Forwarded from HanSolarTG defi, crypto, options
I'm baaaack guysss
[Perps Update]
Equity has been relatively stable.
Went into the conference market-neutral with reduced leverage, but my HYPE bids got filled during the recent dip, so I'm leaning long again.
Planning to keep my L:S ratio between 2:1 and 3:1, with more resting bids all the way down to $77.
[Market View]
Still cautious here. A few things I'm watching:
◾️ Alt OI remains elevated
Thursday-Friday's flush felt relatively mild imo. Not quite the kind of washout I'd want to see before getting aggressively long.
BTC's share of total OI seems to have peaked, but alt OI remains elevated. Doesn't feel like we've flushed out enough leverage yet.
◾️ Alt rotations are getting increasingly dispersed
ZEC > NEAR > ZRO > STRK > W... ???
Feels like crypto-native capital is rotating further out on the risk curve, with traders increasingly reaching for old dino coins.
Not exactly the kind of broad-based strength that gives me confidence in the market.
◾️ Midterm rally?
TradFi could very well rally into the US midterms, especially if the historical midterm playbook holds.
Interestingly, BTC also saw sharp corrections around the last two midterm elections. Not necessarily predictive, but worth keeping in mind.
◾️ Options markets suggest something is brewing
IV remains near historical lows. When prolonged vol compression finally breaks, it can set the stage for a sustained, multi-week/month trend.
Still early to call direction, but 25-delta put-call skews seem to be tilting bearish.
Low vol, elevated alt OI, and increasingly speculative rotations. Not quite the setup where I want to be max long.
[PRL]
Otherwise, got a little PRL-pilled at the conference and made my first spot purchase in a long time.
Mcap: $469M
FDV: $2.88B
The thesis isn't particularly sophisticated.
It's an AI coin that's caught the attention of the SF cabal and a handful of crypto funds.
The more interesting part is the market structure.
PRL is technically harder for exchanges to integrate, which has created a natural bottleneck for listings and potentially some pent-up demand.
This creates an interesting setup where demand could be accumulating faster than new distribution channels are opening up.
Of course, plenty of existing holders will likely sell into a listing, so it's far from a one-way trade.
But after talking to people at the conference, I got the impression that the team is open to exchange listings.
Essentially a bet that new distribution unlocks demand faster than existing holders sell into it.
And the chart looks pretty nice too.
[Perps Update]
Equity has been relatively stable.
Went into the conference market-neutral with reduced leverage, but my HYPE bids got filled during the recent dip, so I'm leaning long again.
Planning to keep my L:S ratio between 2:1 and 3:1, with more resting bids all the way down to $77.
[Market View]
Still cautious here. A few things I'm watching:
◾️ Alt OI remains elevated
Thursday-Friday's flush felt relatively mild imo. Not quite the kind of washout I'd want to see before getting aggressively long.
BTC's share of total OI seems to have peaked, but alt OI remains elevated. Doesn't feel like we've flushed out enough leverage yet.
◾️ Alt rotations are getting increasingly dispersed
ZEC > NEAR > ZRO > STRK > W... ???
Feels like crypto-native capital is rotating further out on the risk curve, with traders increasingly reaching for old dino coins.
Not exactly the kind of broad-based strength that gives me confidence in the market.
◾️ Midterm rally?
TradFi could very well rally into the US midterms, especially if the historical midterm playbook holds.
Interestingly, BTC also saw sharp corrections around the last two midterm elections. Not necessarily predictive, but worth keeping in mind.
◾️ Options markets suggest something is brewing
IV remains near historical lows. When prolonged vol compression finally breaks, it can set the stage for a sustained, multi-week/month trend.
Still early to call direction, but 25-delta put-call skews seem to be tilting bearish.
Low vol, elevated alt OI, and increasingly speculative rotations. Not quite the setup where I want to be max long.
[PRL]
Otherwise, got a little PRL-pilled at the conference and made my first spot purchase in a long time.
Mcap: $469M
FDV: $2.88B
The thesis isn't particularly sophisticated.
It's an AI coin that's caught the attention of the SF cabal and a handful of crypto funds.
The more interesting part is the market structure.
PRL is technically harder for exchanges to integrate, which has created a natural bottleneck for listings and potentially some pent-up demand.
This creates an interesting setup where demand could be accumulating faster than new distribution channels are opening up.
Of course, plenty of existing holders will likely sell into a listing, so it's far from a one-way trade.
But after talking to people at the conference, I got the impression that the team is open to exchange listings.
Essentially a bet that new distribution unlocks demand faster than existing holders sell into it.
And the chart looks pretty nice too.
❤4
에테나가 현물가 대비 약 60% 할인된 가격에 ENA를 OTC로 매각했다는 추정.
최근 시장이 좋아지면서 재단 입장에서 현금 흐름은 창출해야 하고 바로 Cex에 매도하면 충격이 있으니 이런 OTC 거래가 간간히 또 발생할듯?
글에 따르면, 에테나 측과 고래 지갑 0x8e2는 소량의 ENA를 주고받으며 테스트 거래를 진행.
이후 구매자가 스테이블코인 $2m 전송, 에테나 측이 약 2,260만 $ENA 전송.
받은 ENA는 당시 현물가 $0.22 기준 약 $502만 규모로, 추정 매입 단가는 약 $0.09.
다만 지갑 간 자금 흐름을 바탕으로 한 해석이며, 실제 OTC 매각 여부와 조건은 확인되지 않음.
최근 시장이 좋아지면서 재단 입장에서 현금 흐름은 창출해야 하고 바로 Cex에 매도하면 충격이 있으니 이런 OTC 거래가 간간히 또 발생할듯?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTpF1_Z8U8g
전업 투자하시는 분이고 비트코인 투자한다길래
보다보니 테더 부사장과 식사하는 사이 ㅋㅋ
띠용해버림. 신기하네요.
전업 투자하시는 분이고 비트코인 투자한다길래
보다보니 테더 부사장과 식사하는 사이 ㅋㅋ
띠용해버림. 신기하네요.
❤4
https://token2049.com/singapore/nexus-startup-competition-top-50
Dragonfly, Malestrom, Multicoin에서 지원하는
크립토 스타트업 대회 Top 50 발표.
선정작이 너무 많아서 다 설명하긴 어렵고,
Payment, RWA 토큰화, AI x Crypto Finance, Prediction Market, Trading Platform 정도 카테고리 선정됨.
이 중 10개가 우승작이고 드플, 멀티코인한테 피칭할 수 있다고 하니 추가 투자 받는 곳도 몇 곳 있을듯.
Dragonfly, Malestrom, Multicoin에서 지원하는
크립토 스타트업 대회 Top 50 발표.
선정작이 너무 많아서 다 설명하긴 어렵고,
Payment, RWA 토큰화, AI x Crypto Finance, Prediction Market, Trading Platform 정도 카테고리 선정됨.
이 중 10개가 우승작이고 드플, 멀티코인한테 피칭할 수 있다고 하니 추가 투자 받는 곳도 몇 곳 있을듯.
Forwarded from 유트로의 크립토 서바이벌