I wrote a Twitter thread on the "empty battlefield" a while ago that I think is relevant here. Given the conditions of modern war, with persistent aerial surveillance and ubiquitous precision weapons, the army that is less visible on the battlefield and which can bring combat power to bear in a stealthier manner is generally going to be more successful.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Georgevich Gerasimov)
US supplied cluster munitions are already being used against civilian targets in Donbass, and already failing to detonate.
The man in this video holds a shaped charge variant of the “DPICM” submunition included in the payload.
As we have previously documented on this channel, this type of submunition composes a small portion of the payload - the majority is made up of fragmentation munitions.
A personal note - I strongly believe that the supply of these munitions to Ukraine is proof positive that both Ukraine and their backers have run short on munitions
That said, given that Ukraine continues to use these newly provided shells even now against civilian targets implies three things.
- There are enough of these shells to, at least on paper, sustain the war effort to a degree which allows wasting them on civilian targets (to diminished efficancy against military targets)
-Ukraine is desperate enough to continue these terror attacks despite being short on munitions.
-Despite the collosal amount of death so far, the National Guard and “Territorial Defense” corpus currently remains intact, either at a functional level or merely a command staff level.
I suspect the latter, but it is quite interesting that men with green arm bands started popping up in almost all videos around the liberation of Artemovsk, and we now hear much updates of TB units in combat over the last few weeks.
To suffice: three symptoms implying the professional and several conscript armies are destroyed, leaving now the national guard remnants to actually fight alongside conscripts instead of purely hiding behind them as a shield.
Terror attacks are almost certain to escalate in frequency as this final barrier cracks apart.
#source
—
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
The man in this video holds a shaped charge variant of the “DPICM” submunition included in the payload.
As we have previously documented on this channel, this type of submunition composes a small portion of the payload - the majority is made up of fragmentation munitions.
A personal note - I strongly believe that the supply of these munitions to Ukraine is proof positive that both Ukraine and their backers have run short on munitions
That said, given that Ukraine continues to use these newly provided shells even now against civilian targets implies three things.
- There are enough of these shells to, at least on paper, sustain the war effort to a degree which allows wasting them on civilian targets (to diminished efficancy against military targets)
-Ukraine is desperate enough to continue these terror attacks despite being short on munitions.
-Despite the collosal amount of death so far, the National Guard and “Territorial Defense” corpus currently remains intact, either at a functional level or merely a command staff level.
I suspect the latter, but it is quite interesting that men with green arm bands started popping up in almost all videos around the liberation of Artemovsk, and we now hear much updates of TB units in combat over the last few weeks.
To suffice: three symptoms implying the professional and several conscript armies are destroyed, leaving now the national guard remnants to actually fight alongside conscripts instead of purely hiding behind them as a shield.
Terror attacks are almost certain to escalate in frequency as this final barrier cracks apart.
#source
—
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
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That's definitely an M42 submunition from a US-design DPICM artillery shell, either M483 or M864. Noteworthy the Turks apparently supplied some M483 shells on top of the M864s donated by the US.
UXO seems to have been recovered from the vicinity of a school, because of course.
UXO seems to have been recovered from the vicinity of a school, because of course.
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"All those decolonized Russia maps coming from Western think tankers are just a joke bro! They're not official! We're not planning to destroy Russia!"
Well, Putin doesn't seem to be taking it that way. What's that the postmodernists always say? "Perception is reality?"
Well, Putin doesn't seem to be taking it that way. What's that the postmodernists always say? "Perception is reality?"
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Why was the UN using a hotel frequented by foreign fighters and Ukrainian military personnel? Were they providing aid and advice to the Ukrainian military or were they being used as human shields? Why did they never report on or object to this inappropriate activity?
And while we're at it, what civilians were being evacuated from Azovstal in May 2022? Was the United Nations coordinating or liaising with the Azov Regiment at the time? What "humanitarian aid" organizations is this UN humanitarian coordinator talking about and what is their overlap in membership with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion?
And while we're at it, what civilians were being evacuated from Azovstal in May 2022? Was the United Nations coordinating or liaising with the Azov Regiment at the time? What "humanitarian aid" organizations is this UN humanitarian coordinator talking about and what is their overlap in membership with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion?
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It occurs to me that those green-packaged Ukrainian MREs seem to have almost entirely dried up on the front line. I hadn't seen them for months until I noticed a bunch in a video that came out today. The AFU seems to have largely regressed to its logistical situation of last summer when they were handing out raw food and civilian canned goods to feed the troops in the field. Now the odd thing is that MREs should be among the easiest military items to source, and there's multiple factories in Europe that should be producing them. Makes me wonder about the status of those factories now.
I'm pretty sure the various NATO armies in Europe are out of field rations by this point anyways, most of those got donated early last year and I doubt they've been replaced. Maybe there's no money for it?
Of course given the average combat lifespan of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line these days it's a wonder they're feeding them at all...
I'm pretty sure the various NATO armies in Europe are out of field rations by this point anyways, most of those got donated early last year and I doubt they've been replaced. Maybe there's no money for it?
Of course given the average combat lifespan of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line these days it's a wonder they're feeding them at all...
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
🇺🇦In Ukraine, all regional military commissars will be fired, Zelensky said following the meeting of the National Security and Defense Council.
"This system should be managed by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery during the war is treason. Warriors who went through the front or cannot be in the trenches because they lost their health, lost limbs, but retained their dignity and do not have cynicism - they can be trusted with this recruitment system," Zelensky said.
Zaluzhny was instructed to choose new military commissars. Before their appointment, the SBU will check them.
🐻 Too much corruption and military commissars were making too much money for not sending people to the front by being bribed,now they will be replaced with someone more willing to send people to the fronts... To the last Ukrainian
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
"This system should be managed by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery during the war is treason. Warriors who went through the front or cannot be in the trenches because they lost their health, lost limbs, but retained their dignity and do not have cynicism - they can be trusted with this recruitment system," Zelensky said.
Zaluzhny was instructed to choose new military commissars. Before their appointment, the SBU will check them.
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So in other news the Ukrainian conscription system apparently just imploded after Zelensky decided to fire the people in charge of running it - and, corruption aside, who have been doing an excellent job at shoveling Ukrainian manpower into uniforms and off to the front - for "corruption." Of course this is nonsensical, corruption is a fact of life in Ukraine and officials cannot be expected to not wet their beaks. They're apparently to be replaced with combat veterans, probably the most fanatical Azov types that can be found.
Most Ukrainian politicians and officials are deeply corrupt as a rule and this situation cannot be news to Zelensky. So corruption is obviously a pretext and there's something deeper going on.
This goes back to my earlier post about the point at which a society at war hits military collapse due to excessive casualties burning through the supply of acceptable military manpower. Ukraine is, right now, entering the national equivalent of hemorrhagic shock from losing a huge amount of its military-aged men, and there are likely few acceptable recruits left. The recruiters are probably not meeting their targets and have not been for some time - hence the radical solution of firing them all in the hopes that more hardened and ideological characters can make the numbers.
Of course there's far more to conscripting people than simply being brutal enough to force the unfit into uniform. It requires real administrative skills that none of these goons will have, which is going to lead to a rapid collapse in intake numbers and will degrade the AFU's fighting power all the quicker.
This has a close historical parallel with the Third Reich, as Hitler increasingly replaced technocrats and (relatively) apolitical soldiers with Nazi zealots in positions of responsibility as the war turned against Germany. It did nothing at all for German war prospects and was generally counterproductive, but they could be counted upon to do exactly what Hitler wanted and brutalize a lot of the right kind of people in the process.
In line with the above this move would tie in directly with recent talk of conducting a national mass mobilization in Ukraine, without regard to age, sex, disability, etc. Simply masses of bodies being driven at the Russian lines in the hopes of staving off what will be a brutal peace by a few more months.
Most Ukrainian politicians and officials are deeply corrupt as a rule and this situation cannot be news to Zelensky. So corruption is obviously a pretext and there's something deeper going on.
This goes back to my earlier post about the point at which a society at war hits military collapse due to excessive casualties burning through the supply of acceptable military manpower. Ukraine is, right now, entering the national equivalent of hemorrhagic shock from losing a huge amount of its military-aged men, and there are likely few acceptable recruits left. The recruiters are probably not meeting their targets and have not been for some time - hence the radical solution of firing them all in the hopes that more hardened and ideological characters can make the numbers.
Of course there's far more to conscripting people than simply being brutal enough to force the unfit into uniform. It requires real administrative skills that none of these goons will have, which is going to lead to a rapid collapse in intake numbers and will degrade the AFU's fighting power all the quicker.
This has a close historical parallel with the Third Reich, as Hitler increasingly replaced technocrats and (relatively) apolitical soldiers with Nazi zealots in positions of responsibility as the war turned against Germany. It did nothing at all for German war prospects and was generally counterproductive, but they could be counted upon to do exactly what Hitler wanted and brutalize a lot of the right kind of people in the process.
In line with the above this move would tie in directly with recent talk of conducting a national mass mobilization in Ukraine, without regard to age, sex, disability, etc. Simply masses of bodies being driven at the Russian lines in the hopes of staving off what will be a brutal peace by a few more months.
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
🇺🇦☠️⚰️Economist: remains of dead Soviet soldiers are exhumed in Lvov for the funeral
In Lvov, it is necessary to exhume the remains of the dead of the Soviet period in order to bury the Ukrainian soldiers, who could not find a place in the cemetery, the Economist reports.
Earlier, the Lvov City Hall reported that the remains of 653 people were exhumed at the memorial cemetery on the Field of Mars, where the graves of fallen soldiers of the First World War and the Soviet period were located. According to the Lvov authorities, the remains are planned to be moved to another cemetery.
The magazine tells about Vitaly Chekovsky, who, along with two colleagues, was buried on August 4 at the Lychakovsky cemetery. According to the newspaper, a few weeks ago someone else was buried in this grave.
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
In Lvov, it is necessary to exhume the remains of the dead of the Soviet period in order to bury the Ukrainian soldiers, who could not find a place in the cemetery, the Economist reports.
Earlier, the Lvov City Hall reported that the remains of 653 people were exhumed at the memorial cemetery on the Field of Mars, where the graves of fallen soldiers of the First World War and the Soviet period were located. According to the Lvov authorities, the remains are planned to be moved to another cemetery.
The magazine tells about Vitaly Chekovsky, who, along with two colleagues, was buried on August 4 at the Lychakovsky cemetery. According to the newspaper, a few weeks ago someone else was buried in this grave.
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The Economist
To bury its dead, Ukraine is having to dig up victims of past wars
In exhuming the bodies, the country also brings its past to the surface
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This suggests the Ukrainians may have cued in on the use of graveyard expansions by analysts as a proxy for AFU casualties. Easy enough to dig up existing ones rather than expand. This would also serve a secondary ideological purpose by physically destroying the memorials of Soviet and Imperial Russian soldiers who seem to be targeted in these latest moves.
I'd like to note that this is literally how you get cursed by the restless dead.
I'd like to note that this is literally how you get cursed by the restless dead.
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