Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
OHIO
Trump – 3,154,834 (53.27%)
Biden – 2,679,165 (45.24%)
OH was a blowout in 2016, higher than most predicted, with the margin slightly lighter this year, but with more votes won by. This state, regionally, is clean, compared to the cesspools that are MI and PA. I estimate Biden to be 88k higher than trends, population growth, previous records, and population growth would suggest.
Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
Most curiously (sarcasm), Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland) didn’t appear to have nearly the level of interest in candidate Biden as Wayne Co. (MI) and nearby Allegheny Co. (PA) did. Biden gained just 18k votes, but with declining voter roll and a solid Trump gain, I still flagged 8k as class yellow.
Franklin is the only red, 15k excess, 19% over Obama ’08 new vote growth with solid Trump gain opposing.
If Biden is 88k heavy, Trump’s margin would have been 9.7% (54.0-44.3), a win of 564k votes.
Best for audits – Butler, Delaware, Licking, Lake, Union, Warren
Trump – 3,154,834 (53.27%)
Biden – 2,679,165 (45.24%)
OH was a blowout in 2016, higher than most predicted, with the margin slightly lighter this year, but with more votes won by. This state, regionally, is clean, compared to the cesspools that are MI and PA. I estimate Biden to be 88k higher than trends, population growth, previous records, and population growth would suggest.
Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
Most curiously (sarcasm), Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland) didn’t appear to have nearly the level of interest in candidate Biden as Wayne Co. (MI) and nearby Allegheny Co. (PA) did. Biden gained just 18k votes, but with declining voter roll and a solid Trump gain, I still flagged 8k as class yellow.
Franklin is the only red, 15k excess, 19% over Obama ’08 new vote growth with solid Trump gain opposing.
If Biden is 88k heavy, Trump’s margin would have been 9.7% (54.0-44.3), a win of 564k votes.
Best for audits – Butler, Delaware, Licking, Lake, Union, Warren
Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
IOWA
Trump – 897,672 (53.1%)
Biden – 759,061 (44.9%)
While OH & IA were never in play, IA matches more with MN & WI, and OH goes with PA & MI. IA is swingy. Registrations in medium to large counties all check out, and even the statewide number, just a hair in favor of Democrats, accurately forecasted a 1% drift left. Reagan won Iowa by less in 1984 than in his first campaign.
Green – Low/No Fraud
Iowa is the cleanest state I’ve seen yet. Keep in mind, “all green” doesn’t mean there is no fraud. It just means that trends are in keeping with recent political shifts, and also something IA provides us – registration by party.
One critical point, magnifying the insane Biden numbers elsewhere in the region, especially MN, with a “7% victory" (228k excess), and about 139k in WI.
IA Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -8.4%
Obama ’12: -7.7%
Clinton ’16: +16.1%
MN Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: +9.1%
Obama ’12: +11.1%
Clinton ’16: +25.5%
WI Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -2.8%
Obama ’12: 0.6%
Clinton ’16: +18.0%
Trump – 897,672 (53.1%)
Biden – 759,061 (44.9%)
While OH & IA were never in play, IA matches more with MN & WI, and OH goes with PA & MI. IA is swingy. Registrations in medium to large counties all check out, and even the statewide number, just a hair in favor of Democrats, accurately forecasted a 1% drift left. Reagan won Iowa by less in 1984 than in his first campaign.
Green – Low/No Fraud
Iowa is the cleanest state I’ve seen yet. Keep in mind, “all green” doesn’t mean there is no fraud. It just means that trends are in keeping with recent political shifts, and also something IA provides us – registration by party.
One critical point, magnifying the insane Biden numbers elsewhere in the region, especially MN, with a “7% victory" (228k excess), and about 139k in WI.
IA Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -8.4%
Obama ’12: -7.7%
Clinton ’16: +16.1%
MN Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: +9.1%
Obama ’12: +11.1%
Clinton ’16: +25.5%
WI Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -2.8%
Obama ’12: 0.6%
Clinton ’16: +18.0%
http://umap.openstreetmap.fr/de/map/liste-non-exhaustive-des-manifestations-anti-passs_639587#6/47.003/6.416
NEW - Over 175 protests against vaccine passports reportedly planned in France on July 24
NEW - Over 175 protests against vaccine passports reportedly planned in France on July 24
Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
NEW YORK
Biden – 5,244,886 (60.9%)
Trump – 3,251,997 (37.7%)
NY drifted 1.5% left in reg. and another 0.7% left in vote, but it appears Biden is 292k votes heavy just based on trends. It is clear DJT did well with registered Ds in NY with 432k vote gain. Clinton improved just 70k over Obama; Biden is strangely 689k over Clinton and 440k over Obama 08.
Trump’s biggest improvements were in NYC, with 4 of 5 trending Republican (Richmond would have if clean). Trump won NEW TWO PARTY votes in NYC 180k to 146k. It appears NY did not account for Trump gains in NYC so Bronx at 0.1% and Manhattan at 4% Dem increase paints picture of true city enthusiasm for Biden throughout the US.
Manhattan, Bronx, Queens are in green DUE TO TREND. My analysis doesn’t detect what is baked in for decades.
High – High/Rampant Fraud
Yellow – Likely Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
If Biden is 292k heavy, an accurate margin for him would be 59.5% to 39.0%.
Best audit targets – Richmond, Suffolk, Nassau, Saratoga, Oneida, Onondaga
Biden – 5,244,886 (60.9%)
Trump – 3,251,997 (37.7%)
NY drifted 1.5% left in reg. and another 0.7% left in vote, but it appears Biden is 292k votes heavy just based on trends. It is clear DJT did well with registered Ds in NY with 432k vote gain. Clinton improved just 70k over Obama; Biden is strangely 689k over Clinton and 440k over Obama 08.
Trump’s biggest improvements were in NYC, with 4 of 5 trending Republican (Richmond would have if clean). Trump won NEW TWO PARTY votes in NYC 180k to 146k. It appears NY did not account for Trump gains in NYC so Bronx at 0.1% and Manhattan at 4% Dem increase paints picture of true city enthusiasm for Biden throughout the US.
Manhattan, Bronx, Queens are in green DUE TO TREND. My analysis doesn’t detect what is baked in for decades.
High – High/Rampant Fraud
Yellow – Likely Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
If Biden is 292k heavy, an accurate margin for him would be 59.5% to 39.0%.
Best audit targets – Richmond, Suffolk, Nassau, Saratoga, Oneida, Onondaga
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Sydney protest in Victoria park hasn’t even started yet and the police are already throwing people on the ground. I believe there’s another in Hyde park. Wait until more protesters show up.. big numbers is what they need!