The annual inflation rate in the US jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in both February and January. Figures came in line with forecasts, with the rise primarily driven by higher energy costs (12.5%), mostly gasoline (up 18.9%) and fuel oil (44.2%), due to the war with Iran. On the other hand, prices for used cars and trucks continued to decline (-3.2% vs -3.2%) while inflation steadied for shelter (3% vs 3%) and eased for food (2.7% vs 3.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February and also in line with forecasts, boosted by a 21.2% jump in gas prices. Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes food and energy, also picked up though much more moderately, to an annual rate of 2.6%, compared to forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.2%

-US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Keep in mind, March price increases were probably muted as it takes time for the effects of the war in Iran to work their way through most prices. The next report (the April report) comes out on May 12th. The simple fact is that we are less and less likely to see a return to "normal" anytime soon.

Even before the conflict, some analysts were sounding the alarm that the era of low inflation could be well behind us. For most of the period between the late 80s and the covid era, we witnessed a very comfortable inflation rate by historical standards. This was largely due to the fact that China absorbed most of the demand for manufactured goods and trade between nations was becoming simpler.

In many ways, the trend is expected to reverse. Populations are aging, labor populations are shrinking, the low-hanging fruit has been picked, and tariffs and military conflicts are leading to a reduction in the reliability if international trade. Covid was also a wake-up call that sprawling international trade networks are vulnerable in a crisis. If AI and automation don't pan out, we will be left with a world that is constantly losing productivity. The conflicts we see now are simply putting pressure on an already stressed system.

-Zinderneuf

Oil prices will start to decline in the next 3-9 months, said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

According to him, this will be facilitated by the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, after which the Emirates are likely to significantly increase their production volumes.

In addition, Bessent suggested that oil, which was stuck in the Middle East due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, will soon start flowing back into the market.

Meanwhile, experts and industry representatives give a completely different forecast of the situation - if the blockade of Hormuz continues, oil and petroleum product prices will rise sharply in the near future.

Literally nobody believes a word coming out of this administration. These are the same people that tell us Iran is totally defeated.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has directly contradicted Bessent, stating that gasoline may not dip below $3 until next year (2027), rather than this summer.

Analysts from UBS and Wood Mackenzie expect a "muted impact" initially. They predict it could take up to six months just to return to pre-conflict production levels once shipping resumes, with the most material supply increases not hitting until 2027.

Chatham House note that even after a reopening, it will take significant time to clear the shipping backlog and stabilize insurance rates for tankers.

Additional:

The UAE currently produces 3.6 million barrels of oil per day for global markets. They plan to eventually ramp up to 5 million. That's a small increase in the context of a 104 million barrel per day market amidst a 20 million bpd disruption.

Don't get me wrong, it will put a ceiling on oil prices long term, but it won't have a large impact in the next year.

Tinder profile vs reality

Peskov announces major address by Putin at Victory Parade

The President will deliver a speech at the parade celebrating Victory Day on May 9. The entire world is awaiting Putin's address - and rightly so. The President's speech will be of great significance.

The President will also hold bilateral meetings with foreign leaders, including Robert Fico and Alexander Lukashenko, who are traveling to Moscow for the Victory Parade. Additionally, Putin will congratulate the Presidential Regiment on its 90th anniversary.

Peskov has actually piqued my interest. Perhaps Putin will reveal how and when Russia intends to win this war against the entire West in Ukraine? After all, nothing is more important to Russia today than that.

From t.me/vicktop55

If Americans are taking public transit, you know things are bad.

The operation "Project Freedom" announced by Trump to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz does not imply mandatory accompaniment of commercial vessels by US Navy ships, according to Axios, citing two American officials.

According to one of the sources, US Navy ships will be "in the immediate vicinity" in case they need to prevent alleged possible attacks by Iranian military on commercial vessels passing through the strait.

In addition, the sources claim that the Navy will provide commercial vessels with information on the safest sea routes to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Go for it, we got your back! Promise!

Israeli linked firms exploited global telecom networks for mass surveillance, tracking mobile users in over 10 countries, including Thailand, Norway, South Africa, Bangladesh, and Malaysia, over the past three years, according to Citizen Lab and Haaretz.

Legacy and 5G systems were turned into "tracking devices," with 15,700+ location tracking attempts since Nov 2022. Documents show companies like Verint/Cognyte sold SS7 based tools (SkyLock) to governments, while firms like Rayzone, via Swiss telecom Fink, impersonated carriers to access networks. Techniques included SIMjacking, using hidden SMS messages to extract device locations.

This shows how easily global telecom systems can be turned into surveillance tools. Your phone can be tracked without your knowledge. Without stronger protections, this kind of abuse will only spread.

The US sanctions empire runs into China's great wall

On April 23, the US Treasury Department widened its Iran sanctions drive to target Chinese firms allegedly tied to Tehran's oil trade, raising the stakes in an already volatile confrontation over energy flows and wartime risk. China has now moved beyond condemning US sanctions to formally ordering non compliance, with China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) making its ban effective immediately.

What was once framed as a dispute over a handful of Iranian oil shipments is now emerging as a broader struggle over who sets the legal and financial terms of global energy trade. And with instability still shadowing the Strait of Hormuz, Beijing's latest move suggests Washington's sanctions regime is no longer being quietly absorbed inside China...

A very interesting article by Freddie Ponton for 21st Century Wire.

Trump torpedoed a potential win against Iran by falling for hawkish hype from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies...

...The ceasefire had already handed the US a victory: Trump exited a costly war while Iran lost leverage, especially over oil prices. Yet he threw it all away with a reckless blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, chasing a fantasy "silver bullet" that would crush Iran economically. Instead, oil prices soared, global fertilizer shortages loomed, and diplomatic openings evaporated.

This is classic Trump: ignoring reality, chasing grandiose shortcuts, and letting advisors with an agenda push disastrous policies. Military threats, targeted killings, and bombings haven't forced Iran to fold, proving the administration's overconfidence and incompetence. In trying to dominate Tehran, Trump's reckless micromanagement turned a quiet win into a self inflicted headache.

I personally didn't see any "win" in any of it. As far as I can tell, the whole thing was an unmitigated disaster.

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Handala claims to have infiltrated US Navy systems, revealing the identities of 400 high ranking officers stationed in the Persian Gulf in what it dubs "Operation Premature Death..."

...The group released a comprehensive roster including ranks and assignments, asserting that their surveillance reaches every move of the deployed fleet. Handala said the officers received direct alerts on secure devices, cautioning that the waters are no longer safe for those pursuing aggressive actions in West Asia.

The statement denounced US operational security as shattered, insisting this demonstrates constant vigilance within the heart of the fleet. Handala warned that no base or ally can offer protection, ending with threats of imminent retaliation and destruction.

"Project Freedom" is off to a great start!

Oilprice.com

A fragile four-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be on the brink of collapse following a violent exchange of fire in the Persian Gulf on Monday. The flareup drew in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and sent global oil prices soaring as threats to the strategic Strait of Hormuz intensified.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that American forces fought off an array of Iranian drones, missiles, and small boats while facilitating the passage of two US-flagged vessels. President Donald Trump confirmed via Truth Social that the US had "shot down seven small boats" during the encounter.

The escalation follows Trump's announcement of "Project Freedom," a plan to guide neutral ships—many running low on food—out of the waterway. In response, Tehran’s semi-official Fars news agency claimed the Islamic Republic fired shots at US Navy ships, while Tasnim news agency announced that Iran has "redefined the control zone" in the strait to regulate shipping traffic.

Once again, the conflict expands beyond the U.S., Israel, and Iran dynamic as the UAE blamed an Iranian drone strike for a large fire at the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone. While the Emirati Defense Ministry stated that three of four incoming cruise missiles were intercepted, the attacks hospitalized three people and prompted the state to issue its first missile alerts to residents since the April 8 ceasefire began.

Right now, the Middle East is facing a massive shipping crisis because the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil and trade chokepoint, is effectively blocked due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. This has left over 3,000 shipping containers full of food, medicine, and industrial goods stranded at Pakistani ports. To fix this, Pakistan just opened six "land corridors" that allow trucks to carry these goods directly across the border into Iran, bypassing the dangerous sea routes entirely.While this looks like a simple logistics fix, it’s actually a huge win for Iran.

Since early April 2026, a U.S. naval blockade has been strangling Iranian ports to cut off their economy. By opening these land routes, Pakistan has essentially given Iran a "backdoor" to the world. Now, instead of goods being seized or blocked at sea by the U.S. Navy, they can be unloaded in Pakistan and driven straight into Iran, making the U.S. blockade much less effective.For the United States, this is a major headache because it weakens their primary leverage.

The U.S. relies on "maximum pressure" through naval power and sanctions to force Iran to the negotiating table. If Iran can just truck in everything it needs through a neighbor like Pakistan, the U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf loses its teeth. It shows that regional players are starting to prioritize their own survival over following Washington’s lead.In short, we are seeing a shift where geography is beating military might. Pakistan is clearing its crowded ports and making money on transit fees, while Iran is getting a vital lifeline to stay supplied. This move strengthens a regional alliance between Iran, Pakistan, and China (who uses many of these routes), while leaving the U.S. with fewer ways to actually enforce its sanctions and blockades on the ground.