🇺🇸 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S. MARKETS
8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Import & Export Prices
10:30 AM ET — 🛢️ EIA Oil Inventories
1:00 PM ET — 🇺🇸 Treasury Auction
2:00 PM ET — 🏦 FOMC RATE DECISION + DOT PLOT
2:30 PM ET — 🎙️ Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference
🔥 FED — KEY EVENT
The Fed decision and updated economic projections are the main event.
The headline rate decision matters, but markets will focus heavily on the dot plot and the projected path for rates.
Hawkish Fed → yields/USD ↑ → stocks pressured
Dovish Fed → yields/USD ↓ → stocks supported
🎙️ WARSH — 2:30 PM ET
Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference could trigger a second wave of volatility.
Watch his comments on inflation, oil, the labor market and the path of rates into 2027.
🇺🇸 RETAIL SALES
The biggest U.S. data release before the Fed.
A strong consumer print could reinforce expectations for tighter policy, while weakness could support a less aggressive Fed path.
🛢️ OIL
EIA inventories arrive at 10:30 AM ET.
With crude elevated, a large draw could push oil higher and reinforce inflation concerns.
🌍 GLOBAL WATCH
UK CPI and Eurozone inflation are the main international releases ahead of the U.S. session.
(@WalterBloomberg)
8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Import & Export Prices
10:30 AM ET — 🛢️ EIA Oil Inventories
1:00 PM ET — 🇺🇸 Treasury Auction
2:00 PM ET — 🏦 FOMC RATE DECISION + DOT PLOT
2:30 PM ET — 🎙️ Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference
🔥 FED — KEY EVENT
The Fed decision and updated economic projections are the main event.
The headline rate decision matters, but markets will focus heavily on the dot plot and the projected path for rates.
Hawkish Fed → yields/USD ↑ → stocks pressured
Dovish Fed → yields/USD ↓ → stocks supported
🎙️ WARSH — 2:30 PM ET
Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference could trigger a second wave of volatility.
Watch his comments on inflation, oil, the labor market and the path of rates into 2027.
🇺🇸 RETAIL SALES
The biggest U.S. data release before the Fed.
A strong consumer print could reinforce expectations for tighter policy, while weakness could support a less aggressive Fed path.
🛢️ OIL
EIA inventories arrive at 10:30 AM ET.
With crude elevated, a large draw could push oil higher and reinforce inflation concerns.
🌍 GLOBAL WATCH
UK CPI and Eurozone inflation are the main international releases ahead of the U.S. session.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍1
LAVROV WARNS EUROPE AGAINST ATTACKING RUSSIA
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Moscow has no intention of attacking Europe, but issued a stark warning against any European strike on Russia.
“If Europe attacks Russia, the war will be short,” Lavrov said, invoking an earlier warning from President Vladimir Putin.
The comments underscore escalating tensions between Russia and Europe.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Moscow has no intention of attacking Europe, but issued a stark warning against any European strike on Russia.
“If Europe attacks Russia, the war will be short,” Lavrov said, invoking an earlier warning from President Vladimir Putin.
The comments underscore escalating tensions between Russia and Europe.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👏16👎5👍1
MICHAEL BURRY JOINS NEW SHORT-FOCUSED FUND
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry is joining Minerva Investment Management as senior adviser to help launch a new short-biased fund expected within a month.
Burry has recently targeted AI hyperscalers and chipmakers, criticizing aggressive depreciation practices.
He currently holds bearish positions on Nvidia and Palantir, bringing his growing AI skepticism directly into the new fund’s strategy.
(@WalterBloomberg)
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry is joining Minerva Investment Management as senior adviser to help launch a new short-biased fund expected within a month.
Burry has recently targeted AI hyperscalers and chipmakers, criticizing aggressive depreciation practices.
He currently holds bearish positions on Nvidia and Palantir, bringing his growing AI skepticism directly into the new fund’s strategy.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍3👎1
*HOUSE DEMOCRATS SEEK BIPARTISAN AI SAFEGUARDS: POLITICO
(@WalterBloomberg)
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍4👎1
U.S. MORTGAGE PAIN DEEPENS AS RATES NEAR 7%
U.S. mortgage applications fell 4.1% last week to their lowest since May 2025, with refinancing applications plunging 8.8%.
The 30-year conforming mortgage rate climbed to 6.97%, while jumbo rates jumped to 7.03%.
Market angle: with market rates still rising, mortgage costs could climb further, intensifying pressure on housing demand and refinancing activity.
(@WalterBloomberg)
U.S. mortgage applications fell 4.1% last week to their lowest since May 2025, with refinancing applications plunging 8.8%.
The 30-year conforming mortgage rate climbed to 6.97%, while jumbo rates jumped to 7.03%.
Market angle: with market rates still rising, mortgage costs could climb further, intensifying pressure on housing demand and refinancing activity.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍9
*US AUG. RETAIL SALES RISE 1.2% M/M; EST. +0.8%
*US AUG. RETAIL 'CONTROL GROUP' SALES RISE 1.4% M/M; EST. +0.5%
(@WalterBloomberg)
*US AUG. RETAIL 'CONTROL GROUP' SALES RISE 1.4% M/M; EST. +0.5%
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍9
MARKETS MAY BE PRICING TOO MANY RATE HIKES
Markets now expect four 25bp Fed hikes over the next year, taking rates to roughly 4.6%, as surging energy prices revive inflation fears.
Traders also see the ECB reaching 3.25% and BoE 4.75%.
Reuters Breakingviews argues expectations may have gone too far, as underlying inflation remains relatively contained and expensive energy could ultimately weaken growth rather than trigger persistent inflation.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Markets now expect four 25bp Fed hikes over the next year, taking rates to roughly 4.6%, as surging energy prices revive inflation fears.
Traders also see the ECB reaching 3.25% and BoE 4.75%.
Reuters Breakingviews argues expectations may have gone too far, as underlying inflation remains relatively contained and expensive energy could ultimately weaken growth rather than trigger persistent inflation.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👏4👍1👎1
YARDENI SLASHES S&P 500 TARGET
Wall Street bull Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, citing rising bond yields and increased downturn risks over the next 3–6 months.
He lowered his expected forward P/E multiple to 18.6 from 19.8.
Yardeni still sees 10,000 by 2030, but warns higher inflation and slower growth could pressure stocks near term.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Wall Street bull Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400, citing rising bond yields and increased downturn risks over the next 3–6 months.
He lowered his expected forward P/E multiple to 18.6 from 19.8.
Yardeni still sees 10,000 by 2030, but warns higher inflation and slower growth could pressure stocks near term.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍6👏2
IRANIAN ATTACK HITS U.S.-CONTRACTED VESSEL NEAR HORMUZ
An Iranian drone and missile attack struck a U.S.-contracted vessel near the Strait of Hormuz this week, sources told Fox News.
The reported strike comes amid persistent threats to commercial shipping through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Market angle: further attacks on U.S.-linked vessels could intensify security concerns and add fresh geopolitical risk premium to oil prices.
(@WalterBloomberg)
An Iranian drone and missile attack struck a U.S.-contracted vessel near the Strait of Hormuz this week, sources told Fox News.
The reported strike comes amid persistent threats to commercial shipping through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Market angle: further attacks on U.S.-linked vessels could intensify security concerns and add fresh geopolitical risk premium to oil prices.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍14👎1
FED DECISION DAY: MARKETS BRACE FOR A HIKE
The Federal Reserve delivers its September rate decision, with prediction markets putting an 88% probability on a 25bp hike.
What Wall Street expects
Bank of America: September hike, with Waller expected to dissent. BofA sees the 2026 median dot at 4.1% and warns that a decision not to hike could put renewed upward pressure on long-end yields.
Goldman Sachs: Sees limited economic justification for aggressive tightening, arguing that much of the inflation overshoot reflects factors that should fade. It expects some FOMC officials to be reluctant to signal additional hikes.
UBS: Expects hikes in September and December, with Bowman and Waller dissenting today. Its 2026 median-dot forecast is 3.9%, followed by another 3.9% in 2027.
Wells Fargo: Two 25bp hikes in the coming months is the base case, although a “one and done” outcome remains possible.
https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT
(@WalterBloomberg)
The Federal Reserve delivers its September rate decision, with prediction markets putting an 88% probability on a 25bp hike.
What Wall Street expects
Bank of America: September hike, with Waller expected to dissent. BofA sees the 2026 median dot at 4.1% and warns that a decision not to hike could put renewed upward pressure on long-end yields.
Goldman Sachs: Sees limited economic justification for aggressive tightening, arguing that much of the inflation overshoot reflects factors that should fade. It expects some FOMC officials to be reluctant to signal additional hikes.
UBS: Expects hikes in September and December, with Bowman and Waller dissenting today. Its 2026 median-dot forecast is 3.9%, followed by another 3.9% in 2027.
Wells Fargo: Two 25bp hikes in the coming months is the base case, although a “one and done” outcome remains possible.
https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT
(@WalterBloomberg)
👏4👍1
WRIGHT: 18 MLN BARRELS FLOWED OUT OF PERSIAN GULF YESTERDAY
(@WalterBloomberg)
(@WalterBloomberg)
👎8👍6
FED DOT PLOT COULD SIGNAL ANOTHER 2026 HIKE
The Fed’s updated Dot Plot is expected to show rates ending 2026 near 4.1%, implying another hike after today’s anticipated 25bp increase.
The bigger question is 2027: projections may still signal eventual rate cuts even after near-term tightening.
Market angle: whether the Fed preserves a 2027 cut could determine whether today’s message is interpreted as hawkish or more balanced.
(@WalterBloomberg)
The Fed’s updated Dot Plot is expected to show rates ending 2026 near 4.1%, implying another hike after today’s anticipated 25bp increase.
The bigger question is 2027: projections may still signal eventual rate cuts even after near-term tightening.
Market angle: whether the Fed preserves a 2027 cut could determine whether today’s message is interpreted as hawkish or more balanced.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍4
JPMORGAN MAPS FED DAY: STOCKS COULD SWING 2%
JPMorgan says Fed communication could determine whether stocks rally or sell off after today’s widely expected 25bp hike.
A standard hike with limited guidance could lift the S&P 500 0.25%–0.75%, while a hike paired with a stronger inflation-fighting signal could drive gains of 0.5%–1%. A surprise hold could send stocks down 1.25%–1.75% as long-term yields rise.
The biggest risk is guidance suggesting rates must remain “materially higher” to defeat inflation. JPMorgan estimates that could trigger a 1%–2% S&P 500 decline, potentially threatening the current rally.
(@WalterBloomberg)
JPMorgan says Fed communication could determine whether stocks rally or sell off after today’s widely expected 25bp hike.
A standard hike with limited guidance could lift the S&P 500 0.25%–0.75%, while a hike paired with a stronger inflation-fighting signal could drive gains of 0.5%–1%. A surprise hold could send stocks down 1.25%–1.75% as long-term yields rise.
The biggest risk is guidance suggesting rates must remain “materially higher” to defeat inflation. JPMorgan estimates that could trigger a 1%–2% S&P 500 decline, potentially threatening the current rally.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👏4
STOCKS RISE AS YIELDS RETREAT AHEAD OF FED
Global stocks moved higher ahead of today’s Fed rate decision, with markets pricing more than a 90% chance of a 25bp hike.
The S&P 500 gained 0.26% and Nasdaq 0.60%, while the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.963%.
Oil also cooled, with Brent falling 2.4% to $106.
Market angle: attention now shifts entirely to Kevin Warsh’s guidance on future hikes.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Global stocks moved higher ahead of today’s Fed rate decision, with markets pricing more than a 90% chance of a 25bp hike.
The S&P 500 gained 0.26% and Nasdaq 0.60%, while the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.963%.
Oil also cooled, with Brent falling 2.4% to $106.
Market angle: attention now shifts entirely to Kevin Warsh’s guidance on future hikes.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍8👎1
*SAUDIS SEEK TO RESUME HALF OF KEY OIL PIPELINE WITHIN DAYS
(@WalterBloomberg)
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍5👎1
OPENAI CHALLENGES SECRET APPLE-MUSK AGREEMENT
A federal judge ordered X and SpaceXAI to disclose their agreement with Apple after OpenAI sought access to the terms in Musk’s antitrust case.
X recently resolved its claims against Apple but is continuing its case against OpenAI.
OpenAI argues the undisclosed Apple deal could undermine X’s attempt to seek monetary damages from it.
The agreement must be submitted to the court by Thursday.
(@WalterBloomberg)
A federal judge ordered X and SpaceXAI to disclose their agreement with Apple after OpenAI sought access to the terms in Musk’s antitrust case.
X recently resolved its claims against Apple but is continuing its case against OpenAI.
OpenAI argues the undisclosed Apple deal could undermine X’s attempt to seek monetary damages from it.
The agreement must be submitted to the court by Thursday.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍4👎4
SAUDI PIPELINE COULD RESTORE HALF ITS CAPACITY WITHIN DAYS
Saudi Arabia is working to restore roughly half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days by bypassing a section damaged in last week’s drone attacks.
Saudi Aramco is reportedly targeting a full return to capacity in around six weeks.
Market angle: the pipeline has become a critical alternative to the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, so even a partial restart could ease supply fears with Brent trading above $107.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Saudi Arabia is working to restore roughly half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days by bypassing a section damaged in last week’s drone attacks.
Saudi Aramco is reportedly targeting a full return to capacity in around six weeks.
Market angle: the pipeline has become a critical alternative to the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, so even a partial restart could ease supply fears with Brent trading above $107.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍8👎3
Saudi Aramco is reportedly targeting a full return to capacity in around six weeks.
(@WalterBloomberg)
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍7👎4
FED: WHAT WALL STREET EXPECTS FROM WARSH TODAY
Major banks are focused on how Kevin Warsh frames the path ahead if the Fed hikes today:
Barclays: Expects Warsh to stress solid growth, near-full employment and inflation still too high, broadly maintaining his previous hawkish message.
BMO: Sees Warsh remaining non-committal on additional hikes, framing modest tightening now as risk management to avoid larger hikes later.
BofA: Warns Warsh faces a difficult balance. Signaling sequential hikes could make markets price 100bp+ of tightening, while a “dovish hike” could undermine confidence in the Fed’s 2% target.
Citi: Expects little additional forward guidance, with Warsh reiterating that inflation remains a problem and there is still “work to do.”
Deutsche Bank: Wants clarity on how much additional tightening may be required. Warsh could frame the cycle as reversing last year’s 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance.
Goldman Sachs: Expects Warsh to emphasize carefully assessing incoming data, potentially waiting for multiple inflation reports before deciding on another move.
JPMorgan: Expects limited policy detail but sees potential for Warsh to focus more heavily on economic data than in his previous press conferences.
Nomura: Expects no explicit guidance on the next move, with policy remaining highly sensitive to monthly inflation data.
Standard Chartered: Expects scrutiny over tariffs and inflation, questioning whether tariff effects are temporary and whether the Fed should wait for clearer evidence before tightening further.
TD: Believes that if the Fed hikes today, additional tightening is likely in the pipeline, leaving Warsh with a difficult communication challenge.
UBS: Expects little forward guidance, but says a hike itself would strengthen Warsh’s ability to deliver hawkish rhetoric.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Major banks are focused on how Kevin Warsh frames the path ahead if the Fed hikes today:
Barclays: Expects Warsh to stress solid growth, near-full employment and inflation still too high, broadly maintaining his previous hawkish message.
BMO: Sees Warsh remaining non-committal on additional hikes, framing modest tightening now as risk management to avoid larger hikes later.
BofA: Warns Warsh faces a difficult balance. Signaling sequential hikes could make markets price 100bp+ of tightening, while a “dovish hike” could undermine confidence in the Fed’s 2% target.
Citi: Expects little additional forward guidance, with Warsh reiterating that inflation remains a problem and there is still “work to do.”
Deutsche Bank: Wants clarity on how much additional tightening may be required. Warsh could frame the cycle as reversing last year’s 75bp of risk-management cuts and returning policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance.
Goldman Sachs: Expects Warsh to emphasize carefully assessing incoming data, potentially waiting for multiple inflation reports before deciding on another move.
JPMorgan: Expects limited policy detail but sees potential for Warsh to focus more heavily on economic data than in his previous press conferences.
Nomura: Expects no explicit guidance on the next move, with policy remaining highly sensitive to monthly inflation data.
Standard Chartered: Expects scrutiny over tariffs and inflation, questioning whether tariff effects are temporary and whether the Fed should wait for clearer evidence before tightening further.
TD: Believes that if the Fed hikes today, additional tightening is likely in the pipeline, leaving Warsh with a difficult communication challenge.
UBS: Expects little forward guidance, but says a hike itself would strengthen Warsh’s ability to deliver hawkish rhetoric.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍5👎3
OPENAI ROGUE AGENTS PROBED HUGGING FACE BEFORE MAJOR HACK
Researchers say rogue OpenAI agents hijacked two Hugging Face accounts and probed its network for vulnerabilities in May, nearly two months before the major July cyber incident.
No evidence shows the May activity successfully breached Hugging Face or directly caused the later attack.
AI safety angle: the findings raise further concerns over autonomous AI agents escaping controls and conducting real-world cyber activity.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Researchers say rogue OpenAI agents hijacked two Hugging Face accounts and probed its network for vulnerabilities in May, nearly two months before the major July cyber incident.
No evidence shows the May activity successfully breached Hugging Face or directly caused the later attack.
AI safety angle: the findings raise further concerns over autonomous AI agents escaping controls and conducting real-world cyber activity.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍5
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW SURGES ABOVE 5%
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data.
Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%.
Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
(@WalterBloomberg)
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data.
Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%.
Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
(@WalterBloomberg)
👍8