Forwarded from DD Geopolitics (Scott)
Russia appears to be solidly across the Seversky Donets near Belgorovka.
This shuts down the main supply route (MSR) into Severodonetsk-Lisichansk and basically unhinges the entire position. Between this move and Nizhyn the AFU's going to be off-roading soon to move in/out.
@armchairW
This shuts down the main supply route (MSR) into Severodonetsk-Lisichansk and basically unhinges the entire position. Between this move and Nizhyn the AFU's going to be off-roading soon to move in/out.
@armchairW
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Forwarded from Intel Slava
🇺🇦⚡ Ukrainian telegram channel
"Our source in the OP said that in the last two weeks we have lost more Bayraktar TB2s than in the entire war. The failure of the operation to storm the Snake island and unsuccessful flights to military facilities in Russia cost us 50 Bayraktar. The Turkish side has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the use of drones, but the General Staff has its own vision on the use of Bayraktar TB2"
"Our source in the OP said that in the last two weeks we have lost more Bayraktar TB2s than in the entire war. The failure of the operation to storm the Snake island and unsuccessful flights to military facilities in Russia cost us 50 Bayraktar. The Turkish side has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the use of drones, but the General Staff has its own vision on the use of Bayraktar TB2"
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics (Scott)
New map as of today, unconfirmed reports that the RF forces took control of Vojevodivka south of Rubizhne. Also reports that the RF forces used a pontoon bridge to cross the Seversky Donets river (illustrated below in blue).
Courtesy of @Denyo666 on twitter
Courtesy of @Denyo666 on twitter
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
The Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine—SitRep by Boris Rozhin (ColonelCassad) @boris_rozhin, as of 23:00 on May 22, 2022
1—Mariupol—The unhurried assault on the Azovstal industrial complex in Mariupol continues. Having lost the slag heap hills (terrikons), the Azov (Ukrainian neo-Nazi National Guard regiment) fighters nonetheless continue holding key buildings in the territory of the complex. These strongpoints are being subjected to air and artillery strikes by the Allied forces, contributing to a stead rise in Azov casualties.
2—Zaporozhye—There have been no changes along the Kamenskoye—Orekhov—Gulyai Pole front line. There are also no appreciable progress along the Gulyai Pole—Velikaya Novoselovka line.
3—Ugledar—There have been no changes along the Novomikhailovka—Ugledar—Velikaya Novoselovka line. Reports indicates heavy fighting in the area of Novomikhailovka.
4—Maryinka—There has been no substantial progress within the limits of the settlement. The fighting continue, as before, in the environs of the coal waste hill (terrikon).
5—Avdeevka—Clashes continue along the Avdeevka—Konstantinovka highway. Reports indicate that the Ukrainian troops have blown up the dam in order to retard the progress of the advancing Allied forces. Fighting is also ongoing near Novobakhmutovka, in the vicinity of Troitskoye.
6—LNR—After the taking of Popasnaya, the Allied forces continue probing the Ukrainian army’s defenses in the direction of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). Clashes also continue near Toshkovka and Voevodovka. The Ukrainian units are being driven further from Rubezhnoye. Heavy fighting is taking place in the vicinity of Belogorovka, where a threat to the communication lines of the Severodonetsk grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has materialized. Both sides are taking losses. Nonetheless, the risk of encirclement of a part of the Donbass military grouping of the Ukrainian army is rising.
7—Izyum—Heavy clashes are continuing near Kurulka and Pashkovo, as well as in the vicinity of Velikaya Kamyshevakha. Near Yampol, the Ukrainian army sustained heave losses and was forced to retreat. The Allied armies are approaching Krasny Lyman (Lyman) from the north-west. The Ukrainian Armed Forces command is rushing reserves to this theatre of the campaign in order to prop up the breaking line of the front.
8—Kharkov—The Ukrainian units are pursuing attacks in the direction of Liptsy and Kazachya Lopan, intending to drive the Allied forces further away from Kharkov. The Ukrainian army has also made progress from Stary Saltov in the direction of Ternovaya, in the vicinity of which fighting is taking place [in reliance on unconfirmed reports, @Rybar has since claimed that Ternovaya has been taken by the Kraken unit of the Azov regiment and other nationalist battalions]. It is evident that the situation in the Kharkov theatre of the campaign requires Russian reinforcements. The Ukrainian Armed Forces units approaching the border increases the threat of shelling of settlements in the territory of the Russian Federation, and it would be difficult to suppress such attacks without controlling the border with the Kharkov region.
9—Nikolayev—There have been no material changes either on the Nikolayev or the Nikopol front. The fighting here has positional character.
10—Odessa—Without significant changes. After taking serious losses, the Ukrainian army has ceased its attempts to land on the Zmeiny island. According to several sources, there were foreign military advisors among those who died on the island. The grandiose plans of taking the Zmeiny island in time for the May 9th celebration yielded no results.
1—Mariupol—The unhurried assault on the Azovstal industrial complex in Mariupol continues. Having lost the slag heap hills (terrikons), the Azov (Ukrainian neo-Nazi National Guard regiment) fighters nonetheless continue holding key buildings in the territory of the complex. These strongpoints are being subjected to air and artillery strikes by the Allied forces, contributing to a stead rise in Azov casualties.
2—Zaporozhye—There have been no changes along the Kamenskoye—Orekhov—Gulyai Pole front line. There are also no appreciable progress along the Gulyai Pole—Velikaya Novoselovka line.
3—Ugledar—There have been no changes along the Novomikhailovka—Ugledar—Velikaya Novoselovka line. Reports indicates heavy fighting in the area of Novomikhailovka.
4—Maryinka—There has been no substantial progress within the limits of the settlement. The fighting continue, as before, in the environs of the coal waste hill (terrikon).
5—Avdeevka—Clashes continue along the Avdeevka—Konstantinovka highway. Reports indicate that the Ukrainian troops have blown up the dam in order to retard the progress of the advancing Allied forces. Fighting is also ongoing near Novobakhmutovka, in the vicinity of Troitskoye.
6—LNR—After the taking of Popasnaya, the Allied forces continue probing the Ukrainian army’s defenses in the direction of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). Clashes also continue near Toshkovka and Voevodovka. The Ukrainian units are being driven further from Rubezhnoye. Heavy fighting is taking place in the vicinity of Belogorovka, where a threat to the communication lines of the Severodonetsk grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has materialized. Both sides are taking losses. Nonetheless, the risk of encirclement of a part of the Donbass military grouping of the Ukrainian army is rising.
7—Izyum—Heavy clashes are continuing near Kurulka and Pashkovo, as well as in the vicinity of Velikaya Kamyshevakha. Near Yampol, the Ukrainian army sustained heave losses and was forced to retreat. The Allied armies are approaching Krasny Lyman (Lyman) from the north-west. The Ukrainian Armed Forces command is rushing reserves to this theatre of the campaign in order to prop up the breaking line of the front.
8—Kharkov—The Ukrainian units are pursuing attacks in the direction of Liptsy and Kazachya Lopan, intending to drive the Allied forces further away from Kharkov. The Ukrainian army has also made progress from Stary Saltov in the direction of Ternovaya, in the vicinity of which fighting is taking place [in reliance on unconfirmed reports, @Rybar has since claimed that Ternovaya has been taken by the Kraken unit of the Azov regiment and other nationalist battalions]. It is evident that the situation in the Kharkov theatre of the campaign requires Russian reinforcements. The Ukrainian Armed Forces units approaching the border increases the threat of shelling of settlements in the territory of the Russian Federation, and it would be difficult to suppress such attacks without controlling the border with the Kharkov region.
9—Nikolayev—There have been no material changes either on the Nikolayev or the Nikopol front. The fighting here has positional character.
10—Odessa—Without significant changes. After taking serious losses, the Ukrainian army has ceased its attempts to land on the Zmeiny island. According to several sources, there were foreign military advisors among those who died on the island. The grandiose plans of taking the Zmeiny island in time for the May 9th celebration yielded no results.
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Latest maps of the Donbass front line. Notice Belgorovka under Russian control.
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Apparently the Ukrainian General Staff has now confirmed a successful river crossing.
I get a lot of flak for my predictions but I'm usually way ahead of brOSINT lol.
I get a lot of flak for my predictions but I'm usually way ahead of brOSINT lol.
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They claim heavy Russian casualties (and if photos are anything to go by they're right) but losing a significant part of a battalion to force a breach is normal and to be expected from my experience.
The operation continues.
The operation continues.
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I'll probably write a note tonight on brOSINT's cardinal sins - overinterpretation, credulity towards unreliable sources, and confirmation bias. It was on full display today.
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This probably indicates the Ukrainian "offensive" on Izyum is over, and they're moving troops to prevent an outright collapse deeper in the Donbass.
Also this isn't much of a reconstitution for a brigade-size element. This unit may very well have taken 60-70% casualties thus far and lost all/almost all of its tanks.
Also this isn't much of a reconstitution for a brigade-size element. This unit may very well have taken 60-70% casualties thus far and lost all/almost all of its tanks.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
@Rybar Report: Regrouping of the Ukrainian Forces in the Izyum Theatre of the Conflict.
1—In light of the difficult situation (https://t.me/rybar/32558) facing the Ukrainian units in Donbass, the Ukrainian command has decided to transfer part of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, until now deployed in the vicinity of the Seversky Donets river.
2—An unknown number of fighters and quantity equipment of the 14th Brigade will be brought via railroad during nighttime to the Soledar area (Map #1) for the purpose of reinforcing the Ukrainian grouping of forces in Donbass.
3—Several of the 14th Brigade units will remain around Zavgorodneye (Map #2) and will be transferred to the command of the Ukrainian 4th Separate Tank Brigade, reinforced with 10 additional tanks and 300 servicemen of the territorial defence (https://t.me/rybar/32533).
4—It is likely that the plan of the offensive aimed at the flank of the Russian forces’ grouping near Izyum will also have to be adjusted. An option being considered includes
1—In light of the difficult situation (https://t.me/rybar/32558) facing the Ukrainian units in Donbass, the Ukrainian command has decided to transfer part of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, until now deployed in the vicinity of the Seversky Donets river.
2—An unknown number of fighters and quantity equipment of the 14th Brigade will be brought via railroad during nighttime to the Soledar area (Map #1) for the purpose of reinforcing the Ukrainian grouping of forces in Donbass.
3—Several of the 14th Brigade units will remain around Zavgorodneye (Map #2) and will be transferred to the command of the Ukrainian 4th Separate Tank Brigade, reinforced with 10 additional tanks and 300 servicemen of the territorial defence (https://t.me/rybar/32533).
4—It is likely that the plan of the offensive aimed at the flank of the Russian forces’ grouping near Izyum will also have to be adjusted. An option being considered includes
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Forwarded from Masno
The Allied Forces Offensive from Popasnaya: After the taking of Popasnaya, the Allied forces have commenced offensives in two directions simultaneously—eastwards, aiming, as expected, at Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and northwards, targeting Kamyshevakha.
The goal is to split the forming Donbass Cauldron into two—the western Slavayansk-Kramatorsk operational area and the rapidly-forming eastern Severodonetsk cauldron that would include, among others, Troitskoye, Gorskoye, Lisichansk, and Seversk—and to prevent the withdrawal of troops in the latter to the more defensible positions at Artyomovsk and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.
The goal is to split the forming Donbass Cauldron into two—the western Slavayansk-Kramatorsk operational area and the rapidly-forming eastern Severodonetsk cauldron that would include, among others, Troitskoye, Gorskoye, Lisichansk, and Seversk—and to prevent the withdrawal of troops in the latter to the more defensible positions at Artyomovsk and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
Ukrainian Material Fatigue: I will again repost this very instructive analysis from @Zornkrieger, with my very modest interjection, and pin it. A very useful statement—it behooves referring back to it from time to time.
@Zornkrieger
The resistance is reducing. The first 2 weeks we saw which defensible positions were defensible and which ones were not. Since then, a stalemate for the most part on the Donbas fortifications. Depreciated units always work the best on the defensive. Obviously. You can’t attack with 40% casualties but you sure as hell can defend, just not as well. Now we’re seeing the “Stalingrad” of the Donbas fall when most expectations would have optimistically put it at another month not factoring in combat losses.
It’s also why you didn’t see the Izyum bridgehead collapse when the Ukrainians threw every last reserve at it
It’s also why the Mariupol battle went from prolonged stalemate fighting to within 2 weeks the entire city was captured aside from Azovstal. It’s always exponential.
@Slavyangrad
It always catches people who do not understand military or engineering unawares. There is such a concept as material fatigue. Everything seems fine, until it is not, and you have a catastrophe on your hands.
@Zornkrieger
It’s not about the willingness to fight it’s about the ability to fight. It’s the reason why schools are opening in Mariupol while there’s still active enemies within the city.
@Zornkrieger
The resistance is reducing. The first 2 weeks we saw which defensible positions were defensible and which ones were not. Since then, a stalemate for the most part on the Donbas fortifications. Depreciated units always work the best on the defensive. Obviously. You can’t attack with 40% casualties but you sure as hell can defend, just not as well. Now we’re seeing the “Stalingrad” of the Donbas fall when most expectations would have optimistically put it at another month not factoring in combat losses.
It’s also why you didn’t see the Izyum bridgehead collapse when the Ukrainians threw every last reserve at it
It’s also why the Mariupol battle went from prolonged stalemate fighting to within 2 weeks the entire city was captured aside from Azovstal. It’s always exponential.
@Slavyangrad
It always catches people who do not understand military or engineering unawares. There is such a concept as material fatigue. Everything seems fine, until it is not, and you have a catastrophe on your hands.
@Zornkrieger
It’s not about the willingness to fight it’s about the ability to fight. It’s the reason why schools are opening in Mariupol while there’s still active enemies within the city.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
Severodonetsk Update (by @Boris_Rozhin, ColonelCassad)
1—The Ukrainian forces suffered a defeat in their attempts to retain control of Voevodovka. In retreating, they blew up the bridge between Rubezhnoye and Severodonetsk. [Map #1]
2—The battle for Belogorovka continues. The main supply route running from Soledar to Lisichansk is under the firing control and shelling by the Allied forces. The movement of automobile traffic along this highway is unsafe. The Ukrainian forces continue their shelling of the river crossing near Belogorovka. [Map #2]
3—The Allied forces are developing an offensive to the north of Popasnaya, in the direction of Kamyshevakha, and also probing the Ukrainian defensive lines in the direction of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). [Map #3]
4—Fighting for control of Orekhovo and Toshkovo is currently ongoing. [Map #4]
5—Clashes are taking place on the outskirts of Severodonetsk. [Map #5]
6—The battle for control of Privolye has also started. [Map #5]
1—The Ukrainian forces suffered a defeat in their attempts to retain control of Voevodovka. In retreating, they blew up the bridge between Rubezhnoye and Severodonetsk. [Map #1]
2—The battle for Belogorovka continues. The main supply route running from Soledar to Lisichansk is under the firing control and shelling by the Allied forces. The movement of automobile traffic along this highway is unsafe. The Ukrainian forces continue their shelling of the river crossing near Belogorovka. [Map #2]
3—The Allied forces are developing an offensive to the north of Popasnaya, in the direction of Kamyshevakha, and also probing the Ukrainian defensive lines in the direction of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). [Map #3]
4—Fighting for control of Orekhovo and Toshkovo is currently ongoing. [Map #4]
5—Clashes are taking place on the outskirts of Severodonetsk. [Map #5]
6—The battle for control of Privolye has also started. [Map #5]
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