Traditionally, when there are troubled waters in the economy, many see the dollar as safe harbour and invest in it (there are other safe harbours such as precious metals). They do so by converting their assets (other currencies, stocks etc) to the dollar. They then place the dollar into a bank or Government bonds and enjoy the high interest offered. As you can see by the chart, before the tension in the Middle East, when the rate cut was announced, the dollar began to fall. This happens because, as interest falls, traders see more profit in high risk assets such as stocks, commodities and crypto. However, the war brought fear into the markets, and a selloff in stocks, translated to a return to the dollar. The latest missile attack on Israel (white arrow) started the selloff in markets and the jump on the dollar, as shown by the green candles and the blue trend line (1=rate cut, 2=war) It will go higher. No matter what happens now, it will go higher reaching 103.21 and I think it has enough momentum to reach 104.39 (green arrows). The higher it goes, high risk assets will find it more difficult to rise. It doesn’t mean that they can’t rise, it just means, that they will do so slower, and with less momentum. The reason, is that overall, there will be less liquidity, less money into stocks. Eventually this will change as shown by the cycle chart below.

According to this, we should see the dollar weakening from around the 20th until the end of the month (blue box). This correction will be very mild. From then onwards, the charts show an increase of the dollar value again, but remember that fundamentals always have priority. We are near the elections, hopefully the markets will be immune to the events in the Middle East, and we will be looking forward to further rate cuts. These will bring the dollar down, irrespective of what the cycles show us. Good for high risk assets. Good for us. This is a long term bullish factor, however, short term, this is bearish.

Now let’s look at the S&P 500

I have always said that right now we are more dependant than ever on the s&p. It goes up, BTC goes up and vice versa. There are instances when they decouple, but that’s on rare occasions for now, and these occasions don’t last long. Now, according to the cycle brackets, the s&p will form a correction until beginning to mid-November (red box). Again, fundamentals will influence this correction due to elections. I have said before that there should be enough momentum after the election to be safe for 5-7 days. I believe the correction, after these 5-7 days, will be small. It will then rise until 21st of January, before correcting again (green box). I cannot think of elections taking place with markets crashing. There are too many lobby groups involved. Regardless, know that a change in Government usually brings a 4-7% increase in markets. For now, the cycle chart is bearish but fundamentals convert it into bullish with a caution. Repeat, simply looking at the cycle chart, its bearish.

The S&P candle chart shows a nasty surprise. I posted this chart more than a month ago and is still playing out. There is a divergence between the price and both the RSI and momentum. The RSI divergence began mid-March and the momentum divergence began from the beginning of the year. This tells me that institutions are selling and retail buying, and eventually when money runs out, retail will be left holding stocks that nobody wants. This type of chart indicates an upcoming drop. It’s been playing out for a long time now and is still valid. I believe that we will see 6000, before this takes effect. Until we reach 6000, I am bullish/cautious on the S&P but after that, I am bearish. This will not play out before elections. This chart is bearish.

My next chart is the TOTAL
There are 3 cycles brackets on this chart (most of my charts have more than 1 cycle bracket). In this case, ignore the red and brown cycle bracket, I am using the white (22 weeks). As you can see, we are near the bottom of the cycle (white arrow). From the 7th of October, I expect an increase in Total volumes (green box) that should carry us until the end of the year. It is very important that we get this increase, because a flood of new money into crypto is the ultimate fuel that we need. Note that the end of the cycle doesn’t mean that we crash, it simply means that we are due for a correction. This chart is bullish.

My next chart is OTHERS
Again, pay attention only to the white cycle. To simplify, look at the current candles, the red box and the white cycle. Notice that we have been gradually going up since the 5th of August (max pain 29th of July-end of cycle, white arrow). We will continue to rise until the beginning of December (green box). After that, the cycle shows that alts will lose strength, but that’s not how cycles work. Notice the small cycle within the big cycle? That actually dhows an increase in OTHERS (blue highlighter), because this cycle accounts for possible fundamentals. This is bullish.

My next chart is the BTC
According to this chart, BTC price will start to decline and continue to do so until the 11th of November. If nothing was happening during this period, I would be obliged to follow this chart. However, as I mentioned before, fundamentals take priority, and during this period, we have the all-important US elections. Even though I won’t dismiss it, I have a higher confidence of following the next cycle, which shows a rise until the end of the year. This chart is bullish, but with a caution.

This chart is the BTC Dominance.
According to this chart, BTC Dom will continue to increase and will max out beginning of December (2nd?), before its starts falling until the middle of March. This period should be good for ALTS, provided the S&P doesn’t correct (I think it will). I see a lot of traders quoting BTC D maxing at 60%-61%. I see 59.84 as max dominance. Of all the charts to go by, the BTC Dom chart is the most dubious. Do not use this chart as an indicator for ALTS. There have been many instances, when even though BTC D is increasing, so do ALTS. I see this chart as being neutral, neither bearish nor bullish.

This is the ETH/BTC chart. It shows that it will continue to decrease until the 21st of October. It will then start to rise, maxing out on the 2nd week of February. Regardless of the cycle brackets, I think we are near the bottom. A rise in ETHBTC, will give ALTS a much better environment to grow. This chart is currently neutral/bearish, but it’s on the verge of turning bullish.

All these charts above give a road map of what awaits for us, with a time line. There are values to these charts (max price for BTC etc), but that’s for later on. You may need to read these 2-3 times, but do so, to get a better feel of the way they work. We will use these charts to time our exit strategy. We will get out of this with profits.
Much Love
Mr S.

In about 8 hours from now, I will make an announcement that I should have made last week. Nothing to worry about, it concerns 0.33 cents 😁

Markets are looking weaker. Pre markets in the red. 62449 will be hit.

Pre markets still flat/red but liquidity is drying up. Pressure for down.

I expected 62449 but stopped at 62650. But these 2 hikes (shown by arrows) were achieved under special circumstances. The first was on Sunday when markets were closed. The second when markets were open but s&p was in the red. A repeat of this, is bullish and if this becomes a trend then October will be awesome. Touching the comfort box is a sign of things to come.

Announcement:

My tg channel goes from a free channel to a paid subscription channel on 10/10/2024 (starting from this Thursday).

Subscription is set at a low $10 per month. The amount is to be paid in USDT or USDC. This secures a standard fee of $10 per month. There is no variation according to the price of BTC. $10 every month. This low fee is done for one purpose only. NO ONE SHOULD BE LEFT BEHIND.  $10 only comes to 0.33 cents a day. There will be no subscription window. From Thursday, you may pay $10 in USDT or USDC, whenever you want, and you will have a 30 day membership from the day you make payment.

Subscribers will have access to the premium tg channel. Here, I will share all my posts, in the manner that you are used to. I will also post short videos. These will be chart related videos, explaining my chart interpretation. All videos will be less than 60 seconds long. These will be very educational. I will also expand on  'when' and 'what' the ATH's will be reached according to me. Note that fundamentals change everything, so you will alway be up to date.

Instructions on how to join will be shared on Wednesday.

Mr. S

In absence of any hostilities, this should begin to play out. 11th of October should boost this.

Oil is up by nearly 4%. This indicates to me that something is about to unfold that will hurt stocks. If its a big event, it will hurt crypto as well.

Yesterday we had 233.8 million in btc etf inflows. See what  i mean about markets digesting war? They now have enough confidence to get back into the game. Another few days of confidence, and even if there is retaliation, it will have a smaller effect, because psychologically, the event is already priced in.  Even oil has dropped overnight.
For today, I see some indifference rather than weakness. BTC should range from 62457-63220. I give a higher confidence for BTC loosing some ground, rather than gaining (61591) Vix is rising and we can't ignore that. ALTS will run parallel to BTC. The above is valid for the next 9 hrs, although we may see some volatility in 7hrs.

I do not like this candle at all. Its yesterday's daily candle and its a top hat candle. Its placement indicates a reversal (fall in price). There are fundamentals that can negate this, but they are not due until Thursday and Friday.