Just shedding some perspective on something Vitalik wrote 3 years ago: https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/1479501366192132099/photo/1
As the years have gone by, the gradual phase for new ideas and emerging blockchain use-cases has become noteworthy, but few have proven to show staying power. This has swung the pendulum back in favor of originality and stability, swaying from liberated mass activity to a limited radius of do's and dont's. And now, that same pendulum is ready to swing again. I believe this cycle has more room to reflect the progress of a multi-chain economy, and we will see a good glimpse of its potential before the pendulum swings back in favor of against.
This is typical psychology when it comes to assessing adoption and understanding what the market holds dearly — for better or for worse. As blockchains finalize their scaling plans, there is no going back. Things will only accelerate, but not in the exact path you'd think.
The internet is potentially a foray of what's to come for blockchains. Right now, the hot ball of capital is slowly gravitating from infrastructure into applications — applications that may or may not work at all, but promise to deliver. The key takeaway is that these apps are being built all over the place. This is not anyone's fault in particular; it's naturally a result from the misalignment of user incentives. The blockchain matrix will consist of domains and instead of communicating at the infra level, interaction between application layers is the obvious next step. And this is what Vitalik was warning us about. Vitalik is not implying that one chain is the solution here. He is implying that we must all be aligned in our efforts, otherwise it will lead to a stark downfall.
The further we go into the cycle, voices will get louder. People will go to extreme depths to prove their chain or product is superior than others. Others will try to discredit another's efforts as disparity and bias runs rampant. Conflicts will arise and division will follow, but you must not falter. Stay impartial (to a degree) and stay focused on the flow. The line which you draw between your personal belief of the space and your investing philosophy needs to be explicitly clear. Otherwise you may find it difficult to navigate these markets, even as seasoned cycle traders.
Whether you're a profit maximalist, or a tech purist and pragmatist, or perhaps you sit somewhere in the middle, it is abundantly clear the double-edged sword of opportunity will take us all by surprise.
As the years have gone by, the gradual phase for new ideas and emerging blockchain use-cases has become noteworthy, but few have proven to show staying power. This has swung the pendulum back in favor of originality and stability, swaying from liberated mass activity to a limited radius of do's and dont's. And now, that same pendulum is ready to swing again. I believe this cycle has more room to reflect the progress of a multi-chain economy, and we will see a good glimpse of its potential before the pendulum swings back in favor of against.
This is typical psychology when it comes to assessing adoption and understanding what the market holds dearly — for better or for worse. As blockchains finalize their scaling plans, there is no going back. Things will only accelerate, but not in the exact path you'd think.
The internet is potentially a foray of what's to come for blockchains. Right now, the hot ball of capital is slowly gravitating from infrastructure into applications — applications that may or may not work at all, but promise to deliver. The key takeaway is that these apps are being built all over the place. This is not anyone's fault in particular; it's naturally a result from the misalignment of user incentives. The blockchain matrix will consist of domains and instead of communicating at the infra level, interaction between application layers is the obvious next step. And this is what Vitalik was warning us about. Vitalik is not implying that one chain is the solution here. He is implying that we must all be aligned in our efforts, otherwise it will lead to a stark downfall.
The further we go into the cycle, voices will get louder. People will go to extreme depths to prove their chain or product is superior than others. Others will try to discredit another's efforts as disparity and bias runs rampant. Conflicts will arise and division will follow, but you must not falter. Stay impartial (to a degree) and stay focused on the flow. The line which you draw between your personal belief of the space and your investing philosophy needs to be explicitly clear. Otherwise you may find it difficult to navigate these markets, even as seasoned cycle traders.
Whether you're a profit maximalist, or a tech purist and pragmatist, or perhaps you sit somewhere in the middle, it is abundantly clear the double-edged sword of opportunity will take us all by surprise.
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Tribedotrun looks interesting. I thought this was a scam DM at the time :/
I wish them well on their social experiment.
I wish them well on their social experiment.
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AI should bottom or start to bounce in the next 1-2 weeks. It's time to start paying attention on-chain, rather than on macro.
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TOTAL3/BTC aka "Alt szn" is approaching key pivot area soon. The outlook and general sentiment for alts is down bad, but this chart tells a different story. 7 year range in the making, on the verge of a potential recovery. For minor reference, XRP has broken its 7 year bull flag and LTC is expected to follow soon.
MAs have not been this compressed since early 2021. Are you a bulliever?
MAs have not been this compressed since early 2021. Are you a bulliever?
Market consensus for QT to decelerate around June, based on current US Federal Reserve estimates. Semi-good news as markets are forward thinking. Another pre-emptive signal will likely come from China in early March when they release their plans for monetary policy, growth and stimulus and combatting Trump tariffs.
Expectation is priced for the worst, but I believe it will not be as bad, alleviating market tension to a decent degree. If these things do not contribute to a better market for crypto for the next few months, then I don't know what will honestly...
Expectation is priced for the worst, but I believe it will not be as bad, alleviating market tension to a decent degree. If these things do not contribute to a better market for crypto for the next few months, then I don't know what will honestly...
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Personally don't think QE will happen this cycle, but gradual reduction of QT is enough.
I had an absence due to priorities in my own personal life, and since then I took a long break away from crypto and away from charts.
I am not fully caught up, but realized fears lately are quite overblown — yet they are well justified. Bearish flashing trading indicators and Bitcoin Treasury company blowups aside, bottoms take time to form. Right now the biggest factor in this drop is deleveraging, not just in crypto but elsewhere too. It seems like people aren't paying attention to matters globally. US indices are crumbling due to Japan's projected stimulus (Japan holds a lot of US treasury bonds that need to be paid) and the intervention doesn't happen until next month. FED Rate cuts are being priced as a coin toss for next month. And so much more.
BTC could see $75-80k in a very quick amount of time if we don't see any developing leads, which is essentially the starting point of 2025.
December is probably the month that decides it all. I still think markets will go up in 2026, but for now keep yourself safe and away from hassle. My last few words. Good luck and good bye.
I am not fully caught up, but realized fears lately are quite overblown — yet they are well justified. Bearish flashing trading indicators and Bitcoin Treasury company blowups aside, bottoms take time to form. Right now the biggest factor in this drop is deleveraging, not just in crypto but elsewhere too. It seems like people aren't paying attention to matters globally. US indices are crumbling due to Japan's projected stimulus (Japan holds a lot of US treasury bonds that need to be paid) and the intervention doesn't happen until next month. FED Rate cuts are being priced as a coin toss for next month. And so much more.
BTC could see $75-80k in a very quick amount of time if we don't see any developing leads, which is essentially the starting point of 2025.
December is probably the month that decides it all. I still think markets will go up in 2026, but for now keep yourself safe and away from hassle. My last few words. Good luck and good bye.
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