I'm baaaack guysss

[Perps Update]

Equity has been relatively stable.

Went into the conference market-neutral with reduced leverage, but my HYPE bids got filled during the recent dip, so I'm leaning long again.

Planning to keep my L:S ratio between 2:1 and 3:1, with more resting bids all the way down to $77.

[Market View]

Still cautious here. A few things I'm watching:

◾️ Alt OI remains elevated

Thursday-Friday's flush felt relatively mild imo. Not quite the kind of washout I'd want to see before getting aggressively long.

BTC's share of total OI seems to have peaked, but alt OI remains elevated. Doesn't feel like we've flushed out enough leverage yet.

◾️ Alt rotations are getting increasingly dispersed

ZEC > NEAR > ZRO > STRK > W... ???

Feels like crypto-native capital is rotating further out on the risk curve, with traders increasingly reaching for old dino coins.

Not exactly the kind of broad-based strength that gives me confidence in the market.

◾️ Midterm rally?

TradFi could very well rally into the US midterms, especially if the historical midterm playbook holds.

Interestingly, BTC also saw sharp corrections around the last two midterm elections. Not necessarily predictive, but worth keeping in mind.

◾️ Options markets suggest something is brewing

IV remains near historical lows. When prolonged vol compression finally breaks, it can set the stage for a sustained, multi-week/month trend.

Still early to call direction, but 25-delta put-call skews seem to be tilting bearish.

Low vol, elevated alt OI, and increasingly speculative rotations. Not quite the setup where I want to be max long.

[PRL]

Otherwise, got a little PRL-pilled at the conference and made my first spot purchase in a long time.

Mcap: $469M
FDV: $2.88B

The thesis isn't particularly sophisticated.

It's an AI coin that's caught the attention of the SF cabal and a handful of crypto funds.

The more interesting part is the market structure.

PRL is technically harder for exchanges to integrate, which has created a natural bottleneck for listings and potentially some pent-up demand.

This creates an interesting setup where demand could be accumulating faster than new distribution channels are opening up.

Of course, plenty of existing holders will likely sell into a listing, so it's far from a one-way trade.

But after talking to people at the conference, I got the impression that the team is open to exchange listings.

Essentially a bet that new distribution unlocks demand faster than existing holders sell into it.

And the chart looks pretty nice too.