYOR 😉
Current cycle 2024-2025
The FED's balance sheet is shrinking.
Interest rates are falling but remain quite high in order to stimulate lending.
Liquidity in the US has been falling all this time.
2026:
The Fed's balance sheet begins to grow.
QE lite launched through promissory notes.
Repurchase of $600 billion in mortgage securities in 2026.
Spending from the TGA wallet of $400 billion by March 2026.
Bear markets:
2018 - start of Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2022 - Fed balance sheet reduction (QT)
Decline in global liquidity
Interest rate hikes
2025 - Fed balance sheet reduction
Interest rates have started to fall, but they are still high
Decline in liquidity in the US
2025 - The tariff war has ruined everything.
Now a new round is beginning. Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, Taiwan - these are all risks for crypto.
We are living in the most difficult geopolitical period since World War again.......
No one knows the future.
If tariffs are not too high and everyone agrees, the moon awaits us in 2026 due to the expansion of the FED's balance sheet...
If there are escalations, well, nothing depends on us here.
DYOR 😉
This is primarily my diary. As long as Im motivated, Ill share my useful thoughts 🫡
My Macro Alpha business cycle (Most of it has already been done, let's sum up the results):
1) Gold is the first to start growing (as it and Bitcoin are most sensitive to global liquidity).
2) After gold rises, silver begins to rise.
3) Next, copper begins to rise! I haven't written about this anywhere. But I have longs in this asset. My long was opened a few weeks ago.
Copper completes the metal growth cycle. And it indicates a good economic recovery.
4) The oil growth cycle is coming to an end. This is real macro alpha. The screenshot shows the gold chart with a 2-year shift (blue) and the oil chart (black).
Oil follows gold with a time lag. This is one of the best alphas I have ever seen.
This means that the period of 2026 will most likely be marked by high oil prices.
This means that it makes sense to buy commodity companies around the world, especially those linked to oil.
An incredible chart-an incredible alpha.
Metals are on fire right now 🔥
The metal cycle is linked to China's business cycle. Since they started printing money in the summer of 2025, they will likely continue to do so until at least the summer of 2026.
This will have a positive effect on raw materials and metals.
You also know that, in my opinion, Bitcoin is very cyclical with the Chinese CSI 300.
2016-2017 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2020-2021 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2025-2026 China prints money
...
Many have seen the copper chart and how everything moves in sync with the crypto cycle. But few understand that copper is 80% dependent on the Chinese business cycle!
There is no magic in the growth of metals-it is China and its stimulus.
Copper, palladium, platinum, lithium-all dependent on China.
1) Gold is the first to start growing (as it and Bitcoin are most sensitive to global liquidity).
2) After gold rises, silver begins to rise.
3) Next, copper begins to rise! I haven't written about this anywhere. But I have longs in this asset. My long was opened a few weeks ago.
Copper completes the metal growth cycle. And it indicates a good economic recovery.
4) The oil growth cycle is coming to an end. This is real macro alpha. The screenshot shows the gold chart with a 2-year shift (blue) and the oil chart (black).
Oil follows gold with a time lag. This is one of the best alphas I have ever seen.
This means that the period of 2026 will most likely be marked by high oil prices.
This means that it makes sense to buy commodity companies around the world, especially those linked to oil.
An incredible chart-an incredible alpha.
Metals are on fire right now 🔥
The metal cycle is linked to China's business cycle. Since they started printing money in the summer of 2025, they will likely continue to do so until at least the summer of 2026.
This will have a positive effect on raw materials and metals.
You also know that, in my opinion, Bitcoin is very cyclical with the Chinese CSI 300.
2016-2017 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2020-2021 China prints money
Which coincided with Bitcoin's highs
2025-2026 China prints money
...
Many have seen the copper chart and how everything moves in sync with the crypto cycle. But few understand that copper is 80% dependent on the Chinese business cycle!
There is no magic in the growth of metals-it is China and its stimulus.
Copper, palladium, platinum, lithium-all dependent on China.
One of my observations is that every asset (stocks or cryptocurrencies, it doesn't matter) is tied to US government debt.
If we look at assets such as GOLD, SILVER, COOPER, the S&P500 index, and others, we can see a 99% correlation. Sooner or later, crypto assets will also catch up with this curve.
Why is this happening? Devaluation + the influence of geopolitical factors + the addition of liquidity to the system.
Based on my observations, altcoins will always outperform these statistics i.e rise much higher.
Based on this, can we see $20,000/ETH? It sounds crazy, but it's quite realistic. We'll see the results in the future!
If we look at assets such as GOLD, SILVER, COOPER, the S&P500 index, and others, we can see a 99% correlation. Sooner or later, crypto assets will also catch up with this curve.
Why is this happening? Devaluation + the influence of geopolitical factors + the addition of liquidity to the system.
Based on my observations, altcoins will always outperform these statistics i.e rise much higher.
Based on this, can we see $20,000/ETH? It sounds crazy, but it's quite realistic. We'll see the results in the future!
The 4-year cycle has been disrupted but I hope you understand why this happened 😩
btw each cycle ends with vertical upward candles. Never invest in a train that has already left - you will lose all your money
btw each cycle ends with vertical upward candles. Never invest in a train that has already left - you will lose all your money
For the first time in four years, we have seen an expansion of the business cycle.
All alt seasons occurred during the expansion of the black figure (on the screen). All previous highs of the Bitcoin cycle coincided with the highs of the business cycle expansion. All highs on the Russell 2000 coincided with the expansion of the business cycle.
Bitcoin peaks always coincided with business cycle peaks.
2017: complete coincidence.
2021: complete coincidence.
The problem with people is that a cycle is not about days and weeks; a cycle is about days and weeks in the right macro conditions!
Altseason 2025 - no altseason - because of the evil President Trump.
No :)
The business cycle is below zero!
This is a 100% pattern!
This is the answer to the question of why there is no altseason!
Macroeconomics is much more important than everything else
All alt seasons occurred during the expansion of the black figure (on the screen). All previous highs of the Bitcoin cycle coincided with the highs of the business cycle expansion. All highs on the Russell 2000 coincided with the expansion of the business cycle.
Bitcoin peaks always coincided with business cycle peaks.
2017: complete coincidence.
2021: complete coincidence.
The problem with people is that a cycle is not about days and weeks; a cycle is about days and weeks in the right macro conditions!
Altseason 2025 - no altseason - because of the evil President Trump.
No :)
The business cycle is below zero!
This is a 100% pattern!
This is the answer to the question of why there is no altseason!
Macroeconomics is much more important than everything else
Since Ethereum is a macro asset, it trades against the dollar.
ETH in the global macro game moves in line with US debt and global liquidity.
Considering that Blackrock has increased its stake in Tom Lee's BitMine several times over the last quarter, the guys clearly believe in ETH. Bitmine is 3-5 leverage on Ethereum itself.
Ps Im actively accumulating this asset for the long term. And prices of 10-20-30k are just a matter of time before we get there!
Is this a guarantee?
There are no guarantees in the venture market, only probabilities.
Considering that Vitalii attends dinner parties hosted by Trump, which are usually attended by the heads of top American companies, Ethereum has a promising future.
ETH in the global macro game moves in line with US debt and global liquidity.
Considering that Blackrock has increased its stake in Tom Lee's BitMine several times over the last quarter, the guys clearly believe in ETH. Bitmine is 3-5 leverage on Ethereum itself.
Ps Im actively accumulating this asset for the long term. And prices of 10-20-30k are just a matter of time before we get there!
Is this a guarantee?
There are no guarantees in the venture market, only probabilities.
Considering that Vitalii attends dinner parties hosted by Trump, which are usually attended by the heads of top American companies, Ethereum has a promising future.
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Look how far China has advanced in robot development.
They are already developing military humanoids that will participate in future wars.
The next step is to integrate AI into robots. This will result in an incredible combination of intelligence and technology.
Ps:
Investing in companies that develop such robots is a gold mine.
One of the future leaders in this industry will be Tesla, with its "Optimus" humanoids.
They are already developing military humanoids that will participate in future wars.
The next step is to integrate AI into robots. This will result in an incredible combination of intelligence and technology.
Ps:
Investing in companies that develop such robots is a gold mine.
One of the future leaders in this industry will be Tesla, with its "Optimus" humanoids.
FED Balance Sheet vs Others
Starting at the end of December 2025, something we had all been waiting for so long finally happened!
The Fed's balance sheet began to grow rapidly after many years of decline.
Growth in the Fed balance sheet = liquidity entering the system.
The last cycle of the Fed balance sheet reversal marked the bottom for altcoins... followed by years of coin growth!
Starting at the end of December 2025, something we had all been waiting for so long finally happened!
The Fed's balance sheet began to grow rapidly after many years of decline.
Growth in the Fed balance sheet = liquidity entering the system.
The last cycle of the Fed balance sheet reversal marked the bottom for altcoins... followed by years of coin growth!
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The US and Israel vs Iran
A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days?
Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market.
Obviously, there are several goals, including changing the ruling regime in Iran.
But the main goal is to take control of Iranian oil in order to influence China.
Iran responded significantly to all US bases in the Middle East.
Part of a downed missile fell on a hotel in Dubai.
It is difficult to say how long this will last...
My basic assumption is no more than 7-10 days.
As usual, the US market reacts with a drop lasting a couple of days, sometimes longer.
On average, the decline is 5-8%, then the market moves into growth in almost 95% of cases.
A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days?
Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market.
Obviously, there are several goals, including changing the ruling regime in Iran.
But the main goal is to take control of Iranian oil in order to influence China.
Iran responded significantly to all US bases in the Middle East.
Part of a downed missile fell on a hotel in Dubai.
It is difficult to say how long this will last...
My basic assumption is no more than 7-10 days.
As usual, the US market reacts with a drop lasting a couple of days, sometimes longer.
On average, the decline is 5-8%, then the market moves into growth in almost 95% of cases.
Ricardo Connection
The US and Israel vs Iran A protracted war or a conflict lasting several days? Traditionally, all attacks by the Americans and their allies take place on weekends, so as not to crash the US stock market. Obviously, there are several goals, including changing…
Update on the war: USA, Israel, allies vs Iran
It’s obvious that the basic American plan didn’t work.
They managed to eliminate Iran’s leader and the top military command, but the expectation was that people would come out with flags and overthrow the regime. That didn’t happen.
From the initially declared 4 days of attacks, we smoothly moved to a week, then two weeks, and now the discussion is about months. We’ve seen something like this before in 2022.
Few expected Iran to strike at the most sensitive point in the world - raw materials and energy. Iran is attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries.
Iran’s objective is clear: they want chaos across the entire Middle East.
The entire Arab aviation route has effectively been paralyzed.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it opens the path for oil to reach $100-150 in the near future (unless there are sudden changes).
Iran wants to throw global markets into chaos.
European and Chinese stock markets are already plunging, and if this continues for long, the U.S. markets will also face a collapse.
Iran’s strategy is to force allies to pressure Trump to end these special military operations.
Trump clearly miscalculated, expecting a quick war and a quick victory.
Rising oil prices mean rising inflation. Then comes higher interest rates. And that creates a vicious cycle.
Considering that Trump wants to win the congressional elections, a prolonged war and rising inflation are definitely not what he wanted.
😭 Summary:
If the conflict remains active and Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked for more than a month, it won’t be good for the markets.
For everyone:
China, Europe, and the United States could all enter a severe downturn.
Trump understands this and is already organizing NATO countries for a strike on Iran.
But we still don’t know how strongly China and Russia are supporting Iran.
Unfortunately, we have entered a period of total wars where there are no rules. Leaders can be bombed and assassinated.
Before World War II, starting in the 1930s, countries were engaged in tariff wars and sanctions… and then a real large-scale war began.
It’s obvious that the basic American plan didn’t work.
They managed to eliminate Iran’s leader and the top military command, but the expectation was that people would come out with flags and overthrow the regime. That didn’t happen.
From the initially declared 4 days of attacks, we smoothly moved to a week, then two weeks, and now the discussion is about months. We’ve seen something like this before in 2022.
Few expected Iran to strike at the most sensitive point in the world - raw materials and energy. Iran is attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other countries.
Iran’s objective is clear: they want chaos across the entire Middle East.
The entire Arab aviation route has effectively been paralyzed.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it opens the path for oil to reach $100-150 in the near future (unless there are sudden changes).
Iran wants to throw global markets into chaos.
European and Chinese stock markets are already plunging, and if this continues for long, the U.S. markets will also face a collapse.
Iran’s strategy is to force allies to pressure Trump to end these special military operations.
Trump clearly miscalculated, expecting a quick war and a quick victory.
Rising oil prices mean rising inflation. Then comes higher interest rates. And that creates a vicious cycle.
Considering that Trump wants to win the congressional elections, a prolonged war and rising inflation are definitely not what he wanted.
If the conflict remains active and Iran continues striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked for more than a month, it won’t be good for the markets.
For everyone:
China, Europe, and the United States could all enter a severe downturn.
Trump understands this and is already organizing NATO countries for a strike on Iran.
But we still don’t know how strongly China and Russia are supporting Iran.
Unfortunately, we have entered a period of total wars where there are no rules. Leaders can be bombed and assassinated.
Before World War II, starting in the 1930s, countries were engaged in tariff wars and sanctions… and then a real large-scale war began.
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