Using the long-term holder cost basis, an estimate for the market price paid, and the profit ratios of the past two cycles, estimates for price sold, we can multiply the two to get implied cycle top prices for this cycle.
For example, the long-term holder cost basis is now $17,751. If long-term holders look to take the same level of profits like they did at the previous all-time high (804%), the cycle price would need to be $160,469. If they expected to take profit levels at the peak in January 2018 (1,974%), the cycle price would need to be $368,157. A midpoint between the two would be 1,389% with a price around $264,000.
It’s also a fair assumption that long-term holders may expect lower profit percentage returns as larger returns diminish over time. So the long-term holder SOPR peak may exist below the January 2018 peak but above the previous all-time high, assuming that we haven’t reached the cycle top yet.
For example, the long-term holder cost basis is now $17,751. If long-term holders look to take the same level of profits like they did at the previous all-time high (804%), the cycle price would need to be $160,469. If they expected to take profit levels at the peak in January 2018 (1,974%), the cycle price would need to be $368,157. A midpoint between the two would be 1,389% with a price around $264,000.
It’s also a fair assumption that long-term holders may expect lower profit percentage returns as larger returns diminish over time. So the long-term holder SOPR peak may exist below the January 2018 peak but above the previous all-time high, assuming that we haven’t reached the cycle top yet.
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