Hello all,

I'm kicking off the channel again but with more focus on a journal of what I'm interested in, rather than trying to call the next 100x. The current market conditions are much more aligned with long-term thesis plays and playing around with new tools/dapps, so sharing the journey makes more sense.

Starting tomorrow I'll share much more long-form thoughts on where we are as an industry, what I've been looking at, and where I think we're heading - and where we should be hedging our attention in this new era for crypto.

Eventually I will update this to a mailing list also, but for now it will be more routine posts in here with what I find interesting.

I did some research and it seems like the math on this checks out. However, these resolve in weird ways sometimes so I always bid small on these markets. You can scroll the comments in the chat on this market on Kalshi and see the nerd who inspired me to research this.

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/1994311228471300128?s=20

Seems there is cross platform consensus that the Pope is most likely to be on the list. The question is, is he number #1? The math still maths.

I'm building out a thesis on DeFi. It's full circle narrative wise.

https://x.com/i/status/1998234977356669101

Pain...

There wasn't so much of a "sell the news" event here but I don't think that this is a bad hold going into 2026. The pack for value is really thinning and at worst $UNI underperforms relative to majors going into next year, and at best, the buy-back/burn narrative sees people start to value DeFi at > current prices. So, is $10 here possible? Historically yes.

Thoughts going into 2026

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2006614937599197454?s=20

I've been thinking about this for a while and I know it's counter narrative to be bullish on buy backs but I think it's great optics/confidence vs anything else.

I mean, what else is the money for? There obviously isn't a 1-1 price spike because market caps etc and people will sell into them. But for dinosaur DeFi tokens I am much more bullish that they push for something other than governance as utility on the coin.

We'll have to see how it plays out but I am still betting this year is for DeFi. It's cyclically the most sense narrative.

Reply to mert with a TL;DR on why buybacks are not terrible.

https://x.com/i/status/2007571324751818884

Expanded thoughts on DeFi here as a narrative

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2007619303781060829?s=20

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008057208773419128?s=20

Been thinking about "cycles" and where we stand right now as an industry.
TL;DR of it all is - back assets. Don't wait for things to retrace or cycle back to lows. Just buy good stuff that is cycle independent. It's much more likely that model is cooked, and most stuff goes to zero, than rotates back. The industry is more cyclic but there are no cycles per say.

This was my retirement play (if I held).

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008297393608085609?s=20

Reading about this now in more detail. Going to research if their are more credible sources. But the Drug money to BTC pipeline makes a lot of sense. Instability via banana republics going down for our asset class is a major issue we don't really talk about.

This is a new strategy I've been running for some decent gains. Low stakes optionality just makes sense. Like yeh this might not happen but it isn't crazy if it does and you're gonna give me a 10x. Better odds than memecoins.

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008462357446463858?s=20

My thoughts on where we are in terms of narratives for 2026. IMO this is the year of biohacking. Stuff like peptides will be so on brand that they could have their own mini meta run.

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2008632234732122379?s=20

The Iran stuff might play out sooner than we thought. Check Polymarket imo, easy markets on this one. https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2009458998756651154?s=20

Probably everyone has seen this by now but this actually might bring some stability back to the trenches.

My biggest issue of late has been "why hold" when it's a rotational game driven by dev fees. Mitigating that with a different structure allows traders to also win, which is pretty important in the scheme of this if you ask me. I was, pretty damn worried for the state of onchain for a while now. This helps with some of those concerns. Let's see what happens

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2009837875781619985?s=20

building a product rn. If you want early access just shoot me a DM. I'll put you on the beta list.

https://x.com/lowercaseboot/status/2011567937510130093?s=20