BOFA: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS TEST FED CREDIBILITY
BofA said 5Y5Y forward inflation expectations have become the key gauge of Fed credibility as markets question whether policymakers will follow through on inflation-fighting rhetoric.
The bank said recent gains in forward breakevens reflect weakening confidence in the Fed, though levels remain within historical ranges. BofA still expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September.
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BofA said 5Y5Y forward inflation expectations have become the key gauge of Fed credibility as markets question whether policymakers will follow through on inflation-fighting rhetoric.
The bank said recent gains in forward breakevens reflect weakening confidence in the Fed, though levels remain within historical ranges. BofA still expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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MORGAN STANLEY CUTS CHINA GDP FORECAST
Morgan Stanley lowered its 2026 China GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% after weaker-than-expected June activity.
The bank cited slowing infrastructure spending, softer consumer demand and continued property weakness. It expects policy support to stay focused on AI and energy infrastructure rather than consumption, while still forecasting modest growth improvement in the second half.
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Morgan Stanley lowered its 2026 China GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% after weaker-than-expected June activity.
The bank cited slowing infrastructure spending, softer consumer demand and continued property weakness. It expects policy support to stay focused on AI and energy infrastructure rather than consumption, while still forecasting modest growth improvement in the second half.
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HASSETT: THINK THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMB IS A TEMPORARY MATTER
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$NVDA - MOONSHOT'S KIMI BUILT ON 20,000 NVIDIA CHIP CLUSTER VIA ALIBABA
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HASSETT: WILL CONTINUE MEASURES TO KEEP OIL PRICE DOWN IF NEEDED
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MOONSHOT BUILDS AI ON ALIBABA'S NVIDIA CLUSTER
Chinese AI startup Moonshot built its Kimi model using access to an Alibaba computing cluster of around 20,000 Nvidia GPUs, according to Bloomberg.
The partnership highlights Alibaba's role in supplying large-scale AI infrastructure as competition among Chinese AI developers intensifies.
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Chinese AI startup Moonshot built its Kimi model using access to an Alibaba computing cluster of around 20,000 Nvidia GPUs, according to Bloomberg.
The partnership highlights Alibaba's role in supplying large-scale AI infrastructure as competition among Chinese AI developers intensifies.
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📊 SEPTEMBER FED HIKE BACK IN PLAY
The Fed held rates steady and offered no guidance, but markets viewed the meeting as dovish after Chair Kevin Warsh suggested tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Fed's work.
Despite the pause, three FOMC officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Kalshi now prices a 53% chance of a September rate hike, versus 46% for no change.
https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT
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The Fed held rates steady and offered no guidance, but markets viewed the meeting as dovish after Chair Kevin Warsh suggested tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Fed's work.
Despite the pause, three FOMC officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Kalshi now prices a 53% chance of a September rate hike, versus 46% for no change.
https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT
(@WalterBloomberg)
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TRUMP WARNS ISRAEL ON GAZA DEAL
A U.S. official said President Donald Trump would be "very disappointed" if Israel fails to honor the agreed 20-point Gaza peace plan.
The U.S. expects Israel to comply, while Hamas' disarmament is expected to be refined over the coming weeks, with progress anticipated within one to two months despite opposition from members of Israel's governing coalition.
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A U.S. official said President Donald Trump would be "very disappointed" if Israel fails to honor the agreed 20-point Gaza peace plan.
The U.S. expects Israel to comply, while Hamas' disarmament is expected to be refined over the coming weeks, with progress anticipated within one to two months despite opposition from members of Israel's governing coalition.
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BCA RESEARCH TURNS BULLISH ON GOLD
BCA Research said it's time to buy gold, arguing the recent selloff is nearing an end as headwinds from higher real yields fade.
The firm expects a weaker U.S. dollar to become a tailwind for gold, while continued central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and reserve diversification should provide long-term support.
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BCA Research said it's time to buy gold, arguing the recent selloff is nearing an end as headwinds from higher real yields fade.
The firm expects a weaker U.S. dollar to become a tailwind for gold, while continued central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and reserve diversification should provide long-term support.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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TRADERS BRACE FOR S&P 500 VOLATILITY
Investors are increasing hedges against broader S&P 500 swings as macro risks—including inflation, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical tensions—take center stage after earnings season.
Goldman Sachs favors a reverse dispersion trade, betting on higher index volatility but lower single-stock volatility. Demand for downside protection is also rising ahead of the historically volatile August-September period.
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Investors are increasing hedges against broader S&P 500 swings as macro risks—including inflation, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical tensions—take center stage after earnings season.
Goldman Sachs favors a reverse dispersion trade, betting on higher index volatility but lower single-stock volatility. Demand for downside protection is also rising ahead of the historically volatile August-September period.
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US TREASURY HAS INFORMED BANKS THAT IT MAY INTERVENE IN YEN MARKET ON FRIDAY - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER
US TREASURY TOLD A NUMBER OF BANKS VIA NEW YORK FED THAT BANKS SHOULD STAND BY FOR 'FUTURE ACTIONS' - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER
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US TREASURY TOLD A NUMBER OF BANKS VIA NEW YORK FED THAT BANKS SHOULD STAND BY FOR 'FUTURE ACTIONS' - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER
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SPOT GOLD EXTENDS LOSSES, LAST DOWN NEARLY 2% AT $4,024.69/OZ
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ISRAELI OFFICIAL: ISRAEL WILL NOT WITHDRAW FROM THE YELLOW LINE IN GAZA UNLESS HAMAS UNDERGOES 'GENUINE DISARMAMENT'
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LOGAN BACKS IMMEDIATE RATE HIKE
Fed Governor Lorie Logan said she preferred a 25 bp rate hike, arguing inflation is not on track to sustainably return to the Fed's 2% target.
Logan said taking modest action now would reduce the risk of more aggressive tightening later, while stressing the Fed cannot rely on unexpected shocks to achieve its inflation goal.
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Fed Governor Lorie Logan said she preferred a 25 bp rate hike, arguing inflation is not on track to sustainably return to the Fed's 2% target.
Logan said taking modest action now would reduce the risk of more aggressive tightening later, while stressing the Fed cannot rely on unexpected shocks to achieve its inflation goal.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT TOPS ESTIMATES
University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 55.2 in July, above the 54.0 consensus and up from 49.5 in June.
One-year inflation expectations held at 4.2%, down from 4.6% in June, while the five-year outlook remained at 3.3%, pointing to stable long-term inflation expectations.
(@WalterBloomberg)
University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 55.2 in July, above the 54.0 consensus and up from 49.5 in June.
One-year inflation expectations held at 4.2%, down from 4.6% in June, while the five-year outlook remained at 3.3%, pointing to stable long-term inflation expectations.
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US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS RISE TO 4.7388%, HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY 2025
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TREASURY SELLOFF GATHERS MOMENTUM
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
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U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
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AMAZON SHARES JUMP 15.2%, SET FOR BIGGEST PERCENTAGE GAIN SINCE 2012
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CITI SEES BUY-THE-DIP SHIFT IN KOSPI
Citi said investors have shifted to buying Kospi pullbacks, citing record foreign inflows, improving pension fund demand and tighter retail trading rules.
The bank maintained its 10,000 Kospi target, saying solid memory-chip fundamentals, attractive valuations and potential government support should continue to underpin the market.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Citi said investors have shifted to buying Kospi pullbacks, citing record foreign inflows, improving pension fund demand and tighter retail trading rules.
The bank maintained its 10,000 Kospi target, saying solid memory-chip fundamentals, attractive valuations and potential government support should continue to underpin the market.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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TRUMP: SAYS THERE'S NO INFORMATION ICC IS AFTER ME
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