We have strong support at 60017 (white) which also coincides with a long term trend line (orange). You know the 60017 level because I have mentioned it many times here. As long as we are above it, I'm bullish.

The markets need to digest this war mongering. Once it is clear that there will be no attack on oil infrastructure, then we will see a substantial reversal. If, however, there is an attack on oil, everything changes and by everything, I mean monetary policy by the FED (rate cuts, inflation, recession).

Pre-markets are turning slightly negative. If they continue to be negative, BTC should be affected by this in 7 hrs from now.

This is the DXY daily tf. The blue circle is creating problems for us. It shows that institutional money is taking flight to the dollar (not high risk assets such as stocks and crypto). Pre -markets are currently still in the red but not by a long margin. BTC is still sideways from 7 hrs ago as predicted and I don't see this changing for now. All markets are in anticipation of what happens next in the theatre of war. If all goes well, the whole nasty business should be finished by the end of this week. The markets need closure, so that they can make a new start next week.

On the 20th of September I posted this chart and stated that eventually this divergence will not end well.

I then posted the attached post on the 22nd. Please take a minute to re-read.

Now you get the idea of how dependent we are on Wall Street? If it gets hurt, so do we.

This is graphic representation of what I expect to happen by Friday. We will be in Box 1 for now, markets still feeling the pain of what happened yesterday. As markets slowly start to digest what happened, we will move to Box 2 tomorrow with a slight feeling of well being. Israel will then strike Iran and we enter Box 3 which will brings us down to our 60017 level. Next week we re-enter our comfort box. This scenario is highly speculative. I can not know, when Israel will strike but this is the general path that I expect BTC to take. There are so many variables at play, that I give this a 'low confidence' play.

I repeat. Since there are many variables at play, variables that have nothing to do with finance, the above should not be taken as a guide to leverage. Its is low confidence and therefore high risk.

A headline from the Times of Israel "Israel may respond to Iran’s major Tuesday ballistic missile attack by striking strategic infrastructure, such as gas or oil rigs, or by directly targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, media reports said on Wednesday, citing Israeli officials."

There is something to consider: Both Israel and Iran's local currencies have taken a hit from the confrontation, both currencies losing in value. Citizens from these two countries are well educated in Bitcoin. Here we a have a small advantage, the question is, will this be enough?

Pretty much the same recipe as yesterday the only small difference BTC dominance slightly down. Liquidity in Others is up so ALTs will outperform BTC. Sideways for BTC. This is valid for the next 8 hrs. Focus is still on the anticipation of Israel attack so markets are still edgy.

I'm seeing more pressure the past 2 hrs. Pre-markets are now in red and this will affect everything in 3hrs. There's is now some profit taking in alts which is shows fear.

We have one touch and two 'near' touches on our 60017 support. It's of the upmost importance that we stay above this level. Reason is that if we break below it, a bearish sentiment will form. Those 'buying the dip' will stop and sit on the sidelines to await a better opportunity, putting more pressure on BTC. Know that as we are at current levels, with the clouds of war above us, BTC etf outflows will continue.

2 days of under this level and I change bias.

This will be delayed until next week.

DXY still rising, Oil up 2.75%, smart money is expecting a storm and so am I.

Effect of war on markets:
This will sound cruel and I apologise for any discomfort or pain that this post may cause. Most of us are watching this war through the nightly news but some of you are feeling it up close and personal, because you happen to live in the hot zone. You are reading this because you are invested in the markets or have an interest in finance. Markets, are like children, I mentioned this before. They get enthusiastic, they get scared and sometimes they get bored and fall asleep. They do not cry about death, injuries and destruction of property, in fact some segments of the market, profit from it. These past few days, the stocks dealing in defence and armaments have done extremely well. The rest of the market is the child part. At the first sign of war, they get scared and panic, markets drop. We are at this stage now. The second stage of war, is that they digest what is happening and get bored with it. This will come in a few days. For this to happen, there must be a tension release. In this case, its retaliation. Its anticipated, so once it happens, a lot of weight will be removed from the market’s shoulders. We need this to heal, and by heal I don’t mean peace. As a human race, we have not reached this maturity yet. By healing I mean, focusing less on war and more on business. Oil is going up because there is the chance of Iran’s oil infrastructure being hit. The world can survive without Iran’s oil. It accounts for only 4% of total oil production. Yes, China is its biggest buyer, but they can get it from somewhere else when needed and markets know this, but are still in the ‘scare’ phase. This war may become one of attrition, a long lasting war. As the days pass, it won’t make the front page in the news and markets will lose interest in it and do what they do best, make profit. It happened with the war in the Ukraine. Markets got spooked when it started but now, no matter how many missiles fall, they don’t care. Again, for those of you living in the hot zone, it's tough I know. I have been where you are. You invested in crypto as a way to safeguard your wealth, and will begin to show profit when your hot zone doesn’t make the news anymore. It’s a paradox, I know but your crypto will help you rebuild again. Stay safe.
Mr S.

Meaning of war to me:
I was 7 years old when war broke out. I could hear the planes and explosions and we all lived in basements for a few weeks. No school, all kids were happy. That’s how kids see things. We ate boiled potatoes and canned food, but still no school, still happy. Then a few weeks later I heard that we lost everything, house, lands, livestock. I was given second hand clothing to wear and heard my dad talk about going to another country because he couldn’t find a job to support us. So we all went. Refugees. Everything was new to me, still happy. Made new friends, learned a new language went to new schools. A country that owed me nothing, took me in and gave me an education. I will always love Australia for that. Met some other refugees from my country but from the opposite side. Believe it or not, we had a stronger connection with them, became best of friends and helped each other through hardship. Still happy. Then as I grew older, I found myself hating people. Not everyone, just those that stole and changed the course of my childhood. I distanced myself from others, I was 24 when this happened. Went back to my country and without realising it back then, hated everyone. I saw anniversaries of sons killed in the war, their parents still dressed in black. Believe me, these are the real victims of any war. Those killed and their loved ones left behind. Everything changed for me one afternoon. I saw in the news the anniversary of Auschwitz. A camera was filming an old woman walking towards it, waving her hands frantically. She was shouting something and when she got close to the camera I heard “I forgive everything and everybody”. Fuuuuck! An Auschwitz survivor giving forgiveness to everything and everybody. And here I was, building up hatred within me. I felt sorry for what I had become. Everything changed that day. From that day, the only thing that I despise, is everything that keeps all people from being united. Maybe that’s why I was so attracted to crypto. No borders, complete interaction with everyone, peer to peer transactions. Peer to peer. People to people.
I forgive everything and everybody
Mr S.

Following the blue line with lower highs but not lower lows. For now this is good. Under normal circumstances I would say to you that a break up is imminent tomorrow, but I cant make this call because of the tensions. Today we had some data coming in which was better than expected, showing a healthy economy, but did not affect the markets (that's how nervous they are). Tomorrow we have important Unemployment and Non farm payrolls data. If they come in better than expected, we go up, but any news on the war front will overshadow this.

If BTC goes below 60017, start dca'ing.