Two new reports from AI Conjecture expand the usual AI-geopolitics forecasts. Until now, all scenarios focused only on the two AI superpowers. The new view adds middle powers and the picture gets much darker.
The classic three doctrines
1. Dominance: First to advanced AI becomes permanently supreme.
2. Extinction: Superintelligence escapes control and wipes out humanity.
3. Replacement: AI accelerates progress but concentrates power dangerously.
Scenario 4: Preemptive strike
From RAND:
A superpower fearing itβs losing the AGI race may launch a preemptive (even nuclear) attack to stop the rival before βsuperintelligenceβ is reached.
Scenario 5: Middle-Power Coalition
Taiwan, the Netherlands, South Korea and others could unite.
They canβt win the AI race but they control key supply chains and could act as a stabilizing force to prevent superpower escalation.
Scenario 6: Nuclear Middle Power
A state with nukes but no chance in the AI race could set red lines for the U.S. and China: βCross this AI threshold and we strike.β Extremely risky, a misread milestone becomes a global tripwire.
Which scenario looks more likely?
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New AI system - SciAgent exceeds human gold medalists on several Science Olympiads, using one unified architecture.
There are no discipline specific modules. Just pure cross domain scientific reasoning. The implications for research automation and multi domain AI reasoning are enormous.
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Google is committing $40B through 2027 to expand its Cloud and AI footprint across Texas, including new data centers in Armstrong and Haskell counties and massive investment into energy resilience.
Whatβs happening
β’ Building large-scale cloud + AI data centers across Texas
β’ Strengthening the stateβs energy capacity to handle next-gen compute demand
β’ Funding programs to double the pipeline of new Texas electricians needed for the AI boom
β’ Thousands of new jobs expected across construction, operations, and energy sectors
This is less a regional bet and more a signal of the fierce race to secure energy and talent for the next wave of AI infrastructure.
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Elon: Neuralink patients talk almost as fast as anyone else now
"So Neuralink is also making good progress. Now has over 10 patients with Neuralink implants. And these people who didn't have the ability to move their arms or legs, in some cases, were completely locked in, like Stephen Hawking.
And they can now communicate, I think, as quickly or almost as quickly as we're communicating right now. Which is very cool, and that's gonna continue to accelerate."
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"So Neuralink is also making good progress. Now has over 10 patients with Neuralink implants. And these people who didn't have the ability to move their arms or legs, in some cases, were completely locked in, like Stephen Hawking.
And they can now communicate, I think, as quickly or almost as quickly as we're communicating right now. Which is very cool, and that's gonna continue to accelerate."
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After Steve Jobs' death from cancer, Tim Cook took over the leadership of Apple and built it into the major tech company it is today.
Cook is often criticized for lacking the creativity and genius of a Steve Jobsβand that's certainly true. What distinguishes Tim Cook is his brilliance in expanding supply chains and transforming Apple into the global manufacturing giant it is today; lean, efficient processes. And that is Cook's genius. Therefore, the criticism that simply compares him to Jobs is too simplistic.
With Cook's departure, an era is coming to an end. It remains to be seen who will succeed him. "The company is unlikely to name a new CEO before its next earnings report in late January, which covers the critical holiday period.β
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Elon Musk: "We see a path to putting 100 gigawatts per year of solar-powered AI satellite into orbit. And having this be actually the lowest cost way to power and operate AI at a very large scale
For reference, the United States consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year. Because the average power load in the US is 460 gigawatts"
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For reference, the United States consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year. Because the average power load in the US is 460 gigawatts"
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This is absolutely stunning: Demonstration of the ALLEX system, developed by the South Korean company Wirobotics. This advanced robotic hand can perform delicate tasks with exceptional precision in movement and fine-tuned force control, enabling it to handle fragile objects safely and accurately.
2026 = year of humanoid robots.
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2026 = year of humanoid robots.
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Chinaβs CHIPX lab claims to have built the first scalable, industrial-grade optical quantum chip that can run certain AI workloads up to 1,000Γ faster than Nvidia GPUs. The photonic chip packs over 1,000 optical components onto a 6-inch wafer, scales to β1 million qubits,β and can be deployed in weeks instead of months - though production remains limited at ~12,000 wafers per year.
If the performance claims hold, it marks a major step in Chinaβs race for quantum advantage, as Western firms like Nvidia push similar optical-quantum tech but havenβt yet shown comparable scale!
Source.
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