MONTHLY / WEEKLY TIMEFRAME — XAUUSD UPDATE

Starting from the higher timeframes, Gold has continued to respect the bullish outlook we discussed at the beginning of the month.
Price ended up breaking above the previous monthly highs around 4200 and continued pushing higher. We're now getting much closer to our overall bullish target around 4540

But there's something VERY important I don't want you guys to forget: 👇
ALWAYS LOOK LEFT 👈🏼

Before this bullish expansion, Gold had a very aggressive bearish move. That move left behind unfilled bearish imbalances, and those areas are extremely important to me because they can act as both future targets AND AOIs

Here's how I'm approaching them:
If Gold continues higher into one of these HTF bearish imbalances, begins filling it, then shows a strong rejection and starts trading back below it, I'm NOT going to immediately assume Gold is completely bearish.
Instead, I'll look for a retracement into one of our bullish zones below.
If that bullish zone holds + structure confirms buyers are still present → that could give us another opportunity to BUY with the current bullish momentum and potentially continue toward the next HTF target

BUT THIS IS WHERE IT GETS IMPORTANT…
If price rejects the bearish imbalance AND then comes down and our bullish zones FAIL to hold, with structure beginning to break lower… Now the story changes. That would tell us buyers are losing control and could open the door for bearish momentum to return and a potentially much deeper correction

So We're not predicting:
❌ “Gold MUST sell here.”
❌ “Gold MUST buy here.”
We're building the roadmap BEFORE price gets there 👇

Bearish imbalance → watch the reaction → bullish AOI → watch whether buyers defend → trade the confirmation

That's how I'm planning to approach these higher-timeframe bearish zones. And I already have the specific MONTHLY/WEEKLY zones marked out that I'm going to share with you guys next so you know exactly what areas I'll be watching over the coming days/weeks. Now let's move into the DAILY timeframe and start putting the pieces together

DAILY / H4 / H1 OUTLOOK

Now bringing it down to the Daily, H4 & H1, with last week's bullish momentum price has built a solid support foundation around 4315–4320 that's been holding all week. If you look left, this is also previous data/structure where we've seen price react before

Friday was another good example early in the session price tapped into 4320 support, rejected, reclaimed back above and the Daily candle ended up closing bullish. Now what I really want you guys to notice is this…

If price has been pushing bullish, why are we continuously failing to break past 4440? 👀

Look left on the Daily TF. With this bullish push, price has now tapped into a HTF bearish imbalance that was left from the previous bearish move. That imbalance has been filled, and you can slowly see the bullish volume dying off as we trade inside this area.
Candles are getting weaker, we're seeing wick rejections from the highs, and throughout the week the Daily candles have struggled to close and hold above this area

This DOESN'T mean Gold is automatically going to sell. It simply gives us an understanding of WHY buyers are struggling around here and why this is something we need to keep our eyes on

Other than that, price is STILL respecting 4315–4320 support, so buyers are still present

Here's my plan to continue looking for buys these upcoming days 👇🏼
On Friday, after rejecting 4320, the H4 created a solid bullish FVG around 4350–4370 that price hasn't properly pulled back and retested yet. If we pull back into 4370/4350, reject, and start building strong bullish PA → I'll look for the reclaim and continuation higher. If Gold doesn't give us that pullback and instead pushes above 4395–4400, that's another area I'm interested in — BUT I want to see an H1/30M candle closure above, followed by lower TF bullish PA/structure confirming buyers are actually holding above

From there our main target is 4440 possibly higher if buyers can finally break, close and HOLD above it.

So going into this week, I'm not chasing anything. We have our zones. We have our confirmation. Now we wait for price to come to us

NOWWWW FOR SELLS 👀

We're NOT going to force sells just because price is sitting inside a HTF bearish area. We need to actually see bearish structure develop first

So what am I looking for?
If price continues failing to break/hold above 4395–4400, then comes back down and fails to respect our intraday bullish FVG around 4370–4350, that's when I'll start paying attention

If price inverses the FVG, closes below the zone and starts developing bearish PA on the lower timeframes, we can then look for the B/R around the 4350s for a possible sell setup. First target: 4320 support

Now 4320 is IMPORTANT. I'm not automatically selling through it because we've already seen buyers defend this area multiple times. Butttt if 4320 fails to hold, price breaks below and bearish PA continues developing, then we can continue looking for sells lower

And if you look underneath current price, there's actually a lot of bullish imbalance that hasn't been filled yet. Those areas can become our next targets + zones to watch for a reaction 👀

So the sell plan is simple:
4395–4400 fails → 4370–4350 FVG fails/inverses → bearish PA develops → B/R → look for sells toward 4320

Then we let 4320 tell us what happens next.
No predicting. No forcing a bearish bias. We wait for price to CONFIRM the shift first