INFLATION COOLS SLIGHTLY, FED STILL ON HOLD

🔸CPI: +0.9% m/m, +3.3% y/y (in line / slightly soft)
🔸Core: +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y (cooler than expected)

A mild downside surprise—but not enough to shift policy.

Traders still bet the Fed stays on hold through 2026.

inflation is https://t.co/F9tJec7zBX
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TRADERS KEEP BETS THE FED WILL STAY ON HOLD ALL 2026
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IRAN-US TALKS SET AMID UNCERTAINTY

An Iranian delegation is set to arrive in Islamabad Friday ahead of high-stakes talks with the US aimed at turning a fragile ceasefire into a lasting deal.

Iran is expected to send senior officials, while the US delegation includes Vice
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OIL PATH COULD SWING GLOBAL GDP BY OVER $1 TRILLION.

Oil is holding below $100 as markets weigh fragile ceasefire risks against potential escalation.

Bloomberg’s base case: prolonged low-intensity conflict → slower global growth (2.9% in 2026) and higher inflation (~4.2% https://t.co/wKWnTkdORh
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IRANIAN MEDIA REPORTING OF SMOKE PLUMES RISING IN THE SKY OVER TEHRAN
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HASSETT: WE EXPECT RAPID REDUCTION IN ENERGY PRICES ONCE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPENS
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HASSETT: OUTLOOK FOR FED HAVING ROOM TO CUT RATES IS GOING TO BE VERY SOLID
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🚨 HASSETT: WE HAVE BACKUP PLANS FOR OPENING HORMUZ
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🚨 *HASSETT: HORMUZ CAN BE OPENED WITHIN TWO MONTHS
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Trump: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! President DJT' https://t.co/ini3zmQv0F
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RUSSIA RECOGNISES STANFORD UNIVERSITY AS UNDESIRABLE 'ORGANISATION' - IFAX
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US NEGOTIATORS TO ASK IRAN TO RELEASE DETAINED AMERICANS: WAPO
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*UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO RECORD-LOW 47.6; EST. 51.5

*UMICH 1-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE TO 4.8% FROM 3.8%
*UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO RECORD-LOW 47.6; EST. 51.5
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US LIKELY TO APPROVE EXTENSION OF WAIVER ALLOWING SALES OF SOME RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, SOURCES SAY
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION PLANS TO REGULATE CHATGPT MORE STRICTLY IN FUTURE - HANDELSBLATT CITING SOURCES
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SWITZERLAND AIMS TO FINALIZE US TARIFF ACCORD BY THE END OF JULY
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HORMUZ BOTTLENECK PERSISTS

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted, with recent traffic mostly limited to Iran-linked vessels.

Several loaded supertankers have approached the route but stopped short of exiting the الخليج, despite the ceasefire and US https://t.co/kVhMYlqzMV
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U.S., BRENT CRUDE FUTURES FALL AFTER SOURCES SAY U.S. LIKELY TO EXTEND RUSSIAN OIL WAVER , LAST DOWN ABOUT 0.5%
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SPAIN'S PM SANCHEZ: WE'RE READY TO ADVANCE TOWARDS A JOINT EUROPEAN ARMY, EVEN TOMORROW IF NEEDED
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🚨 IRAN'S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON, RELEASE OF IRANIAN BLOCKED ASSETS MUST OCCUR BEFORE TALKS
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IRAN FOREIGN MINISTER ARAQCHI SAYS U.S. MUST ADHERE TO COMMITMENTS TO INCLUDE LEBANON IN CEASEFIRE AND TO HALT ISRAELI ATTACKS AGAINST LEBANON -STATE MEDIA
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