IDF Spokesperson: We have destroyed more than half of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. We struck the production systems so thoroughly that it will be difficult for them to recover from it.
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Israel’s lesson from October 7 is that intentions do not matter—only capabilities do. For years, the IDF ignored the terror monster rising on its borders and instead focused on whether the enemy intended to attack or whether it was in its interest to do so. Similarly, although it is tempting to dwell on sentiments in Tehran, it is irrelevant. The only question is whether Iran currently has the capability to pose a real threat to Israel. The answer, after 40 days of war, is: less than it did forty days ago.
In practical terms, Iran promised it would not sign a temporary ceasefire—and it did. It said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen—and it reopened. It swore to include ending the war in Lebanon—and Hezbollah suffered hundreds of casualties yesterday. This is what remains of the Iranian axis that once cast fear across the Middle East.
The Iranian “victory image,” encouraged by broad segments of the international media, arguesthat Iran survived ten rounds against the heavyweight world champion and lives to tell the tale.
The question is what that survival is worth.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah used the draw with Israel in the 2006 Second Lebanon War to receive a blank check from his Iranian patrons and build a formidable axis of resistance. What will Iran now do with this sense—real or fabricated—of survival?
After Operation Rising Lion, every available Iranian rial was invested in rebuilding the ballistic missile array, seen as the only answer to Israel. The result was a relatively quick recovery, but also enormous public anger that was suppressed only at the cost of massacre. Now there is much to rebuild and far fewer rials: should Iran buy a new navy? an air force? invest in missiles? rebuild Hezbollah, which is groaning under a heavy deficit? or invest domestically to calm a population whose situation has only worsened? The condition of the former Iranian empire is dire, and there are no signs of improvement on the horizon.
The Gulf states that were attacked by Iran have not forgotten the lesson. They are not Israel, accustomed to rounds of fighting every year or two. Generations of Emiratis, Qataris, and Saudis will carry the trauma of running to unprotected spaces while tourism, stability, and energy went up in flames. Israel stands to gain greatly from this anti-Iranian coalition, which was effectively forced off the fence and is unlikely to return to it soon. One can hope that Trump and Netanyahu are tying the Gulf states into a more stable and public alliance, for the benefit of future generations.
The (temporary?) end of the war also marks the opening of the Knesset election campaign. Netanyahu, who hoped to ride the fall of the Iranian regime all the way to preserving his rule in Israel, now faces a more complex task than he expected when launching the operation.
There is a sense of sourness among the public over the gap between hopes of toppling the regime and the mid-war outcome. The bigger challenge is on the northern border, where public sentiment is harsh—and rightly so—after promises that Hezbollah had been defeated. Opposition leaders have identified this well and competed with one another in describing what they call a disgraceful historic failure, hoping voters will connect more with that than with Netanyahu’s promises of total victory. For the prime minister, toppling Iran in the coming months is a task of supreme importance not only strategically, but also for his political survival. Everyone hopes the Iranian regime will fall soon; Netanyahu would be glad if it falls, if possible, before October 27.
In practical terms, Iran promised it would not sign a temporary ceasefire—and it did. It said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen—and it reopened. It swore to include ending the war in Lebanon—and Hezbollah suffered hundreds of casualties yesterday. This is what remains of the Iranian axis that once cast fear across the Middle East.
The Iranian “victory image,” encouraged by broad segments of the international media, arguesthat Iran survived ten rounds against the heavyweight world champion and lives to tell the tale.
The question is what that survival is worth.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah used the draw with Israel in the 2006 Second Lebanon War to receive a blank check from his Iranian patrons and build a formidable axis of resistance. What will Iran now do with this sense—real or fabricated—of survival?
After Operation Rising Lion, every available Iranian rial was invested in rebuilding the ballistic missile array, seen as the only answer to Israel. The result was a relatively quick recovery, but also enormous public anger that was suppressed only at the cost of massacre. Now there is much to rebuild and far fewer rials: should Iran buy a new navy? an air force? invest in missiles? rebuild Hezbollah, which is groaning under a heavy deficit? or invest domestically to calm a population whose situation has only worsened? The condition of the former Iranian empire is dire, and there are no signs of improvement on the horizon.
The Gulf states that were attacked by Iran have not forgotten the lesson. They are not Israel, accustomed to rounds of fighting every year or two. Generations of Emiratis, Qataris, and Saudis will carry the trauma of running to unprotected spaces while tourism, stability, and energy went up in flames. Israel stands to gain greatly from this anti-Iranian coalition, which was effectively forced off the fence and is unlikely to return to it soon. One can hope that Trump and Netanyahu are tying the Gulf states into a more stable and public alliance, for the benefit of future generations.
The (temporary?) end of the war also marks the opening of the Knesset election campaign. Netanyahu, who hoped to ride the fall of the Iranian regime all the way to preserving his rule in Israel, now faces a more complex task than he expected when launching the operation.
There is a sense of sourness among the public over the gap between hopes of toppling the regime and the mid-war outcome. The bigger challenge is on the northern border, where public sentiment is harsh—and rightly so—after promises that Hezbollah had been defeated. Opposition leaders have identified this well and competed with one another in describing what they call a disgraceful historic failure, hoping voters will connect more with that than with Netanyahu’s promises of total victory. For the prime minister, toppling Iran in the coming months is a task of supreme importance not only strategically, but also for his political survival. Everyone hopes the Iranian regime will fall soon; Netanyahu would be glad if it falls, if possible, before October 27.
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Bennett: The war’s objectives have not been achieved, the government is tearing Israel apart from within.
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Vice President J.D. Vance:
It was a misunderstanding — the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, but we never promised that. The Israelis, as I understand it, offered on their own initiative to show some restraint in Lebanon in order to help the talks succeed. Not because it was part of the ceasefire agreement.
It was a misunderstanding — the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, but we never promised that. The Israelis, as I understand it, offered on their own initiative to show some restraint in Lebanon in order to help the talks succeed. Not because it was part of the ceasefire agreement.
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A police force and forensic investigators from the Shai District were called to the Tayaseer area following a report received from the IDF about an Israeli civilian who was seriously injured and evacuated for medical treatment at a hospital, and a Palestinian who was killed as a result of gunfire.
According to the report, after an incident in which several Palestinians threw stones at a number of Israeli civilians near Tayaseer, one Israeli civilian was seriously injured. In response, shots were fired toward Palestinians in the area, resulting in the death of one Palestinian.
This is a preliminary report; authorities are currently at the scene.
According to the report, after an incident in which several Palestinians threw stones at a number of Israeli civilians near Tayaseer, one Israeli civilian was seriously injured. In response, shots were fired toward Palestinians in the area, resulting in the death of one Palestinian.
This is a preliminary report; authorities are currently at the scene.
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Yesha Council:
The severe attack in the northern Jordan Valley, in which Arabs brutally assaulted a Jew with a rock in an attempt to murder him, is further proof of the ongoing terror threat directed against the pioneers of the farm outposts.
This is murderous terrorism fueled by systematic incitement in the Palestinian Authority—incitement that receives encouragement and support from Iran.
The severe attack in the northern Jordan Valley, in which Arabs brutally assaulted a Jew with a rock in an attempt to murder him, is further proof of the ongoing terror threat directed against the pioneers of the farm outposts.
This is murderous terrorism fueled by systematic incitement in the Palestinian Authority—incitement that receives encouragement and support from Iran.
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Sirens in the north right now.
According to reports from Lebanon, close to two hundred people were killed yesterday in an IDF strike.
According to reports from Lebanon, close to two hundred people were killed yesterday in an IDF strike.
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Trump: We will keep our forces in the Gulf. If no agreement is reached, the fire will resume.
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An Israeli official sums it up in numbers:
During Operation Roaring Lion,
36,000 munitions were fired compared to 3,700 in Operation Lion’s Mane — almost ten times as many.
Ballistic missiles: 1,200 out of 2,500 were destroyed or launched. The ability to produce new missiles has been severely damaged.
Yesterday in Lebanon, 220 terrorists were eliminated, most of them commanders.
During Operation Roaring Lion,
36,000 munitions were fired compared to 3,700 in Operation Lion’s Mane — almost ten times as many.
Ballistic missiles: 1,200 out of 2,500 were destroyed or launched. The ability to produce new missiles has been severely damaged.
Yesterday in Lebanon, 220 terrorists were eliminated, most of them commanders.
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The Minister of Education, Yoav Kisch: I have instructed preparations for a government decision allocating 750 million shekels to expand the “Schools of the Long Summer Vacation” program from third to sixth grade, and to provide preparatory courses for middle schools aimed at meaningful learning. It won’t be simple, but we’ll work with it and prepare accordingly.
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IDF: We have eliminated in Beirut the secretary and nephew of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem.
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Spain announced the reopening of its embassy in Tehran.
Foreign Minister Sa’ar: “Hand in hand with the terror regime. A disgrace for eternity.”
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar in response to the announcement by Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares about the reopening of Spain’s embassy in Tehran:
“The Iranian terror regime is renewing executions of its citizens, protesters, and political dissidents.
Spain is reopening its embassy in Tehran.
Hand in hand. Without shame.
A disgrace for eternity.”
Foreign Minister Sa’ar: “Hand in hand with the terror regime. A disgrace for eternity.”
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar in response to the announcement by Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares about the reopening of Spain’s embassy in Tehran:
“The Iranian terror regime is renewing executions of its citizens, protesters, and political dissidents.
Spain is reopening its embassy in Tehran.
Hand in hand. Without shame.
A disgrace for eternity.”
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Cleared for publication: Under Iranian direction, residents of Haifa and the north rented an apartment and produced explosives there in order to target a senior official.
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**Joint statement by the Shin Bet spokesperson and the Israel Police spokesperson:**
*The Shin Bet and the Israel Police have arrested an Israeli citizen, a resident of Haifa, on suspicion of carrying out security missions for Iranian intelligence elements, including the production of explosives intended to harm a senior public figure.*
As part of a joint operation by the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) and Lahav 433 of the Israel Police, in March 2026, Ami Gaydarov, 22, a resident of Haifa, was arrested on suspicion of committing security offenses involving contact with Iranian intelligence elements and assisting the enemy during wartime by carrying out missions under their direction.
The investigation by the Shin Bet and the police revealed that Gaydarov had been in contact with an Iranian operative since August 2025 and, as part of this connection, carried out numerous missions in exchange for large sums of money. Acting under his handler’s direction, Gaydarov agreed to produce explosives intended to target a senior public figure.
To maintain contact with his handlers, Gaydarov purchased dedicated mobile phones and rented an apartment in Haifa where he manufactured the explosives. He documented his activity in photos and videos, which he sent to his handler as proof of fulfilling his assignments.
During his relationship with the Iranian operative, Gaydarov involved several friends and enlisted their help in purchasing raw materials required to produce the explosives. As a result, several additional Israeli citizens from the north were arrested for questioning, among them Sergey Libman and Eduard Shubtiuk. The investigation found that they assisted Gaydarov in purchasing materials, concealing the explosives, and conducting a test of the explosive’s effectiveness, each according to their part.
It was further revealed that during the “Roar of the Lion” war, Gaydarov was instructed by his handler to send the Iranians images of the Haifa port, missile impact sites in the north, and was even asked to locate a property for rent overlooking the port area to install a fixed camera there.
For all his activities, Gaydarov received more than 70,000 shekels, most of which was transferred through digital wallets.
Today (Thursday), a prosecutor’s declaration was submitted in his case, and indictments are expected to be filed against him and others in the coming days.
The Israel Security Agency and the Israel Police again warn Israeli citizens and residents against engaging in contact with foreign elements from enemy states or unidentified entities—and certainly against carrying out missions for them in exchange for payment or for any other reason.
Israel’s security agencies will continue to locate and thwart acts of terrorism and espionage in Israel and will act to bring all those involved in such activity to justice to the fullest extent of the law.
*The Shin Bet and the Israel Police have arrested an Israeli citizen, a resident of Haifa, on suspicion of carrying out security missions for Iranian intelligence elements, including the production of explosives intended to harm a senior public figure.*
As part of a joint operation by the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) and Lahav 433 of the Israel Police, in March 2026, Ami Gaydarov, 22, a resident of Haifa, was arrested on suspicion of committing security offenses involving contact with Iranian intelligence elements and assisting the enemy during wartime by carrying out missions under their direction.
The investigation by the Shin Bet and the police revealed that Gaydarov had been in contact with an Iranian operative since August 2025 and, as part of this connection, carried out numerous missions in exchange for large sums of money. Acting under his handler’s direction, Gaydarov agreed to produce explosives intended to target a senior public figure.
To maintain contact with his handlers, Gaydarov purchased dedicated mobile phones and rented an apartment in Haifa where he manufactured the explosives. He documented his activity in photos and videos, which he sent to his handler as proof of fulfilling his assignments.
During his relationship with the Iranian operative, Gaydarov involved several friends and enlisted their help in purchasing raw materials required to produce the explosives. As a result, several additional Israeli citizens from the north were arrested for questioning, among them Sergey Libman and Eduard Shubtiuk. The investigation found that they assisted Gaydarov in purchasing materials, concealing the explosives, and conducting a test of the explosive’s effectiveness, each according to their part.
It was further revealed that during the “Roar of the Lion” war, Gaydarov was instructed by his handler to send the Iranians images of the Haifa port, missile impact sites in the north, and was even asked to locate a property for rent overlooking the port area to install a fixed camera there.
For all his activities, Gaydarov received more than 70,000 shekels, most of which was transferred through digital wallets.
Today (Thursday), a prosecutor’s declaration was submitted in his case, and indictments are expected to be filed against him and others in the coming days.
The Israel Security Agency and the Israel Police again warn Israeli citizens and residents against engaging in contact with foreign elements from enemy states or unidentified entities—and certainly against carrying out missions for them in exchange for payment or for any other reason.
Israel’s security agencies will continue to locate and thwart acts of terrorism and espionage in Israel and will act to bring all those involved in such activity to justice to the fullest extent of the law.
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The explosives were prepared against former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
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Operation Roaring Lion is over. It didn't end the way—or in the time—many expected. But look at Iran today. Beneath the posturing and the bravado, the truth is undeniable: this was a victory.
Also, the Iranian damage assessment, the Lebanon dilemma, and more.
All in today’s edition of It’s Noon in Israel.
https://open.substack.com/pub/amitsegal/p/its-noon-in-israel-operation-roaring-925?r=1gxt62&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Also, the Iranian damage assessment, the Lebanon dilemma, and more.
All in today’s edition of It’s Noon in Israel.
https://open.substack.com/pub/amitsegal/p/its-noon-in-israel-operation-roaring-925?r=1gxt62&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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