ail3 Blog
50 subscribers
1.62K photos
1.63K videos
11 files
974 links
🌐GEO POL NEWS

I share what I find, when I have time I do my own research.

Posts will vary depending on what is going on and what interests me, mainly major geopolitical events.

🔞Content is intended for a mature audience.

⚠️READ PINNED⚠️
Download Telegram
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
... Putin “has broken ceasefires 25 times over the last 10 years” - 23:34

The conversation then starts escalating from when Trump says he is not aligned with anyone - 39:00

Vice president JD Vance then says diplomacy is needed - 40:04

Zelenskyy replies they tried diplomacy and it didn't work - 41:38

JD brings up problems UKR is having with the war, Zelenskyy replies that even the US will feel the “influence” of the war - 43:00

Trump and JD lose their temper and start berating Zelenskyy, saying he is “gambling with ww3” - 43:55

They say Zelenskyy is not being grateful enough - 44:09

They say Zelenskyy doesn't want a ceasefire - 45:55

Trump says he “empowered [Zelenskyy] to be a tough guy…you’re either going to make a deal or we’re out. And if we’re out, you’ll fight it out. I don’t think it’s going to be pretty, but you’ll fight it out.” - 48:36
It's important to note that approximately 40% of Ukraine's resources are currently under Russian control, it is speculated that the deal would effectively leave Ukraine’s mineral-rich territories under Russian control, while granting the U.S. exclusive access to resources in non-occupied areas.

If a deal is signed:

The frontline would freeze and give Russia the time to solidify positions and legitimize control in occupied regions.

Meanwhile both Russia and the U.S. would be extracting resources, making the occupied regions dependent on Russia and the rest dependent on the U.S.

It could also be possible that the lifting of sanctions and the restoring of Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be added to the deal, effectively reviving the Russian economy and the European energy dependence on Russia.
The following are the main elements present in UKR:

🔸Coal
Global Reserves: 3.9%
Applications: Electricity Generation,Metal Production, Coal Byproducts
Approx value:$12 trillion

🔸Titanium
Global Reserves: 1%
Applications: Vital for aerospace, medical devices, and pigments.
Approx value: $1 trillion

🔸Graphite
Global Reserves: 6%
Applications: Essential for lithium-ion batteries, nuclear reactors, and various industrial applications.
Approx value: $2.5 billion

🔸Rare Earth Elements
Global Reserves: 5%
Applications: Essential for electronics, renewable energy technologies, and defense systems.
Approx value: $500 billion

🔸Lithium
Global Reserves: 2%
Applications: Crucial for batteries, ceramics, and glass manufacturing.
Approx Value: $10 billion

🔸Uranium
Global Reserves: 2%
Applications: Fundamental for nuclear energy production.
Approx value: $300 billion

🔸Iron Ore
Global Production: 1.7%
Applications: Primary component in steel manufacturing.
Approx value: $225 billion

🔸Manganese
Global Reserves: 1.6%
Applications: Used in steel production and battery technology.
Approx value: $240 billion
❗️It is also of interest that on Feb 21 - U.S. negotiators have raised the possibility of cutting access to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet system if the deal is not signed. (Reuters)

This would effectively cripple Ukrainian defense and offense capabilities since the front lines heavily rely on this technology for communications.
❗️This is a major shift in the geopolitical stage, it shows that U.S. support is now tied to purely economic benefits rather than than strategic or ideological commitments to sovereignty and security.

We are already witnessing steps being taken toward EU independence from the U.S. :

Macron suggested extending France's nuclear deterrence to cover Europe.

U.K. and France made a proposal to deploy troops in UKR

Norwegian oil and shipping company Haltbakk Bunkers started a “boycott U.S.” movement by denying fuel to U.S. sub.

EU leaders already started security talks that exclude the U.S.

The current U.S. stance on Nato is fragile and could potentially mean the end of this organization as we know it.
ail3 Blog
U.S. negotiators have raised the possibility of cutting access to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet system if the deal is not signed.
Audio
📣🛰 Following comments by Elon Musk, The European Union is now actively exploring satellite alternatives to Starlink for Ukraine.

🤝 Negotiations are underway with alternative satellite operators: SES, Hisdesat, Viasat, and Eutelsat/OneWeb.

These discussions aim to create a "patchwork" of European infrastructure that could partially replace Starlink's services.

🔹The EU is also considering its own satellite communication initiatives:

- GovSatCom: A pooled network of existing national government satellite capacity, expected to reach initial operational readiness in 2025.

- IRIS²: A planned constellation of 290 satellites (18 in MEO and 264 in LEO) led by Eutelsat, Hispasat, and SES, though not expected to be fully operational until the 2030s.

❗️🇮🇹 It is also important to note that Italy is in the final stages of talks for a $1.6b deal with Starlink that could very well be cancelled. The deal was initiated to provide secure internet services for the Italian government and military.

Sources: PCmag, Orbitaltoday, mezha, kyivindependent, mil.in
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
March 11, 2025

🛫💥Ukraine launched the biggest drone attack on Moscow since the war began using 337 UAVs out of which 91 were reportedly intercepted.

🩸3 people were killed and 18 others injured, including 3 children.

The attack appears to be a calculated move by Kyiv to demonstrate its continued offensive capabilities and potentially strengthen its negotiating position.

🚀Russia has now threatened a retaliatory strike and suggested using an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile for that purpose.

This would be the same type of munition used in November of 2024.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
US trade Wars 13-03-25
AI gen
🇺🇸⚖️📉US TRADE WAR

In the beginning of March Trump officially started a tariff war with Canada, Mexico, EU and China, stating "Addressing Trade Imbalances and Deficits", "National Security Concerns" primarily citing fentanyl trafficking from China and border security with Canada and Mexico, "Boosting Domestic Manufacturing" and "Using Tariffs as a Negotiation Tool".

⚠️The tariffs currently imposed by the US are:

🇪🇺EU: 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium + 25% tariffs on "cars and all the things"
🇨🇳China: 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium + 20% tariffs on all other goods.
🇨🇦Canada: 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium + 25% tariff on all other goods (delayed to April) + 10% on energy exports

⛹️‍♂️Countries immediately retaliated:

🇪🇺EU: Two phase €26 billion retaliatory plan:
1st phase starting in April: 25% on specific American goods such as jeans, motorcycles, peanut butter and bourbon whiskey. (8 billion euros worth)
2nd phase starting mid April: (% will mirror US tariff) Food and Agricultural Products, Household and Consumer Goods, Industrial Products (18 billion euros worth)

🇨🇦Canada Retaliation:
25% tariffs on steel and aluminium,other goods including computers totalling ($30 billion worth)
Additional $20.6 billion worth of US goods announced to take effect on March 13.

🇨🇳China Retaliation (more than $20 billion):
15% tariff on coals and liquefied natural gas
10% tariff on oil and agricultural machines
15% tariff on American chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton
10% tariff on American sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products

+ Unspecified "crippling" tariffs on American-made vehicles and critical auto parts

+ Sanctions on US Firms:
- PVH Corp. and Illumina added to the Unreliable Entity List.
- Antitrust investigation launched into Google
- 15 US firms prohibited from purchasing Chinese goods, including for military drone manufacturing parts.
- Restrictions on Critical Mineral Exports
- Suspension of Lumber Imports
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🇷🇴 Romanian Air Force intercepted a drone over the national airspace, — Antena 3 CNN.

Two F-16 fighters took off from the Fetești airbase at 18:05 to respond to the threat — they tracked the UAV 20 km southwest of Kiliya-Veke when it disappeared from the radars.

- Romania News

This happens just a few days after Nato intercepted several drones over Poland (yt summary), and activating article 4, resulting in the execution of Operation Eastern Sentry.
Forwarded from Denys Davydov
Today NATO countries began exercises to practice the deployment of troops and equipment to Lithuania, — the NATO Joint Forces Command in the Netherlands
Forwarded from Denys Davydov
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
The Russian Armed Forces deployed the Iskander OTRK on the highway in the Kaliningrad region near the Polish border

No escalation.