🪙 ProjectSyndicate | Weekly FX & Gold Recap

📊 Markets closed Friday with the dollar firmer post-FOMC after the Fed trimmed rates by 25bps but struck a cautious “meeting-by-meeting” tone.

✨ Gold hit a fresh record >$3,700 early week before easing, ending near $3,680/oz as yields/greenback firmed.
💶 EUR/USD slipped back toward 1.1740 after failing to hold mid-week gains, euro pressured by USD resilience.
💷 GBP/USD weakened to ~1.3465, as UK fiscal worries compounded dollar strength.
💴 USD/JPY climbed, finishing around 147.9, yen heavy after BoJ stayed on hold while Fed support buoyed the buck.

🧭 Takeaway:
Fed cut gave gold a record pop but USD demand capped follow-through. Euro & sterling sagged under policy/fiscal drags, while yen stayed soft with BoJ sidelined. Next catalysts = fresh U.S. data + central-bank speak to set tone into late September.

XAUUSD H2 XABCD SHORT/LONG sequence with price targets
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/zc7tK0H5-XAUUSD-H2-XABCD-SHORT-LONG-sequence-with-price-targets/

🔸Hello traders, let’s review the 2-hour chart for GOLD (XAUUSD). Price action has been volatile, but the market continues to respect harmonic levels. We are tracking a clean XABCD harmonic structure, offering both higher-risk and lower-risk opportunities depending on your trading style.

🔸Speculative XABCD structure defined by the following pivots:
X = 3625 A = 3689 B = 3639 C = 3709 D/PRZ = 3603
This setup has now confirmed the PRZ/D point, giving us potential reversal scenarios.
Advanced short entry was from C at 3709 with target exit at D/PRZ 3603 – higher-risk setup now completed.

🔸Trade Analysis and overview:
Advanced short was available from point C at 3709 with exit target at PRZ/D 3603. This was a higher-risk play, but it has now completed successfully.
Now we shift focus to the lower-risk reversal setup: buying near the D/PRZ level at 3603. Harmonic patterns often suggest strong bounce potential from the PRZ, making this a solid buy/hold opportunity.

🔸Strategy & Targets:
BUY/HOLD from PRZ/D = 3603
TP1 = 3700 (first profit zone / re-test of structure)
TP2 = 3750 (extended target into higher resistance)
Manage risk with proper SL placement beneath PRZ.

🔸Key Notes:
Pattern suggests a bullish reversal from current zone.
Traders should remain patient as volatility around PRZ is common.
This is a swing trade setup, so allow time for structure to develop toward TP levels.

🔮✨EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/iMd3POBu-EUR-USD-Outlook-Catalysts-and-Q4-2025-Forecast/

💵 🎯 Q4 2025 Forecast & Range
• Base-case: EUR/USD around $1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, drifting toward ~1.20 by year-end.
• Bull case: Faster US slowdown, Fed cuts, euro resilience → test 1.25+.
• Bear case: Fed stays hawkish, euro weakens → drop toward 1.15 (with risk down to 1.10–1.12).

Upside scenario 🚀: Fed cuts early, ECB steady, risks ease. EUR/USD breaks 1.20, retests 1.22–1.25 zone, option gamma squeezes add momentum.
Downside scenario ⚠️: US data strong, Fed stays sticky, crisis drives safe-haven USD. EUR/USD drops below 1.15 → targets 1.10–1.12.
On balance: Technicals & positioning favor base/bull outcome. EUR/USD above DMA cluster, sentiment allows more upside. Break >1.18 turns 1.20 into support, opens 1.22–1.25 zone. Invalidation = sharp drop below 1.15.

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