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πŸ”΄ U.S. ECONOMIC CALENDAR (UTC) WEEK 01 – SEPTEMBER 2026 This week, the main focus will be U.S. labor market data, especially the August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, alongside ISM, JOLTS, and ADP data. πŸ“Œ Key events to watch: 🟑 14:00 UTC, Tuesday, Sep 01:…
πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ AUGUST ADP JOBS GROWTH WEAKEST SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR

πŸ–€ The U.S. private sector added just 38,000 jobs in August.
πŸ–€ Below the 48,000 forecast and down from 44,000 in the previous month.
πŸ–€ This is the lowest level since January 2026, signaling that the labor market continues to cool.
πŸ”΄ The probability of a Fed rate hike in September is now around 66%.

πŸ“Œ Next major focus – Nonfarm Payrolls at 19:30 on Friday (04/09):
πŸ–€ Jobs added: forecast 58K (previous = -23K)
πŸ–€ Unemployment rate: forecast 4.1% (previous = 4.1%)

Weak ADP data helps cool growth expectations, but Nonfarm Payrolls will be the real β€œdecider” for the Fed’s September decision.

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U.S. Adopts β€œTanker-for-Tanker” Policy, Strikes 2 Iranian Oil Tankers

πŸ”΄ The U.S. has implemented a β€œtanker-for-tanker” policy: if Iran attacks a vessel, the U.S. retaliates by targeting an Iranian oil tanker.
πŸ–€ The U.S. has just attacked 2 oil tankers belonging to the Iranian government.
πŸ–€ The volume of oil escorted by the U.S. through the Strait of Hormuz has reached a record high since the conflict began.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Washington is stepping up its strategy β€” no longer just defending shipping lanes, but directly targeting Iranian oil tankers.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ PUTIN BACKS IRAN – U.S. WARNS OTHERS TO β€œSTAY AWAY”

πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί President Putin publicly pledged support for Iran after meeting President Masoud Pezeshkian at the SCO summit in Kyrgyzstan.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Russia and other major powers not to provide economic or military support to Iran.


πŸ›’ Brent crude edged lower this morning, trading below $90.
⚑️ Although both sides continue to retaliate, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday β€” the highest level since the conflict began.

The recovery in oil flows through Hormuz is helping ease prices, but the U.S.–Iran economic standoff remains far from over.

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πŸ”₯ G20 BACKS CLEAR REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR CRYPTO
🟒 The G20 group, including China, supports the development of a clear regulatory framework for digital assets.
🟒 Finance ministers and central bank governors believe crypto could support economic growth.
πŸ‘‰ The goal: Maintain financial stability while creating room for controlled digital innovation.

πŸͺ™ Crypto is gradually being brought into the global policy mainstream, rather than remaining a fringe issue.

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U.S. Issues $1 Coin Featuring Trump

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The U.S. has officially put into circulation a $1 coin featuring President Trump.
🟣 This marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has appeared on currency currently in circulation.
🟣 The coin was issued to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States.

From the White House to the dollar coin β€” Trump’s image is now appearing across both U.S. policy and currency.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ Trump Confirms Xi Jinping Will Visit the White House

πŸ”΄ Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Trump at the White House on September 24.
πŸ–€ Xi is skipping the United Nations General Assembly to prioritize a summit with the U.S. β€” their second meeting this year.
πŸ–€ Key topics will include AI, tariffs, Taiwan, chips, and the Iran war.
πŸ–€ The U.S. is expected to impose a new 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods before Xi arrives.

This will be a heavyweight meeting β€” negotiations on one side, while Washington tightens tariff pressure before both sides sit down at the table.

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πŸ“ˆ BTC and Gold Turn Green Again

🟣 Bitcoin and gold moved back into positive territory following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
🟣 Waller is leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged at the September 16 meeting if August inflation continues to cool.
🟣 Compared with July, his stance has become less hawkish; with the economy and labor market still holding up, he will focus closely on inflation data.

πŸ”΄ August CPI, due on September 11, will be the key milestone:
πŸ–€ Moving closer to the 2% target β†’ higher chance of keeping rates unchanged.
πŸ–€ Higher than expected β†’ a small rate hike could remain possible.

⚑️ The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has fallen from 66% β†’ 54%.

Even a slightly β€œsofter” signal from Waller was enough to give BTC and gold some breathing room ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI.

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πŸ”΄ Today at 12:30 UTC – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls:
πŸ–€ Jobs added: forecast 56K (previous = -23K)
πŸ–€ Unemployment rate: forecast 4.1% (previous = 4.1%)

πŸ“ˆ Markets are already pricing in a softer Fed signal, but today’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be the real test.

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WTI Hovers Around $89.50 as U.S. Escorts Oil Tankers Through Hormuz

πŸ›’ WTI crude is trading around $89.50.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The U.S. military escorted oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week.
πŸ”΄ Supply through Hormuz remains constrained, so oil prices have not fallen sharply despite the escort operations.

Oil is still β€œstuck” at elevated levels β€” as long as Hormuz remains restricted, WTI is unlikely to cool down significantly.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ Trump Considering Declaring an End to the Iran War?

πŸ™ According to the WSJ, President Trump is privately discussing with senior advisers the possibility of declaring an end to the war with Iran.
πŸ–€ A major source of pressure is the November 3 midterm election.
πŸ–€ Some aides have warned that if the conflict continues to expand, Republicans could lose further support.
πŸ–€ A Reuters/Ipsos poll from late August showed only 31% of Americans support the war, while 63% oppose it.
πŸ–€ This is still only an option under discussion β€” no official decision has been made.


πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The U.S. still maintains around 50,000 troops in the Middle East, with some deployments extending into 2027.

The war is not over yet, but the political clock ahead of the midterms has started β€œcounting down.” ✊

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πŸ”₯ Tether Posts $1.3B Q2 Profit, Excess Reserves Rise Above $5.2B

πŸͺ™ Tether reported $1.3 billion in net operating profit for Q2, according to an attestation report from BDO.
πŸ–€ Excess reserves increased to $5.2 billion, providing a buffer above the amount required to fully back USDT.
πŸ–€ Profits were driven mainly by holdings of U.S. Treasuries in a high-interest-rate environment.
πŸ–€ The excess reserve buffer helps absorb shocks and strengthens confidence in USDT.

πŸ› USDT remains the β€œlifeblood” of the crypto market β€” so Tether’s financial health affects the entire ecosystem, not just one stablecoin.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ August Nonfarm Payrolls Come in Surprisingly Hot

🟒 Jobs added: 162,000 (forecast = 56,000, previous month = -23,000)
🟒 Unemployment rate: 4.1% (in line with forecast, unchanged from the previous month)
🟒 Average hourly earnings MoM: +0.3% (in line with forecast, previous month = 0.1%)
🟒 July payrolls were revised up by 43,000 jobs, turning the figure from negative to positive.

➑️ The probability of a Fed rate hike on September 17 has risen again.
- Bitcoin fell below $80K.

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