By the way this has very serious implications for American war plans vis-a-vis Russia, China and even regional powers like Iran - we only have something like 5000 JASSMs and substantially more limited numbers of longer-ranged Tomahawks, C-ALCMs, etc. Judging by the extremely limited results the Ukrainians have gotten from throwing most of France and Britain's supply of Storm Shadows at Russia (and frankly the far from crippling results of much larger Russian missile raids on Ukraine), it's likely that hundreds of thousands of standoff missiles will be needed for any major war. This isn't a new realization - look at the difference between what war planners thought was an adequate bomber fleet in 1939 versus what was needed in 1944-45 to actually inflict serious damage.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
@PanzerWaffle analyses Ukrainian losses based on the number of amputees and recipients of prosthetic limbs among the Ukrainian fighters. @Slavyangrad has summarized the low and high estimates based on the calculations suggested by the channel in the chart above.
PART I | PART II
Despite all of Kiev's attempts to conceal the true number of military losses, some data still leaks through the filters of censorship. On August 1, 2023, The Wall Street Journal published a story that offered a minimum and a maximum estimate of the number of AFU servicemen who lost one or more limbs.
Importantly, this estimate is based on data obtained from medical institutions, non-governmental organizations and the German company Ottobock, which manufactures prosthetic limbs.
According to WSJ's estimates, the minimum number of amputees among the Ukrainian fighters since the start of the conflict is 20,000 and the maximum is 50,000. The figures are truly horrifying, and the article's author rightly points out that they exceed the scale of the First World War. However, the author emphasizes that these are estimated figures and that the real figures may be even higher.
...continued below...
@Slavyangrad
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PART I | PART II
Despite all of Kiev's attempts to conceal the true number of military losses, some data still leaks through the filters of censorship. On August 1, 2023, The Wall Street Journal published a story that offered a minimum and a maximum estimate of the number of AFU servicemen who lost one or more limbs.
Importantly, this estimate is based on data obtained from medical institutions, non-governmental organizations and the German company Ottobock, which manufactures prosthetic limbs.
According to WSJ's estimates, the minimum number of amputees among the Ukrainian fighters since the start of the conflict is 20,000 and the maximum is 50,000. The figures are truly horrifying, and the article's author rightly points out that they exceed the scale of the First World War. However, the author emphasizes that these are estimated figures and that the real figures may be even higher.
...continued below...
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
@PanzerWaffle analyses Ukrainian losses based on the number of amputees and recipients of prosthetic limbs among the Ukrainian fighters. @Slavyangrad has summarized the numbers based on the calculations suggests by the channel in the chart above.
PART I | PART II
► Why is this important?
Over the past century and a half, humanity has accumulated and tabulated a huge amount of data on losses in the two World Wars and in dozens of smaller conflicts. The number of soldiers with amputated limbs is an indicator which allows one to estimate the losses of the AFU as a whole.
For France in World War I, for example, this figure was about 2-2.5 percent of the total number of wounded. There is also more recent data. For example, the U.S. lost 7,076 servicemen killed (KIA) and 53,337 wounded (WIA) during the 20 years of the "war on terrorism" in Iraq and Afghanistan. Between 2001 and 2011, 2,037 US troops lost one or more limbs in combat. The total results in a killed-to-wounded ratio of 1 to 7.5 and an amputation rate of 4 percent.
The ratio has increased because the medical evacuation system and field medicine in general have evolved greatly over the last century. A significant number of those wounded in the battles of World War I did not survive to evacuation or hospitalization.
Among the first things that the AFU sought to change to approximate Western standards was the medical evacuation system. So the American figures can be used as a base for the calculations, with the caveat that the conflict in Ukraine is heavily dominated by the artillery, which is reflected in the number of casualties and the nature of injuries.
If we assume that the WSJ's lower estimate of 20,000 amputees represents 4% of all wounded, then 100% of the wounded will be 500,000 people. Applying the traditional one-to-three casualty ratio to the resulting data—since that is what would be typical for an artillery war in the style of WWI and WWII—we get 150-160 thousand killed AFU servicemen.
Thus, the sanitary and irrecoverable losses of Ukrainian armed formations can range from 550 thousand to 650 thousand people, using just the minimum estimated figures.
► Is this estimate realistic?
Quite. It is supported by the number of Ukrainian cemeteries that have grown over the past 17 months (and by their rampant growth), the desperate permanent mobilization in Ukraine, and the noticeably decreased quality of the military personnel. Mobilized men aged 45-50—without a military specialty but with a long list of chronic diseases—have become the norm over the past two months.
The last two criteria—age and quality—are clear indicators of the depletion of mobilization reserves, as well as one of the signs of the growth of another problem—the depletion of the reserve of specialists, without whom modern industrial warfare cannot be conducted.
@Slavyangrad
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PART I | PART II
► Why is this important?
Over the past century and a half, humanity has accumulated and tabulated a huge amount of data on losses in the two World Wars and in dozens of smaller conflicts. The number of soldiers with amputated limbs is an indicator which allows one to estimate the losses of the AFU as a whole.
For France in World War I, for example, this figure was about 2-2.5 percent of the total number of wounded. There is also more recent data. For example, the U.S. lost 7,076 servicemen killed (KIA) and 53,337 wounded (WIA) during the 20 years of the "war on terrorism" in Iraq and Afghanistan. Between 2001 and 2011, 2,037 US troops lost one or more limbs in combat. The total results in a killed-to-wounded ratio of 1 to 7.5 and an amputation rate of 4 percent.
The ratio has increased because the medical evacuation system and field medicine in general have evolved greatly over the last century. A significant number of those wounded in the battles of World War I did not survive to evacuation or hospitalization.
Among the first things that the AFU sought to change to approximate Western standards was the medical evacuation system. So the American figures can be used as a base for the calculations, with the caveat that the conflict in Ukraine is heavily dominated by the artillery, which is reflected in the number of casualties and the nature of injuries.
If we assume that the WSJ's lower estimate of 20,000 amputees represents 4% of all wounded, then 100% of the wounded will be 500,000 people. Applying the traditional one-to-three casualty ratio to the resulting data—since that is what would be typical for an artillery war in the style of WWI and WWII—we get 150-160 thousand killed AFU servicemen.
Thus, the sanitary and irrecoverable losses of Ukrainian armed formations can range from 550 thousand to 650 thousand people, using just the minimum estimated figures.
► Is this estimate realistic?
Quite. It is supported by the number of Ukrainian cemeteries that have grown over the past 17 months (and by their rampant growth), the desperate permanent mobilization in Ukraine, and the noticeably decreased quality of the military personnel. Mobilized men aged 45-50—without a military specialty but with a long list of chronic diseases—have become the norm over the past two months.
The last two criteria—age and quality—are clear indicators of the depletion of mobilization reserves, as well as one of the signs of the growth of another problem—the depletion of the reserve of specialists, without whom modern industrial warfare cannot be conducted.
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Slavyangrad
@PanzerWaffle analyses Ukrainian losses based on the number of amputees and recipients of prosthetic limbs among the Ukrainian fighters. @Slavyangrad has summarized the low and high estimates based on the calculations suggested by the channel in the chart…
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So let's look at the data points we have showing Ukrainian KIA in the 200-400,000 range.
- Population surveys
- Obituary counts on social media
- Cemetery construction
- Amputation disclosures
- Older, inadvertent official disclosures
- Endless conscription but no army growth
It's all completely internally consistent, pointing to the same approximate number of casualties in the 2-400k range. This is exactly what you would expect if that was in fact the case - all these secondary indicators are consistent with each other and there is no countervailing data besides the obvious lies of Ukrainian officials.
Given that Mediazona's count of Russian KIA in the 30,000 range has recently been validated by another inadvertent disclosure on their side (of some 8,500 WIA returned to duty, total, in the entire VDV for the entire SMO) this also points to an absolutely brutal fact: for every Russian soldier killed in this war, somewhere between seven and thirteen Ukrainian soldiers die. That's apocalyptic for the Ukrainian Army and a disgrace for their Western advisors.
This also, by the way, aligns perfectly with the Ukrainian MoD's claims for -Russian- casualties. This suggests strongly that the Ukrainian MoD's infamously implausibly running count of Russian losses is, astonishingly, actually an accurate report of their own losses.
- Population surveys
- Obituary counts on social media
- Cemetery construction
- Amputation disclosures
- Older, inadvertent official disclosures
- Endless conscription but no army growth
It's all completely internally consistent, pointing to the same approximate number of casualties in the 2-400k range. This is exactly what you would expect if that was in fact the case - all these secondary indicators are consistent with each other and there is no countervailing data besides the obvious lies of Ukrainian officials.
Given that Mediazona's count of Russian KIA in the 30,000 range has recently been validated by another inadvertent disclosure on their side (of some 8,500 WIA returned to duty, total, in the entire VDV for the entire SMO) this also points to an absolutely brutal fact: for every Russian soldier killed in this war, somewhere between seven and thirteen Ukrainian soldiers die. That's apocalyptic for the Ukrainian Army and a disgrace for their Western advisors.
This also, by the way, aligns perfectly with the Ukrainian MoD's claims for -Russian- casualties. This suggests strongly that the Ukrainian MoD's infamously implausibly running count of Russian losses is, astonishingly, actually an accurate report of their own losses.
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Forwarded from Cyberspec News (Veles)
Regarding the Russian advance in the Kupyansk direction, I'm hearing that the Russian Force is mainly infantry with Artillery and Aviation support but not many Tanks apparently....so perhaps it's not a full blown offensive
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I wrote a Twitter thread on the "empty battlefield" a while ago that I think is relevant here. Given the conditions of modern war, with persistent aerial surveillance and ubiquitous precision weapons, the army that is less visible on the battlefield and which can bring combat power to bear in a stealthier manner is generally going to be more successful.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Georgevich Gerasimov)
US supplied cluster munitions are already being used against civilian targets in Donbass, and already failing to detonate.
The man in this video holds a shaped charge variant of the “DPICM” submunition included in the payload.
As we have previously documented on this channel, this type of submunition composes a small portion of the payload - the majority is made up of fragmentation munitions.
A personal note - I strongly believe that the supply of these munitions to Ukraine is proof positive that both Ukraine and their backers have run short on munitions
That said, given that Ukraine continues to use these newly provided shells even now against civilian targets implies three things.
- There are enough of these shells to, at least on paper, sustain the war effort to a degree which allows wasting them on civilian targets (to diminished efficancy against military targets)
-Ukraine is desperate enough to continue these terror attacks despite being short on munitions.
-Despite the collosal amount of death so far, the National Guard and “Territorial Defense” corpus currently remains intact, either at a functional level or merely a command staff level.
I suspect the latter, but it is quite interesting that men with green arm bands started popping up in almost all videos around the liberation of Artemovsk, and we now hear much updates of TB units in combat over the last few weeks.
To suffice: three symptoms implying the professional and several conscript armies are destroyed, leaving now the national guard remnants to actually fight alongside conscripts instead of purely hiding behind them as a shield.
Terror attacks are almost certain to escalate in frequency as this final barrier cracks apart.
#source
—
@Slavyangrad
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The man in this video holds a shaped charge variant of the “DPICM” submunition included in the payload.
As we have previously documented on this channel, this type of submunition composes a small portion of the payload - the majority is made up of fragmentation munitions.
A personal note - I strongly believe that the supply of these munitions to Ukraine is proof positive that both Ukraine and their backers have run short on munitions
That said, given that Ukraine continues to use these newly provided shells even now against civilian targets implies three things.
- There are enough of these shells to, at least on paper, sustain the war effort to a degree which allows wasting them on civilian targets (to diminished efficancy against military targets)
-Ukraine is desperate enough to continue these terror attacks despite being short on munitions.
-Despite the collosal amount of death so far, the National Guard and “Territorial Defense” corpus currently remains intact, either at a functional level or merely a command staff level.
I suspect the latter, but it is quite interesting that men with green arm bands started popping up in almost all videos around the liberation of Artemovsk, and we now hear much updates of TB units in combat over the last few weeks.
To suffice: three symptoms implying the professional and several conscript armies are destroyed, leaving now the national guard remnants to actually fight alongside conscripts instead of purely hiding behind them as a shield.
Terror attacks are almost certain to escalate in frequency as this final barrier cracks apart.
#source
—
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
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That's definitely an M42 submunition from a US-design DPICM artillery shell, either M483 or M864. Noteworthy the Turks apparently supplied some M483 shells on top of the M864s donated by the US.
UXO seems to have been recovered from the vicinity of a school, because of course.
UXO seems to have been recovered from the vicinity of a school, because of course.
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"All those decolonized Russia maps coming from Western think tankers are just a joke bro! They're not official! We're not planning to destroy Russia!"
Well, Putin doesn't seem to be taking it that way. What's that the postmodernists always say? "Perception is reality?"
Well, Putin doesn't seem to be taking it that way. What's that the postmodernists always say? "Perception is reality?"
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Why was the UN using a hotel frequented by foreign fighters and Ukrainian military personnel? Were they providing aid and advice to the Ukrainian military or were they being used as human shields? Why did they never report on or object to this inappropriate activity?
And while we're at it, what civilians were being evacuated from Azovstal in May 2022? Was the United Nations coordinating or liaising with the Azov Regiment at the time? What "humanitarian aid" organizations is this UN humanitarian coordinator talking about and what is their overlap in membership with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion?
And while we're at it, what civilians were being evacuated from Azovstal in May 2022? Was the United Nations coordinating or liaising with the Azov Regiment at the time? What "humanitarian aid" organizations is this UN humanitarian coordinator talking about and what is their overlap in membership with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion?
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It occurs to me that those green-packaged Ukrainian MREs seem to have almost entirely dried up on the front line. I hadn't seen them for months until I noticed a bunch in a video that came out today. The AFU seems to have largely regressed to its logistical situation of last summer when they were handing out raw food and civilian canned goods to feed the troops in the field. Now the odd thing is that MREs should be among the easiest military items to source, and there's multiple factories in Europe that should be producing them. Makes me wonder about the status of those factories now.
I'm pretty sure the various NATO armies in Europe are out of field rations by this point anyways, most of those got donated early last year and I doubt they've been replaced. Maybe there's no money for it?
Of course given the average combat lifespan of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line these days it's a wonder they're feeding them at all...
I'm pretty sure the various NATO armies in Europe are out of field rations by this point anyways, most of those got donated early last year and I doubt they've been replaced. Maybe there's no money for it?
Of course given the average combat lifespan of a Ukrainian soldier on the front line these days it's a wonder they're feeding them at all...
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
🇺🇦In Ukraine, all regional military commissars will be fired, Zelensky said following the meeting of the National Security and Defense Council.
"This system should be managed by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery during the war is treason. Warriors who went through the front or cannot be in the trenches because they lost their health, lost limbs, but retained their dignity and do not have cynicism - they can be trusted with this recruitment system," Zelensky said.
Zaluzhny was instructed to choose new military commissars. Before their appointment, the SBU will check them.
🐻 Too much corruption and military commissars were making too much money for not sending people to the front by being bribed,now they will be replaced with someone more willing to send people to the fronts... To the last Ukrainian
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
"This system should be managed by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery during the war is treason. Warriors who went through the front or cannot be in the trenches because they lost their health, lost limbs, but retained their dignity and do not have cynicism - they can be trusted with this recruitment system," Zelensky said.
Zaluzhny was instructed to choose new military commissars. Before their appointment, the SBU will check them.
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So in other news the Ukrainian conscription system apparently just imploded after Zelensky decided to fire the people in charge of running it - and, corruption aside, who have been doing an excellent job at shoveling Ukrainian manpower into uniforms and off to the front - for "corruption." Of course this is nonsensical, corruption is a fact of life in Ukraine and officials cannot be expected to not wet their beaks. They're apparently to be replaced with combat veterans, probably the most fanatical Azov types that can be found.
Most Ukrainian politicians and officials are deeply corrupt as a rule and this situation cannot be news to Zelensky. So corruption is obviously a pretext and there's something deeper going on.
This goes back to my earlier post about the point at which a society at war hits military collapse due to excessive casualties burning through the supply of acceptable military manpower. Ukraine is, right now, entering the national equivalent of hemorrhagic shock from losing a huge amount of its military-aged men, and there are likely few acceptable recruits left. The recruiters are probably not meeting their targets and have not been for some time - hence the radical solution of firing them all in the hopes that more hardened and ideological characters can make the numbers.
Of course there's far more to conscripting people than simply being brutal enough to force the unfit into uniform. It requires real administrative skills that none of these goons will have, which is going to lead to a rapid collapse in intake numbers and will degrade the AFU's fighting power all the quicker.
This has a close historical parallel with the Third Reich, as Hitler increasingly replaced technocrats and (relatively) apolitical soldiers with Nazi zealots in positions of responsibility as the war turned against Germany. It did nothing at all for German war prospects and was generally counterproductive, but they could be counted upon to do exactly what Hitler wanted and brutalize a lot of the right kind of people in the process.
In line with the above this move would tie in directly with recent talk of conducting a national mass mobilization in Ukraine, without regard to age, sex, disability, etc. Simply masses of bodies being driven at the Russian lines in the hopes of staving off what will be a brutal peace by a few more months.
Most Ukrainian politicians and officials are deeply corrupt as a rule and this situation cannot be news to Zelensky. So corruption is obviously a pretext and there's something deeper going on.
This goes back to my earlier post about the point at which a society at war hits military collapse due to excessive casualties burning through the supply of acceptable military manpower. Ukraine is, right now, entering the national equivalent of hemorrhagic shock from losing a huge amount of its military-aged men, and there are likely few acceptable recruits left. The recruiters are probably not meeting their targets and have not been for some time - hence the radical solution of firing them all in the hopes that more hardened and ideological characters can make the numbers.
Of course there's far more to conscripting people than simply being brutal enough to force the unfit into uniform. It requires real administrative skills that none of these goons will have, which is going to lead to a rapid collapse in intake numbers and will degrade the AFU's fighting power all the quicker.
This has a close historical parallel with the Third Reich, as Hitler increasingly replaced technocrats and (relatively) apolitical soldiers with Nazi zealots in positions of responsibility as the war turned against Germany. It did nothing at all for German war prospects and was generally counterproductive, but they could be counted upon to do exactly what Hitler wanted and brutalize a lot of the right kind of people in the process.
In line with the above this move would tie in directly with recent talk of conducting a national mass mobilization in Ukraine, without regard to age, sex, disability, etc. Simply masses of bodies being driven at the Russian lines in the hopes of staving off what will be a brutal peace by a few more months.
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
🇺🇦☠️⚰️Economist: remains of dead Soviet soldiers are exhumed in Lvov for the funeral
In Lvov, it is necessary to exhume the remains of the dead of the Soviet period in order to bury the Ukrainian soldiers, who could not find a place in the cemetery, the Economist reports.
Earlier, the Lvov City Hall reported that the remains of 653 people were exhumed at the memorial cemetery on the Field of Mars, where the graves of fallen soldiers of the First World War and the Soviet period were located. According to the Lvov authorities, the remains are planned to be moved to another cemetery.
The magazine tells about Vitaly Chekovsky, who, along with two colleagues, was buried on August 4 at the Lychakovsky cemetery. According to the newspaper, a few weeks ago someone else was buried in this grave.
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
In Lvov, it is necessary to exhume the remains of the dead of the Soviet period in order to bury the Ukrainian soldiers, who could not find a place in the cemetery, the Economist reports.
Earlier, the Lvov City Hall reported that the remains of 653 people were exhumed at the memorial cemetery on the Field of Mars, where the graves of fallen soldiers of the First World War and the Soviet period were located. According to the Lvov authorities, the remains are planned to be moved to another cemetery.
The magazine tells about Vitaly Chekovsky, who, along with two colleagues, was buried on August 4 at the Lychakovsky cemetery. According to the newspaper, a few weeks ago someone else was buried in this grave.
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The Economist
To bury its dead, Ukraine is having to dig up victims of past wars
In exhuming the bodies, the country also brings its past to the surface
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