🇺🇸⚡️ — According to data released this week by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since the early 1980s, following an emergency release of 172 million barrels related to the war in Iran. As a result of this reduction, the reserve will contain approximately 243 million barrels, which is significantly higher than the Department of Energy's stated minimum physical level of 70 million barrels, but falls within the range of 250 to 300 million barrels, which some experts consider the practical minimum operating level necessary to maintain the integrity of the caverns and the ability to respond quickly in emergencies.

The debate is not about whether the caverns are empty, but rather about how repeated deep withdrawals and refills affect the long-term geometry, spacing, and performance of the caverns. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve stores oil in 60 underground salt caverns located in four sites along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana. The Department of Energy maintains that the risk of collapse is unfounded and that only the ratio of oil to water within the caverns changes, as they are always full. However, in May, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) stated that repeated partial withdrawals can lead to undesirable cavern shapes, and that each cycle increases the volume of the caverns and reduces the distance between them within the salt dome, even though most of the caverns remained in very good condition after the 2022 release.

The key takeaway is that the Strategic Reserve still functions as a security tool, but as reserves approach 250 million barrels, the market begins to lose confidence not only in the volumes stated on paper, but also in the physical ability of the reserve to quickly supply oil in crisis situations.

@IntelSlava