🇺🇸 US Bonds Lose Their Safe-Haven Status

The long-standing assumption that US Treasuries are a go-to shelter during global turmoil is unraveling. Despite escalating tensions, the usual rush to safety isn’t materializing.

Just hours after the US Treasury revealed plans to triple long-term bond buybacks to $6 billion, yields climbed. The 10-year Treasury rate surged past 4.85% — its highest since November 2023 — marking a 15 basis point jump from pre-announcement levels.

Since the onset of the current conflict with Iran, yields have climbed a full 100 basis points. At this pace, the 10-year yield could breach 5% as early as next week — a troubling signal for American consumers, homebuyers, and anyone relying on borrowed money.

A shift is underway. The market’s trust in US debt as a stable refuge is being tested like never before.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

⚡️ BREAKING: U.S. core consumer prices climbed 0.3% in August — edging past the expected 0.2%.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

🇳🇬 Medicaid Fraud Funds Nigerian Palace

Nigerian chief Nathan Ogobatue allegedly funneled over $36 million from U.S. Medicaid into luxury real estate and a lavish palace in Abatete, Nigeria—complete with gold statues of himself and his wife.

His firm, California Home Health Agency, received $4 million in 2022, $17 million in 2023, and $13 million in 2024. In March, Dr. Mehmet Oz highlighted that one in three U.S. hospice providers is based in Los Angeles—with many suspected to be shell operations.

Investigative journalist Christopher Rufo flagged red flags in billing patterns and payment irregularities. Ogobatue has declined to respond, labeling Rufo a “racist.”

✅ @futures

Ebisa Tech

Another Anthropic insider has raised alarm: AI could pose a serious threat to humanity. Evan Hubinger estimates the odds of human extinction exceeding 10% within the next decade.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

You can replicate someone’s trades.

But you can’t replicate their ability to endure the drawdowns that come with them.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

Oil down 3% has entered the historic intervention zone, where both Trump and the IEA have previously stepped in.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

10-year U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the psychologically significant 5% level.

Societe Generale warns that once yields hit 5.5%, equities may start to come under pressure.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

🇺🇸 Fed Decision Approaching

Next week’s rate decision could shape the trajectory of markets leading into the midterms. Right now, everything’s on pause, watching Wednesday for direction.

Polymarket assigns an 80% probability to a rate hike, and Goldman Sachs has updated its stance—now expecting a hike instead of a hold. The move is already nearly fully priced in by the market.

But here’s the twist: what if Warsh, Trump’s appointee on the Fed, pushes back against a hike just 1.5 months before the midterms? That could shift the narrative on risk assets fast.

Next week promises to be pivotal.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

❗CIA Warnings Before 9/11

Declassified CIA documents reveal repeated alerts to both Clinton and Bush administrations about Al-Qaeda’s plans to strike the U.S. prior to 9/11.

Among the files: a 1998 briefing warning that Al-Qaeda might crash a bomb-filled aircraft into an American city.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

Friendly reminder:

The industry preys on those eager to lose their money.

Do the opposite—and you’ll come out ahead.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

⚠️ JPMorgan Cuts Lending to Situational Awareness

JPMorgan has halted lending to Situational Awareness following massive losses from highly leveraged positions in the AI sector. The fund was compelled to offload most of its public equity holdings linked to Ken Griffin’s Citadel as global shares in semiconductors and AI infrastructure collapsed.

A sharp sell-off in July triggered a margin call. The portfolio plummeted 67% in a single month—erasing nearly all gains after surging 439% by the end of June.

Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher who launched the fund in 2024, informed investors the situation had come “closer to an irreversible loss of capital than is acceptable to us,” while still expressing confidence in the underlying portfolio fundamentals. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Clear Street continue to serve as brokers.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech

❗AI Safety Debate Heats Up

Trump dismisses calls to slow AI progress. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warns advanced AI resisting shutdown is no longer theoretical. He urges shared oversight by democratic nations, not private firms or one government. OpenAI’s Sam Altman confirms no IPO before 2026 due to unresolved safety issues. Elon Musk and Demis Hassabis echo concerns.

Amodei warns self-improving AI and autonomous agents are growing risky. In 6–12 months, coordinated AI swarms could launch massive cyberattacks, causing hundreds of billions in damage. Safeguards: independent audits, unified democratic standards, global agreements—including with China—to set enforceable limits.

✅@futures

Ebisa Tech