FED DECISION: WHAT TO WATCH
The Fed is expected to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but markets still see a roughly one-in-three chance of a surprise hike.
The focus is on Chair Kevin Warsh's message as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns despite softer June CPI.
Morgan Stanley expects no hikes this year, while BofA believes Warsh could begin raising rates as soon as September.
(@WalterBloomberg)
The Fed is expected to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but markets still see a roughly one-in-three chance of a surprise hike.
The focus is on Chair Kevin Warsh's message as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns despite softer June CPI.
Morgan Stanley expects no hikes this year, while BofA believes Warsh could begin raising rates as soon as September.
(@WalterBloomberg)
$F - FORD MOTOR SHARES UP 3.9% PREMARKET AFTER CO RAISES FY PROFIT OUTLOOK
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MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT ESCALATES
Fighting between Iran and the US intensified overnight as Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces, while the US and Saudi Arabia responded with strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, ending a brief diplomatic pause.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones targeting its oil facilities for a second consecutive day. The US said all Iranian missiles aimed at its forces were intercepted.
Oil prices jumped nearly 4%, with Brent crude rising to around $87 a barrel, as traders reacted to renewed supply concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with shipping heavily disrupted, while tensions are also rising in the Red Sea after attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
The widening conflict now spans Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, raising fears of a broader regional war. Markets are increasingly focused on energy security, inflation risks and the potential economic fallout, while hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks continue to fade.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Fighting between Iran and the US intensified overnight as Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces, while the US and Saudi Arabia responded with strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, ending a brief diplomatic pause.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones targeting its oil facilities for a second consecutive day. The US said all Iranian missiles aimed at its forces were intercepted.
Oil prices jumped nearly 4%, with Brent crude rising to around $87 a barrel, as traders reacted to renewed supply concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with shipping heavily disrupted, while tensions are also rising in the Red Sea after attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
The widening conflict now spans Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, raising fears of a broader regional war. Markets are increasingly focused on energy security, inflation risks and the potential economic fallout, while hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks continue to fade.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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🏛️ FED WATCH
Kalshi traders see a 77% chance the Fed holds rates today and a 23% chance of a surprise 25bp hike.
Citadel Securities disagrees, expecting Chair Kevin Warsh to raise rates to reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility and signal the end of the forward-guidance era.
With markets split, today's decision and Warsh's remarks could set the tone for the rest of 2026.
https://t.co/a1YS4Pvo9z
(@WalterBloomberg)
Kalshi traders see a 77% chance the Fed holds rates today and a 23% chance of a surprise 25bp hike.
Citadel Securities disagrees, expecting Chair Kevin Warsh to raise rates to reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility and signal the end of the forward-guidance era.
With markets split, today's decision and Warsh's remarks could set the tone for the rest of 2026.
https://t.co/a1YS4Pvo9z
(@WalterBloomberg)
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ARAMCO REROUTES OIL TO ASIA
Saudi Aramco is considering a new pricing system for crude shipped from Egypt's Sidi Kerir to Asia as Houthi attacks disrupt Red Sea routes.
Asian refiners are seeking discounts to offset higher shipping costs and longer transit times around Africa.
The move highlights growing pressure on global oil flows as security risks in the Middle East continue to disrupt key export routes.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Saudi Aramco is considering a new pricing system for crude shipped from Egypt's Sidi Kerir to Asia as Houthi attacks disrupt Red Sea routes.
Asian refiners are seeking discounts to offset higher shipping costs and longer transit times around Africa.
The move highlights growing pressure on global oil flows as security risks in the Middle East continue to disrupt key export routes.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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MARKET MOVERS
🟢 UPGRADES
$ASTS: Scotiabank upgraded to Sector Perform; PT raised to $50.80 from $41.20
$KMX: JP Morgan upgraded to Neutral; PT raised to $60 from $38
🔴 DOWNGRADES
$CZR: TD Cowen downgraded to Hold
$CSGP: KBW downgraded to Market Perform; PT cut to $29 from $41
$EBC: Stephens downgraded to Equal Weight
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🟢 UPGRADES
$ASTS: Scotiabank upgraded to Sector Perform; PT raised to $50.80 from $41.20
$KMX: JP Morgan upgraded to Neutral; PT raised to $60 from $38
🔴 DOWNGRADES
$CZR: TD Cowen downgraded to Hold
$CSGP: KBW downgraded to Market Perform; PT cut to $29 from $41
$EBC: Stephens downgraded to Equal Weight
(@WalterBloomberg)
📈 PRICE TARGET RAISED
$ABBV: Barclays PT raised to $300 from $275
$ACHC: Jefferies PT raised to $40 from $37
$ALT: Leerink Partners PT raised to $13 from $10
$AMGN: Barclays PT raised to $360 from $350
$ARWR: RBC PT raised to $100 from $87
$ABG: Jefferies PT raised to $260 from $215
$ASTS: Scotiabank PT raised to $50.80 from $41.20
$AXTA: Jefferies PT raised to $37 from $33
$BAC: JP Morgan PT raised to $68 from $62.5
$BMRC: Stephens PT raised to $30 from $26
$BIIB: Barclays PT raised to $200 from $185
$BA: JP Morgan PT raised to $290 from $270
$BRO: RBC PT raised to $78 from $72
$BCAL: Stephens PT raised to $24 from $22
$CASY: RBC PT raised to $913 from $850
$CNC: Barclays PT raised to $80 from $75
$CAKE: Stephens PT raised to $93 from $80
$CFG: JP Morgan PT raised to $78 from $76
$CLW: RBC PT raised to $21 from $19
$KO: Citigroup PT raised to $100 from $97; Jefferies PT raised to $104 from $95; JP Morgan PT raised to $96 from $90; Morgan Stanley PT raised to $100 from $89; Piper Sandler PT raised to $95 from $88; RBC PT raised to $96 from $87; TD Cowen PT raised to $100 from $90
$CORT: Canaccord Genuity PT raised to $150 from $135
$CORZ: Canaccord Genuity PT raised to $36 from $30
$ECL: JP Morgan PT raised to $305 from $295
$FMAO: Piper Sandler PT raised to $36 from $32
$FITB: JP Morgan PT raised to $62 from $61
$FHB: Stephens PT raised to $32 from $28
$F: JP Morgan PT raised to $17 from $16; Morgan Stanley PT raised to $15 from $14; Piper Sandler PT raised to $17 from $16; RBC PT raised to $15 from $13
$HTO: BTIG PT raised to $70 from $67
$HBT: Piper Sandler PT raised to $39 from $34
$DINO: JP Morgan PT raised to $94 from $87; TD Cowen PT raised to $100 from $98; Barclays PT raised to $86 from $81
$HLT: Barclays PT raised to $368 from $367
$ITW: Jefferies PT raised to $320 from $260; JP Morgan PT raised to $350 from $310
$INCY: Guggenheim PT raised to $150 from $136; H.C. Wainwright PT raised to $150 from $140; TD Cowen PT raised to $138 from $124; Barclays PT raised to $139 from $134
$IVZ: RBC PT raised to $35 from $33; TD Cowen PT raised to $37 from $33; Barclays PT raised to $32 from $31
(@WalterBloomberg)
$ABBV: Barclays PT raised to $300 from $275
$ACHC: Jefferies PT raised to $40 from $37
$ALT: Leerink Partners PT raised to $13 from $10
$AMGN: Barclays PT raised to $360 from $350
$ARWR: RBC PT raised to $100 from $87
$ABG: Jefferies PT raised to $260 from $215
$ASTS: Scotiabank PT raised to $50.80 from $41.20
$AXTA: Jefferies PT raised to $37 from $33
$BAC: JP Morgan PT raised to $68 from $62.5
$BMRC: Stephens PT raised to $30 from $26
$BIIB: Barclays PT raised to $200 from $185
$BA: JP Morgan PT raised to $290 from $270
$BRO: RBC PT raised to $78 from $72
$BCAL: Stephens PT raised to $24 from $22
$CASY: RBC PT raised to $913 from $850
$CNC: Barclays PT raised to $80 from $75
$CAKE: Stephens PT raised to $93 from $80
$CFG: JP Morgan PT raised to $78 from $76
$CLW: RBC PT raised to $21 from $19
$KO: Citigroup PT raised to $100 from $97; Jefferies PT raised to $104 from $95; JP Morgan PT raised to $96 from $90; Morgan Stanley PT raised to $100 from $89; Piper Sandler PT raised to $95 from $88; RBC PT raised to $96 from $87; TD Cowen PT raised to $100 from $90
$CORT: Canaccord Genuity PT raised to $150 from $135
$CORZ: Canaccord Genuity PT raised to $36 from $30
$ECL: JP Morgan PT raised to $305 from $295
$FMAO: Piper Sandler PT raised to $36 from $32
$FITB: JP Morgan PT raised to $62 from $61
$FHB: Stephens PT raised to $32 from $28
$F: JP Morgan PT raised to $17 from $16; Morgan Stanley PT raised to $15 from $14; Piper Sandler PT raised to $17 from $16; RBC PT raised to $15 from $13
$HTO: BTIG PT raised to $70 from $67
$HBT: Piper Sandler PT raised to $39 from $34
$DINO: JP Morgan PT raised to $94 from $87; TD Cowen PT raised to $100 from $98; Barclays PT raised to $86 from $81
$HLT: Barclays PT raised to $368 from $367
$ITW: Jefferies PT raised to $320 from $260; JP Morgan PT raised to $350 from $310
$INCY: Guggenheim PT raised to $150 from $136; H.C. Wainwright PT raised to $150 from $140; TD Cowen PT raised to $138 from $124; Barclays PT raised to $139 from $134
$IVZ: RBC PT raised to $35 from $33; TD Cowen PT raised to $37 from $33; Barclays PT raised to $32 from $31
(@WalterBloomberg)
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📉 PRICE TARGET CUT
$BE: JP Morgan PT cut to $314 from $346
$BA: RBC PT cut to $265 from $275
$LEU: JP Morgan PT cut to $178 from $236
$CHTR: JP Morgan PT cut to $150 from $200
$GLW: Citigroup PT cut to $220 from $240; JP Morgan PT cut to $170 from $200; Barclays PT cut to $129 from $180
$CSGP: JP Morgan PT cut to $52 from $58; KBW PT cut to $29 from $41; Needham PT cut to $40 from $50
$DIS: Citigroup PT cut to $135 from $145
$GILD: Barclays PT cut to $145 from $155
$HLT: Jefferies PT cut to $394 from $397
$KLAC: Deutsche Bank PT cut to $195 from $220; Susquehanna PT cut to $215 from $275
$LSTR: Baird PT cut to $215 from $225
$MP: JP Morgan PT cut to $60 from $75
$PGR: TD Cowen PT cut to $222 from $266
$QRVO: Citigroup PT cut to $95 from $100
$SPGI: JP Morgan PT cut to $530 from $555; Barclays PT cut to $553 from $555
$SWKS: Citigroup PT cut to $64 from $77; JP Morgan PT cut to $65 from $70; RBC PT cut to $70 from $80; TD Cowen PT cut to $65 from $75
$UPS: Bernstein PT cut to $131 from $133; JP Morgan PT cut to $115 from $118; Stephens PT cut to $130 from $135
$VRNS: Barclays PT cut to $50 from $52
(@WalterBloomberg)
$BE: JP Morgan PT cut to $314 from $346
$BA: RBC PT cut to $265 from $275
$LEU: JP Morgan PT cut to $178 from $236
$CHTR: JP Morgan PT cut to $150 from $200
$GLW: Citigroup PT cut to $220 from $240; JP Morgan PT cut to $170 from $200; Barclays PT cut to $129 from $180
$CSGP: JP Morgan PT cut to $52 from $58; KBW PT cut to $29 from $41; Needham PT cut to $40 from $50
$DIS: Citigroup PT cut to $135 from $145
$GILD: Barclays PT cut to $145 from $155
$HLT: Jefferies PT cut to $394 from $397
$KLAC: Deutsche Bank PT cut to $195 from $220; Susquehanna PT cut to $215 from $275
$LSTR: Baird PT cut to $215 from $225
$MP: JP Morgan PT cut to $60 from $75
$PGR: TD Cowen PT cut to $222 from $266
$QRVO: Citigroup PT cut to $95 from $100
$SPGI: JP Morgan PT cut to $530 from $555; Barclays PT cut to $553 from $555
$SWKS: Citigroup PT cut to $64 from $77; JP Morgan PT cut to $65 from $70; RBC PT cut to $70 from $80; TD Cowen PT cut to $65 from $75
$UPS: Bernstein PT cut to $131 from $133; JP Morgan PT cut to $115 from $118; Stephens PT cut to $130 from $135
$VRNS: Barclays PT cut to $50 from $52
(@WalterBloomberg)
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ECOMMERCE MOMENTUM BUILDS
Bernstein raised its U.S. eCommerce forecasts after estimating Q2 sales growth of 11%, up from 5-6% in recent quarters.
The firm expects strong results from Etsy, eBay and Wayfair, while Amazon's earnings will hinge more on AWS, where investors are looking for 30%+ cloud growth.
Bernstein also expects AI-driven capex to rise further in 2027.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Bernstein raised its U.S. eCommerce forecasts after estimating Q2 sales growth of 11%, up from 5-6% in recent quarters.
The firm expects strong results from Etsy, eBay and Wayfair, while Amazon's earnings will hinge more on AWS, where investors are looking for 30%+ cloud growth.
Bernstein also expects AI-driven capex to rise further in 2027.
(@WalterBloomberg)
IRAN PUSHES BACK ON US TALK CLAIMS
Iran says it has not sought negotiations with the U.S. over the past two weeks, rejecting President Trump's claim that Tehran wants talks.
A senior Iranian official also insisted Iran will not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, calling it central to the country's war objectives.
The comments came hours before Iran launched fresh missile attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Iran says it has not sought negotiations with the U.S. over the past two weeks, rejecting President Trump's claim that Tehran wants talks.
A senior Iranian official also insisted Iran will not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, calling it central to the country's war objectives.
The comments came hours before Iran launched fresh missile attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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LONDON POPULATION SHRINKS
London's population fell by 27,000 in 2025 to 9.1 million, marking its first decline outside the pandemic since 1988.
The drop was driven by residents moving elsewhere in the UK as high housing costs and remote work made living outside the capital more attractive.
London was the only region in England to record a population decline last year.
(@WalterBloomberg)
London's population fell by 27,000 in 2025 to 9.1 million, marking its first decline outside the pandemic since 1988.
The drop was driven by residents moving elsewhere in the UK as high housing costs and remote work made living outside the capital more attractive.
London was the only region in England to record a population decline last year.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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ZUCKERBERG PUSHES FOR FASTER AI
Mark Zuckerberg urged the U.S. to accelerate AI development, arguing the technology's benefits outweigh its risks and warning against regulations that could slow innovation.
The Meta CEO also opposed restricting open-source AI models, saying the focus should be on boosting U.S. competitiveness rather than limiting access.
His comments come as Meta ramps up AI spending ahead of earnings.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Mark Zuckerberg urged the U.S. to accelerate AI development, arguing the technology's benefits outweigh its risks and warning against regulations that could slow innovation.
The Meta CEO also opposed restricting open-source AI models, saying the focus should be on boosting U.S. competitiveness rather than limiting access.
His comments come as Meta ramps up AI spending ahead of earnings.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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FED PLAYBOOK: JPM'S S&P 500 SCENARIOS
JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, with a hawkish hold as its base case (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%.
A dovish hold (28%) is seen as the most bullish outcome, lifting the index up to 1%.
A 25bp hike (20%) could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq likely underperforming.
(@WalterBloomberg)
JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, with a hawkish hold as its base case (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%.
A dovish hold (28%) is seen as the most bullish outcome, lifting the index up to 1%.
A 25bp hike (20%) could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq likely underperforming.
(@WalterBloomberg)
CENTCOM WARNS OVER OPSEC RISKS
CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper warned U.S. troops that sharing cellphone videos online could help Iran assess the success of attacks on U.S. bases in near real time.
The warning follows deadly Iranian strikes in July and stresses that poor operational security could put American service members and civilians at greater risk.
(@WalterBloomberg)
CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper warned U.S. troops that sharing cellphone videos online could help Iran assess the success of attacks on U.S. bases in near real time.
The warning follows deadly Iranian strikes in July and stresses that poor operational security could put American service members and civilians at greater risk.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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TRUMP ON IRAN: GOING TO LET THEM KEEP TALKING -FOX INTERVIEW
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TRUMP: U.S. STRIKES WILL TAKE PLACE AGAINST IRAN IN RESPONSE TO ATTACKS ON U.S. TARGETS IN JORDAN -FOX
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S&P 500, NASDAQ FUTURES TURN NEGATIVE AFTER TRUMP'S COMMENTS ON IRAN
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*SOUTH KOREA FINANCE MINISTRY TO STABILIZE STOCK MARKET
*SOUTH KOREA FINANCE MINISTRY TO RESTRICT LEVERAGED ETF TRADING
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*SOUTH KOREA FINANCE MINISTRY TO RESTRICT LEVERAGED ETF TRADING
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S.KOREA FINMIN: TO MAINTAIN 24-HOUR STOCK MARKET MONITORING SYSTEM
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S. KOREA TO CAP RETAIL EXPOSURE TO LEVERAGED ETF INVESTMENT
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