Walter Bloomberg
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TRUMP ON IRAN: WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT U.S.A. WILL CHOOSE TO ENGAGE, CONCEPT OF WHICH WE ARE OPEN TO
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ DEMS TAKE THE LEAD IN THE RACE FOR SENATE CONTROL

Kalshi now puts Democrats at 51% vs. Republicans at 49%, as the battle for the Senate remains a true toss-up heading into November.
https://t.co/D1o3O0u6JK https://t.co/ZtA7ADzz5G
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DEEPSEEK HIRES FIRST CFO AHEAD OF POSSIBLE IPO

DeepSeek plans to hire GL Ventures partner Yan Wentao as its first CFO, Reuters reports, as the Chinese AI startup prepares for a potential IPO. The company has also tapped CITIC Securities for a possible Shanghai STAR Market listing and is fundraising at a roughly $74 billion valuation. (Reuters)

Why it matters: Another concrete step toward a potentially major Chinese AI listing.
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TRUMP SAYS AI TAKING OVER WORLD, DESTROYING HUMANITY IS A HOAX
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U.S.-IRAN PHASED DEAL REPORTEDLY IN PLAY

Washington may be considering a β€œphased” agreement with Tehran aimed at ending the U.S.-Iran conflict, according to a Pakistani source cited by ILNA.

The source cautioned that Trump’s recent comments do not necessarily signal a comprehensive deal is near, but may instead reflect Washington’s political and military calculations.
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OPENAI BUYS STARTUP DEVELOPING SMARTPHONE CAMERA CALLED GLASS IMAGING, VALUED ABOVE $300 MILLION IN DEAL - WSJ
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IRAN'S IRGC: OIL TANKER EXPLODED AFTER COLLIDING WITH MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND CAUGHT FIRE - IRAN'S FARS
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TRUMP, ALTMAN SPLIT OVER AI SAFETY

President Trump privately met OpenAI CEO Sam Altman last week to discuss AI and its growing power, according to MS NOW.

Days later, their positions diverged sharply.

Altman backed slowing frontier AI development to prioritize safety, while Trump rejected additional guardrails, warning that regulation could undermine America’s AI leadership and economic growth.
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TRUMP DISMISSES AI AND DATA CENTER FEARS

President Trump rejected warnings that AI could threaten humanity or data centers could harm communities, comparing those concerns to his criticism of climate-change warnings.

Trump accused critics of pushing a political agenda and suggested they may be working against U.S. interests.

His comments reinforce his push for rapid AI expansion with limited regulatory barriers.
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TRUMP DISMISSES AI TAKEOVER FEARS

President Trump rejected warnings that AI and robots could eventually threaten humanity, calling the concerns a β€œhoax.”

He compared fears of AI taking control to past controversies over Russia and climate change.

The comments reinforce Trump’s stance against slowing AI development or imposing tougher guardrails on the industry.
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*IRAN SAYS NO TALKS WITH US UNTIL ITS CONDITIONS ARE MET

*IRAN SAYS NO TALKS WITH US UNTIL ITS CONDITIONS ARE MET

*IRAN TOP SECURITY OFFICIAL MOHSEN REZAEE SAYS IN POST ON X

*REZAEE: US PRESIDENT SENDS β€˜MIXED SIGNALS’ ON NEGOTIATIONS
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U.S. WAR IN IRAN STRAINS MUNITIONS STOCKPILES

Heavy U.S. weapons use during Operation Epic Fury has caused strategic inventory shortages and exposed production bottlenecks, according to the Pentagon inspector general.

The Pentagon estimated $22.3 billion in munitions had been used by late June, with total war costs exceeding $33 billion.

Officials are now accelerating procurement and stockpiling critical materials to rebuild supplies.
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IRANIAN GOVERNMENT JET ENTERS SAUDI AIRSPACE

An Iranian government aircraft (EP-IGF) has reportedly entered Saudi Arabian airspace.

The flight is fueling speculation that a senior Iranian delegation may be heading to Riyadh in an effort to de-escalate tensions involving Yemen’s Houthis.

No official confirmation of the aircraft’s mission has been provided.
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IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER TO VISIT CHINA

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit China on September 16 for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The visit follows reports alleging Chinese entities provided Iran with satellite imagery ahead of a strike on a U.S. base.

Market angle: China could emerge as a mediator, with Xi Jinping saying Beijing will work with BRICS partners to help bring peace to the Middle East.
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INVESTORS TURN CAUTIOUS AS BOND YIELDS SURGE

Investor enthusiasm for stocks is fading as rising bond yields and U.S. midterm uncertainty weigh on sentiment, BofA’s fund manager survey shows.

Global equity overweight fell to 49% from 56%, while cash levels increased.

A disorderly bond selloff is now the top market tail risk, though investors remain bullish on corporate earnings and economic growth.
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SAUDI OIL EXPORTS PIVOT EAST

Damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline could cut Yanbu exports by 2.5–2.7 million bpd for up to six weeks, according to Kpler.

Saudi Arabia can redirect roughly 3 million bpd through Ras Tanura, but that increases reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

Market angle: greater Hormuz exposure keeps geopolitical risk elevated and supports Dubai crude differentials.
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KREMLIN: WE THINK TRUMP'S PROPOSAL ON CEASEFIRE WITH UKRAINE ON ENERGY TARGETS IS A GOOD IDEA
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KREMLIN: IF SANCTIONS ARE LIFTED, WORLD ENERGY PRICES WILL GO DOWN
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KREMLIN BACKS RUSSIA-UKRAINE ENERGY TRUCE

The Kremlin welcomed Trump’s proposal for Russia and Ukraine to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure.

Trump said both sides had agreed to the moratorium.

Moscow also called for sanctions on Russian energy supplies to be lifted, adding another dimension to potential negotiations.
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ WHAT TO WATCH TODAY β€” U.S. MARKETS

8:15 AM ET β€” πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ADP Weekly Employment Estimate
8:30 AM ET β€” πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Empire State Manufacturing
11:30 AM ET β€” πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 6-Week Treasury Auction
1:00 PM ET β€” πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 20-Year Treasury Auction
4:30 PM ET β€” πŸ›’οΈ API Oil Inventories
All Day β€” 🏦 FOMC Meeting β€” Day 1
β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”

πŸ”₯ 20-YEAR TREASURY AUCTION β€” KEY EVENT

The $13B 20-year reopening is today’s biggest fixed-time test.

With long-term yields elevated, demand could have a significant impact across markets.

Weak demand β†’ yields ↑ β†’ stocks pressured
Strong demand β†’ yields ↓ β†’ stocks supported

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ EMPIRE STATE

September manufacturing data provide an early look at U.S. factory activity.

A major surprise could move yields and the dollar, although attention is increasingly shifting toward the Fed.

🏦 FED β€” DAY 1

The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today.

No major Fed speakers are scheduled. The rate decision, dot plot and Powell press conference come Wednesday.

Watch the 2Y yield, 10Y yield, dollar and Fed-rate pricing.

πŸ›’οΈ OIL

API inventories arrive after the close, ahead of Wednesday’s official EIA report.

With crude prices elevated, another large inventory draw could reinforce inflation concerns.

🌍 GLOBAL

UK labor-market data and Germany’s ZEW survey are the main international releases ahead of the U.S. session.
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OIL RALLY BUILDS AS SUPPLY RISKS MOUNT

WTI climbed 1% to $102.40, holding near recent highs as Middle East supply concerns persist.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has declined, while Saudi pipeline disruptions and uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine energy truce support prices.

Crack spreads remain strong, and WTI’s technical trend is bullish.

Market angle: a break higher could put $106.98 in focus.
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