Thinking Out Loud pinned «Welcome to 2025, the year that sets the stage for all things crypto (I hope!) I wish I could sugarcoat that the remaining duration of this crypto cycle will be an absolute breeze. Unfortunately, it's going to be the opposite of that 😬. With sensitive macro…»
Thinking Out Loud
The next Bitcoin dump is going to push BTC.D even lower IMO.
Watching BTC.D as we get the last bit of panic selling
If Trump's executive orders are very good for crypto, it will invalidate everyone's trading plans, so stay alert.
I sense a seismic disturbance for all things crypto.
These next few months are going to be legendary.
Green light.
These next few months are going to be legendary.
Green light.
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Just shedding some perspective on something Vitalik wrote 3 years ago: https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/1479501366192132099/photo/1
As the years have gone by, the gradual phase for new ideas and emerging blockchain use-cases has become noteworthy, but few have proven to show staying power. This has swung the pendulum back in favor of originality and stability, swaying from liberated mass activity to a limited radius of do's and dont's. And now, that same pendulum is ready to swing again. I believe this cycle has more room to reflect the progress of a multi-chain economy, and we will see a good glimpse of its potential before the pendulum swings back in favor of against.
This is typical psychology when it comes to assessing adoption and understanding what the market holds dearly — for better or for worse. As blockchains finalize their scaling plans, there is no going back. Things will only accelerate, but not in the exact path you'd think.
The internet is potentially a foray of what's to come for blockchains. Right now, the hot ball of capital is slowly gravitating from infrastructure into applications — applications that may or may not work at all, but promise to deliver. The key takeaway is that these apps are being built all over the place. This is not anyone's fault in particular; it's naturally a result from the misalignment of user incentives. The blockchain matrix will consist of domains and instead of communicating at the infra level, interaction between application layers is the obvious next step. And this is what Vitalik was warning us about. Vitalik is not implying that one chain is the solution here. He is implying that we must all be aligned in our efforts, otherwise it will lead to a stark downfall.
The further we go into the cycle, voices will get louder. People will go to extreme depths to prove their chain or product is superior than others. Others will try to discredit another's efforts as disparity and bias runs rampant. Conflicts will arise and division will follow, but you must not falter. Stay impartial (to a degree) and stay focused on the flow. The line which you draw between your personal belief of the space and your investing philosophy needs to be explicitly clear. Otherwise you may find it difficult to navigate these markets, even as seasoned cycle traders.
Whether you're a profit maximalist, or a tech purist and pragmatist, or perhaps you sit somewhere in the middle, it is abundantly clear the double-edged sword of opportunity will take us all by surprise.
As the years have gone by, the gradual phase for new ideas and emerging blockchain use-cases has become noteworthy, but few have proven to show staying power. This has swung the pendulum back in favor of originality and stability, swaying from liberated mass activity to a limited radius of do's and dont's. And now, that same pendulum is ready to swing again. I believe this cycle has more room to reflect the progress of a multi-chain economy, and we will see a good glimpse of its potential before the pendulum swings back in favor of against.
This is typical psychology when it comes to assessing adoption and understanding what the market holds dearly — for better or for worse. As blockchains finalize their scaling plans, there is no going back. Things will only accelerate, but not in the exact path you'd think.
The internet is potentially a foray of what's to come for blockchains. Right now, the hot ball of capital is slowly gravitating from infrastructure into applications — applications that may or may not work at all, but promise to deliver. The key takeaway is that these apps are being built all over the place. This is not anyone's fault in particular; it's naturally a result from the misalignment of user incentives. The blockchain matrix will consist of domains and instead of communicating at the infra level, interaction between application layers is the obvious next step. And this is what Vitalik was warning us about. Vitalik is not implying that one chain is the solution here. He is implying that we must all be aligned in our efforts, otherwise it will lead to a stark downfall.
The further we go into the cycle, voices will get louder. People will go to extreme depths to prove their chain or product is superior than others. Others will try to discredit another's efforts as disparity and bias runs rampant. Conflicts will arise and division will follow, but you must not falter. Stay impartial (to a degree) and stay focused on the flow. The line which you draw between your personal belief of the space and your investing philosophy needs to be explicitly clear. Otherwise you may find it difficult to navigate these markets, even as seasoned cycle traders.
Whether you're a profit maximalist, or a tech purist and pragmatist, or perhaps you sit somewhere in the middle, it is abundantly clear the double-edged sword of opportunity will take us all by surprise.
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Tribedotrun looks interesting. I thought this was a scam DM at the time :/
I wish them well on their social experiment.
I wish them well on their social experiment.
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AI should bottom or start to bounce in the next 1-2 weeks. It's time to start paying attention on-chain, rather than on macro.
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TOTAL3/BTC aka "Alt szn" is approaching key pivot area soon. The outlook and general sentiment for alts is down bad, but this chart tells a different story. 7 year range in the making, on the verge of a potential recovery. For minor reference, XRP has broken its 7 year bull flag and LTC is expected to follow soon.
MAs have not been this compressed since early 2021. Are you a bulliever?
MAs have not been this compressed since early 2021. Are you a bulliever?
Market consensus for QT to decelerate around June, based on current US Federal Reserve estimates. Semi-good news as markets are forward thinking. Another pre-emptive signal will likely come from China in early March when they release their plans for monetary policy, growth and stimulus and combatting Trump tariffs.
Expectation is priced for the worst, but I believe it will not be as bad, alleviating market tension to a decent degree. If these things do not contribute to a better market for crypto for the next few months, then I don't know what will honestly...
Expectation is priced for the worst, but I believe it will not be as bad, alleviating market tension to a decent degree. If these things do not contribute to a better market for crypto for the next few months, then I don't know what will honestly...
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Personally don't think QE will happen this cycle, but gradual reduction of QT is enough.