Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Biden – 424,921 (52.71%)
Trump – 365,654 (45.36%)
NOTE: SEE ATTACHED EXPANSION FOR FULL PICTURE
NH was a near-flip for Trump in 2016, just under 3k difference. Trump’s anti-war stance made him a perfect fit to flip NH, as the Iraq War is a key reason Bush lost it in 2004 after carrying it in 2000. Working class shift in effect as seen in the Midwestern states, Dem peak being in 2008, with a heavy share of independent voters.
Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
If Biden is 40k heavy, his lead would dwindle to 50.3 to 47.8% (2.5%), or just 19k votes. If there is vote flipping electronically, this is likely a Trump state. I had it two or less to either candidate (tilt) leading up to the election.
Best for audits – Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, Strafford
Biden – 424,921 (52.71%)
Trump – 365,654 (45.36%)
NOTE: SEE ATTACHED EXPANSION FOR FULL PICTURE
NH was a near-flip for Trump in 2016, just under 3k difference. Trump’s anti-war stance made him a perfect fit to flip NH, as the Iraq War is a key reason Bush lost it in 2004 after carrying it in 2000. Working class shift in effect as seen in the Midwestern states, Dem peak being in 2008, with a heavy share of independent voters.
Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
If Biden is 40k heavy, his lead would dwindle to 50.3 to 47.8% (2.5%), or just 19k votes. If there is vote flipping electronically, this is likely a Trump state. I had it two or less to either candidate (tilt) leading up to the election.
Best for audits – Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, Strafford
This, I’m afraid to say, is THE most disturbing development in months.
I’ve no idea why former stalwarts who regarded “the shots” as superfluous for most, are now almost all singing from the establishment hymn sheet & encouraging their viewers to get vaccinated.
Mike
https://apple.news/AwygeFhl0TQeeKl-hD97BZw
Suddenly, Conservatives Care About Vaccines
A number of leaders on the right suddenly urged their audiences to get vaccinated in the past day. Why now?
Updated at 8:06 p.m. ET on July 20, 2021.
Conservatives are not necessarily vaccine-hesitant, to paraphrase John Stuart Mill, but most vaccine-hesitant Americans are conservatives. Resistance to vaccines has been concentrated among Republican voters, and led by GOP politicians and various leading lights in conservative media.
And that makes the past day or so one of the stranger stretches in recent pandemic politics.
“Just like we’ve been saying, please take COVID seriously. Enough people have died. We don’t need any more deaths. Research like crazy. Talk to your doctor,” Fox News’s Sean Hannity said last night. “It absolutely makes sense for many Americans to get vaccinated.”
Hannity’s “just like we’ve been saying” is doing a lot of work. He reportedly called the pandemic a “hoax” early on, and his colleague Tucker Carlson continues to cast doubt on vaccines, including on yesterday’s program. But Hannity is not alone now. His statement comes as several other major conservatives are speaking up too.
Steve Doocy, one of the anchors of the network’s popular morning show Fox & Friends, has been advocating for vaccines, and tangling with co-hosts over it. “If you have the chance, get the shot,” he said yesterday. “It will save your life.”
[David A. Graham: It’s not vaccine hesitancy. It’s COVID-19 denialism.]
Ben Shapiro of The Daily Wire, who has been a vocal proponent of vaccination all along, also told his followers today on Twitter, “Get vaxxed. I did. My wife did. My parents did.” Newsmax CEO Christopher Ruddy, a confidant of Donald Trump, today published a column praising the current president: “Six months into his administration, President Joe Biden should be applauded for making a huge dent in the COVID pandemic.” House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, who had conspicuously declined to get a shot, offering dubious excuses, announced today that he finally got vaccinated this weekend.
These exhortations have often come in the service of political arguments. In the same breath as his plea for seriousness, Hannity suggested that people who have been infected do not need to be inoculated, misconstruing a scientific study. Shapiro made his point in the midst of a case against lockdowns and mask mandates. Meanwhile, plenty of other major right-wing figures remain quiet or worse.
Nonetheless: The shift in tone among these high-profile voices is sharp and sudden enough to merit notice. A few conservatives have long been outspoken in favor of vaccinations. A group of Republican members of Congress who are medical doctors produced a pro-jab PSA this spring, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been as fiery about COVID-19 precautions as he is about anything. He warned again today, “These shots need to get in everybody’s arm as rapidly as possible or we are going to be back in a situation in the fall, that we don’t yearn for, that we were in last year.”
Fox News, in particular, has been a hive of vaccine skepticism, though. Carlson, the network’s leading personality, was initially a lonely voice in taking the pandemic seriously, but has since become a merchant of doubt. This editorial tack comes even though owner Rupert Murdoch was quick to get his own shot in December. Fox has also reportedly encouraged, though not mandated, employees to disclose their vaccination status, even as Carlson has likened vaccine passports to Jim Crow laws on air.
Why the shift is happening now, and so abruptly, is not clear.
I’ve no idea why former stalwarts who regarded “the shots” as superfluous for most, are now almost all singing from the establishment hymn sheet & encouraging their viewers to get vaccinated.
Mike
https://apple.news/AwygeFhl0TQeeKl-hD97BZw
Suddenly, Conservatives Care About Vaccines
A number of leaders on the right suddenly urged their audiences to get vaccinated in the past day. Why now?
Updated at 8:06 p.m. ET on July 20, 2021.
Conservatives are not necessarily vaccine-hesitant, to paraphrase John Stuart Mill, but most vaccine-hesitant Americans are conservatives. Resistance to vaccines has been concentrated among Republican voters, and led by GOP politicians and various leading lights in conservative media.
And that makes the past day or so one of the stranger stretches in recent pandemic politics.
“Just like we’ve been saying, please take COVID seriously. Enough people have died. We don’t need any more deaths. Research like crazy. Talk to your doctor,” Fox News’s Sean Hannity said last night. “It absolutely makes sense for many Americans to get vaccinated.”
Hannity’s “just like we’ve been saying” is doing a lot of work. He reportedly called the pandemic a “hoax” early on, and his colleague Tucker Carlson continues to cast doubt on vaccines, including on yesterday’s program. But Hannity is not alone now. His statement comes as several other major conservatives are speaking up too.
Steve Doocy, one of the anchors of the network’s popular morning show Fox & Friends, has been advocating for vaccines, and tangling with co-hosts over it. “If you have the chance, get the shot,” he said yesterday. “It will save your life.”
[David A. Graham: It’s not vaccine hesitancy. It’s COVID-19 denialism.]
Ben Shapiro of The Daily Wire, who has been a vocal proponent of vaccination all along, also told his followers today on Twitter, “Get vaxxed. I did. My wife did. My parents did.” Newsmax CEO Christopher Ruddy, a confidant of Donald Trump, today published a column praising the current president: “Six months into his administration, President Joe Biden should be applauded for making a huge dent in the COVID pandemic.” House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, who had conspicuously declined to get a shot, offering dubious excuses, announced today that he finally got vaccinated this weekend.
These exhortations have often come in the service of political arguments. In the same breath as his plea for seriousness, Hannity suggested that people who have been infected do not need to be inoculated, misconstruing a scientific study. Shapiro made his point in the midst of a case against lockdowns and mask mandates. Meanwhile, plenty of other major right-wing figures remain quiet or worse.
Nonetheless: The shift in tone among these high-profile voices is sharp and sudden enough to merit notice. A few conservatives have long been outspoken in favor of vaccinations. A group of Republican members of Congress who are medical doctors produced a pro-jab PSA this spring, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been as fiery about COVID-19 precautions as he is about anything. He warned again today, “These shots need to get in everybody’s arm as rapidly as possible or we are going to be back in a situation in the fall, that we don’t yearn for, that we were in last year.”
Fox News, in particular, has been a hive of vaccine skepticism, though. Carlson, the network’s leading personality, was initially a lonely voice in taking the pandemic seriously, but has since become a merchant of doubt. This editorial tack comes even though owner Rupert Murdoch was quick to get his own shot in December. Fox has also reportedly encouraged, though not mandated, employees to disclose their vaccination status, even as Carlson has likened vaccine passports to Jim Crow laws on air.
Why the shift is happening now, and so abruptly, is not clear.
apple.news
Suddenly, Conservatives Care About Vaccines
A number of leaders on the right suddenly urged their audiences to get vaccinated in the past day. Why now?
💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥
URGENT ACTION CALL
💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥
Everyone must read this, share this everywhere, and then contact every member of congress and insist on the immediate removal of the fraudulently installed regime occupying our White House!!
Devolution Part 5.
Our government KNOWINGLY allowed Dominion and Smartmatic to implement the 2020 election security infrastructure, write the report that claimed the 2020 election was the most secure election ever, and then our DHS covered it up.
Https://patelpatriot.substack.com/p/devolution-part-5
URGENT ACTION CALL
💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥
Everyone must read this, share this everywhere, and then contact every member of congress and insist on the immediate removal of the fraudulently installed regime occupying our White House!!
Devolution Part 5.
Our government KNOWINGLY allowed Dominion and Smartmatic to implement the 2020 election security infrastructure, write the report that claimed the 2020 election was the most secure election ever, and then our DHS covered it up.
Https://patelpatriot.substack.com/p/devolution-part-5
Patel Patriot’s Devolution Series
Devolution - Part 5
The Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency & Dominion Voting Systems
Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
OHIO
Trump – 3,154,834 (53.27%)
Biden – 2,679,165 (45.24%)
OH was a blowout in 2016, higher than most predicted, with the margin slightly lighter this year, but with more votes won by. This state, regionally, is clean, compared to the cesspools that are MI and PA. I estimate Biden to be 88k higher than trends, population growth, previous records, and population growth would suggest.
Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
Most curiously (sarcasm), Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland) didn’t appear to have nearly the level of interest in candidate Biden as Wayne Co. (MI) and nearby Allegheny Co. (PA) did. Biden gained just 18k votes, but with declining voter roll and a solid Trump gain, I still flagged 8k as class yellow.
Franklin is the only red, 15k excess, 19% over Obama ’08 new vote growth with solid Trump gain opposing.
If Biden is 88k heavy, Trump’s margin would have been 9.7% (54.0-44.3), a win of 564k votes.
Best for audits – Butler, Delaware, Licking, Lake, Union, Warren
Trump – 3,154,834 (53.27%)
Biden – 2,679,165 (45.24%)
OH was a blowout in 2016, higher than most predicted, with the margin slightly lighter this year, but with more votes won by. This state, regionally, is clean, compared to the cesspools that are MI and PA. I estimate Biden to be 88k higher than trends, population growth, previous records, and population growth would suggest.
Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
Most curiously (sarcasm), Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland) didn’t appear to have nearly the level of interest in candidate Biden as Wayne Co. (MI) and nearby Allegheny Co. (PA) did. Biden gained just 18k votes, but with declining voter roll and a solid Trump gain, I still flagged 8k as class yellow.
Franklin is the only red, 15k excess, 19% over Obama ’08 new vote growth with solid Trump gain opposing.
If Biden is 88k heavy, Trump’s margin would have been 9.7% (54.0-44.3), a win of 564k votes.
Best for audits – Butler, Delaware, Licking, Lake, Union, Warren
Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
IOWA
Trump – 897,672 (53.1%)
Biden – 759,061 (44.9%)
While OH & IA were never in play, IA matches more with MN & WI, and OH goes with PA & MI. IA is swingy. Registrations in medium to large counties all check out, and even the statewide number, just a hair in favor of Democrats, accurately forecasted a 1% drift left. Reagan won Iowa by less in 1984 than in his first campaign.
Green – Low/No Fraud
Iowa is the cleanest state I’ve seen yet. Keep in mind, “all green” doesn’t mean there is no fraud. It just means that trends are in keeping with recent political shifts, and also something IA provides us – registration by party.
One critical point, magnifying the insane Biden numbers elsewhere in the region, especially MN, with a “7% victory" (228k excess), and about 139k in WI.
IA Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -8.4%
Obama ’12: -7.7%
Clinton ’16: +16.1%
MN Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: +9.1%
Obama ’12: +11.1%
Clinton ’16: +25.5%
WI Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -2.8%
Obama ’12: 0.6%
Clinton ’16: +18.0%
Trump – 897,672 (53.1%)
Biden – 759,061 (44.9%)
While OH & IA were never in play, IA matches more with MN & WI, and OH goes with PA & MI. IA is swingy. Registrations in medium to large counties all check out, and even the statewide number, just a hair in favor of Democrats, accurately forecasted a 1% drift left. Reagan won Iowa by less in 1984 than in his first campaign.
Green – Low/No Fraud
Iowa is the cleanest state I’ve seen yet. Keep in mind, “all green” doesn’t mean there is no fraud. It just means that trends are in keeping with recent political shifts, and also something IA provides us – registration by party.
One critical point, magnifying the insane Biden numbers elsewhere in the region, especially MN, with a “7% victory" (228k excess), and about 139k in WI.
IA Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -8.4%
Obama ’12: -7.7%
Clinton ’16: +16.1%
MN Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: +9.1%
Obama ’12: +11.1%
Clinton ’16: +25.5%
WI Biden vote % over:
Obama ’08: -2.8%
Obama ’12: 0.6%
Clinton ’16: +18.0%
http://umap.openstreetmap.fr/de/map/liste-non-exhaustive-des-manifestations-anti-passs_639587#6/47.003/6.416
NEW - Over 175 protests against vaccine passports reportedly planned in France on July 24
NEW - Over 175 protests against vaccine passports reportedly planned in France on July 24
Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
NEW YORK
Biden – 5,244,886 (60.9%)
Trump – 3,251,997 (37.7%)
NY drifted 1.5% left in reg. and another 0.7% left in vote, but it appears Biden is 292k votes heavy just based on trends. It is clear DJT did well with registered Ds in NY with 432k vote gain. Clinton improved just 70k over Obama; Biden is strangely 689k over Clinton and 440k over Obama 08.
Trump’s biggest improvements were in NYC, with 4 of 5 trending Republican (Richmond would have if clean). Trump won NEW TWO PARTY votes in NYC 180k to 146k. It appears NY did not account for Trump gains in NYC so Bronx at 0.1% and Manhattan at 4% Dem increase paints picture of true city enthusiasm for Biden throughout the US.
Manhattan, Bronx, Queens are in green DUE TO TREND. My analysis doesn’t detect what is baked in for decades.
High – High/Rampant Fraud
Yellow – Likely Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
If Biden is 292k heavy, an accurate margin for him would be 59.5% to 39.0%.
Best audit targets – Richmond, Suffolk, Nassau, Saratoga, Oneida, Onondaga
Biden – 5,244,886 (60.9%)
Trump – 3,251,997 (37.7%)
NY drifted 1.5% left in reg. and another 0.7% left in vote, but it appears Biden is 292k votes heavy just based on trends. It is clear DJT did well with registered Ds in NY with 432k vote gain. Clinton improved just 70k over Obama; Biden is strangely 689k over Clinton and 440k over Obama 08.
Trump’s biggest improvements were in NYC, with 4 of 5 trending Republican (Richmond would have if clean). Trump won NEW TWO PARTY votes in NYC 180k to 146k. It appears NY did not account for Trump gains in NYC so Bronx at 0.1% and Manhattan at 4% Dem increase paints picture of true city enthusiasm for Biden throughout the US.
Manhattan, Bronx, Queens are in green DUE TO TREND. My analysis doesn’t detect what is baked in for decades.
High – High/Rampant Fraud
Yellow – Likely Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
If Biden is 292k heavy, an accurate margin for him would be 59.5% to 39.0%.
Best audit targets – Richmond, Suffolk, Nassau, Saratoga, Oneida, Onondaga