boot's book of moderately ok analysis.
I did some research and it seems like the math on this checks out. However, these resolve in weird ways sometimes so I always bid small on these markets. You can scroll the comments in the chat on this market on Kalshi and see the nerd who inspired me to researchβ¦
Seems there is cross platform consensus that the Pope is most likely to be on the list. The question is, is he number #1? The math still maths.
π1
I'm building out a thesis on DeFi. It's full circle narrative wise.
https://x.com/i/status/1998234977356669101
https://x.com/i/status/1998234977356669101
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
Honestly, I feel like a lot of these DeFi βdinosaurβ tokens will be hugely on meta for most of 2026.
$UNI, for example, is trading roughly 50% below where it was when the protocol fee-switch was announced, and that is likely to go live in Q1 or Q2 2026.β¦
$UNI, for example, is trading roughly 50% below where it was when the protocol fee-switch was announced, and that is likely to go live in Q1 or Q2 2026.β¦
π₯2β€1
Forwarded from Rick
π The White Whale [45.6M/96%] $WHITEWHALE πΌ
π Solana @ Pump π₯
π° USD:
π FDV:
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πΎ TRY: Experimental π Reposter
#5π° USD:
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πΎ TRY: Experimental π Reposter
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π’3β€1
boot's book of moderately ok analysis.
I'm building out a thesis on DeFi. It's full circle narrative wise. https://x.com/i/status/1998234977356669101
There wasn't so much of a "sell the news" event here but I don't think that this is a bad hold going into 2026. The pack for value is really thinning and at worst $UNI underperforms relative to majors going into next year, and at best, the buy-back/burn narrative sees people start to value DeFi at > current prices. So, is $10 here possible? Historically yes.
π3
I've been thinking about this for a while and I know it's counter narrative to be bullish on buy backs but I think it's great optics/confidence vs anything else.
I mean, what else is the money for? There obviously isn't a 1-1 price spike because market caps etc and people will sell into them. But for dinosaur DeFi tokens I am much more bullish that they push for something other than governance as utility on the coin.
We'll have to see how it plays out but I am still betting this year is for DeFi. It's cyclically the most sense narrative.
Reply to mert with a TL;DR on why buybacks are not terrible.
https://x.com/i/status/2007571324751818884
I mean, what else is the money for? There obviously isn't a 1-1 price spike because market caps etc and people will sell into them. But for dinosaur DeFi tokens I am much more bullish that they push for something other than governance as utility on the coin.
We'll have to see how it plays out but I am still betting this year is for DeFi. It's cyclically the most sense narrative.
Reply to mert with a TL;DR on why buybacks are not terrible.
https://x.com/i/status/2007571324751818884
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
I both agree and disagree with this take.
Yes, buybacks can be pessimistic mechanistically, inferred need for the mechanism itself basically says this.
But...
From a narrative perspective, buybacks are confidence-building. If revenue flows back to theβ¦
Yes, buybacks can be pessimistic mechanistically, inferred need for the mechanism itself basically says this.
But...
From a narrative perspective, buybacks are confidence-building. If revenue flows back to theβ¦
β€2
Expanded thoughts on DeFi here as a narrative
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2007619303781060829?s=20
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2007619303781060829?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
DeFi isn't dead. It rebranded.
π1
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008057208773419128?s=20
Been thinking about "cycles" and where we stand right now as an industry.
TL;DR of it all is - back assets. Don't wait for things to retrace or cycle back to lows. Just buy good stuff that is cycle independent. It's much more likely that model is cooked, and most stuff goes to zero, than rotates back. The industry is more cyclic but there are no cycles per say.
Been thinking about "cycles" and where we stand right now as an industry.
TL;DR of it all is - back assets. Don't wait for things to retrace or cycle back to lows. Just buy good stuff that is cycle independent. It's much more likely that model is cooked, and most stuff goes to zero, than rotates back. The industry is more cyclic but there are no cycles per say.
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
I think the concept of cycles is largely cooked. Macro is fundamentally different with institutional money propping up BTC/ETH, and the amount of new coins in circulation is orders of magnitude grβ¦
π2
Forwarded from Rick
π The White Whale [84.6M/29%] $WHITEWHALE πΌ
π Solana @ Pump
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π5
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008297393608085609?s=20
Reading about this now in more detail. Going to research if their are more credible sources. But the Drug money to BTC pipeline makes a lot of sense. Instability via banana republics going down for our asset class is a major issue we don't really talk about.
Reading about this now in more detail. Going to research if their are more credible sources. But the Drug money to BTC pipeline makes a lot of sense. Instability via banana republics going down for our asset class is a major issue we don't really talk about.
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
This is crazy.
If this is true, it could mean the U.S. government seizes the 4th-largest BTC supply ($60B+), or insiders panic-dump huge bags ahead of enforcement.
Either scenario = serious volatility.
If true, of courseβ¦
If this is true, it could mean the U.S. government seizes the 4th-largest BTC supply ($60B+), or insiders panic-dump huge bags ahead of enforcement.
Either scenario = serious volatility.
If true, of courseβ¦
π2
This is a new strategy I've been running for some decent gains. Low stakes optionality just makes sense. Like yeh this might not happen but it isn't crazy if it does and you're gonna give me a 10x. Better odds than memecoins.
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008462357446463858?s=20
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008462357446463858?s=20
π€2π2β€1
My thoughts on where we are in terms of narratives for 2026. IMO this is the year of biohacking. Stuff like peptides will be so on brand that they could have their own mini meta run.
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008632234732122379?s=20
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008632234732122379?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
People have been asking me what / why Iβm buying recently, so I thought Iβd explain it in terms of narratives vs specific coins.
Broadly speaking, Iβm long on...
- AI
- Vibecoding
- Looksmaxxing
- Tik Tik slop
- Long degeneracy
These are narrative bucketsβ¦
Broadly speaking, Iβm long on...
- AI
- Vibecoding
- Looksmaxxing
- Tik Tik slop
- Long degeneracy
These are narrative bucketsβ¦
β€1
The Iran stuff might play out sooner than we thought. Check Polymarket imo, easy markets on this one. https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2009458998756651154?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
I've aggressively added to my $10 position.
I unironically think this has a decent chance of resolving in the next 3 months. I've tiered bids across Jan/March/June. βYES by year-endβ at 56c still feels criminally undervalued.
I unironically think this has a decent chance of resolving in the next 3 months. I've tiered bids across Jan/March/June. βYES by year-endβ at 56c still feels criminally undervalued.
π2
Probably everyone has seen this by now but this actually might bring some stability back to the trenches.
My biggest issue of late has been "why hold" when it's a rotational game driven by dev fees. Mitigating that with a different structure allows traders to also win, which is pretty important in the scheme of this if you ask me. I was, pretty damn worried for the state of onchain for a while now. This helps with some of those concerns. Let's see what happens
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2009837875781619985?s=20
My biggest issue of late has been "why hold" when it's a rotational game driven by dev fees. Mitigating that with a different structure allows traders to also win, which is pretty important in the scheme of this if you ask me. I was, pretty damn worried for the state of onchain for a while now. This helps with some of those concerns. Let's see what happens
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2009837875781619985?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
This is bullish.
@a1lon9 says "major changes are coming" to creator revenue fees in an effort to remove the lopsided incentive structure for serial devving.
I was worried when we had the highest swap volume day on Pump this week w/o any major runners.β¦
@a1lon9 says "major changes are coming" to creator revenue fees in an effort to remove the lopsided incentive structure for serial devving.
I was worried when we had the highest swap volume day on Pump this week w/o any major runners.β¦
π3
building a product rn. If you want early access just shoot me a DM. I'll put you on the beta list.
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2011567937510130093?s=20
https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2011567937510130093?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
I was super sceptical of the vibecoders on the timeline.
I thought it was legitimate larp tech and that there was no real difference between AI models when it came to building.
That was until I built an actual, useful crypto product in my spare time.β¦
I thought it was legitimate larp tech and that there was no real difference between AI models when it came to building.
That was until I built an actual, useful crypto product in my spare time.β¦
π₯5
honestly this is super bullish for $PUMP. Probably would have been wise to bid the lows last month. They've got unlimited money so I can't see them leaving crypto. https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2013485319450948025?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
I think this makes a lot of sense.
Pump was always an βeverything platform.β
Itβs a launchpad for ideas, not limited to memes just because thatβs what was trending.
Coins will (and do) take many forms. There is no pivot here.
Pump was always an βeverything platform.β
Itβs a launchpad for ideas, not limited to memes just because thatβs what was trending.
Coins will (and do) take many forms. There is no pivot here.
π₯1
Some thoughts on the future state of the industry. Also probably a thesis on AI agents being the natural evolution to what we use in this space. https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2018076352117932277?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
boot (@lowercaseboot) on X
I've been thinking about this a lot, and the trends and appetite for crypto are changing.
The future state of βluxuryβ or βmaking itβ has inverted entirely, because the greatest privilege is beinβ¦
The future state of βluxuryβ or βmaking itβ has inverted entirely, because the greatest privilege is beinβ¦
Hello.
I let this channel slide but am back. We shall prosper again in the big 26.
I let this channel slide but am back. We shall prosper again in the big 26.
π₯7β€2π1