Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

At the same time, as the Russians capture territories in the east, and consolidate their control over the seized cities of Mariupol and Kherson, the bargaining position of the Ukrainian government is being weakened by acute disparity in the numbers of prisoners being held by each side.

The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity, the figure enlarged by the surrender of 2,500, including members of the Azov Battalion, in Mariupol.
Two Britons, Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, who were captured serving with Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are on trial in the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, where prosecutors say they face the death penalty for “terrorism” and being mercenaries.
The difference in numbers between the two sides is being revealed as both Kyiv and Moscow hold highly-publicised trials of prisoners of war.

Ukrainian courts in Kyiv and near Kharkiv have convicted Russian soldiers on war crimes charges, handing out lengthy sentences. Iryna Venediktova, the country’s prosecutor general, said on Wednesday she has filed eight more cases.
Russian state media announced on Wednesday that more than 1,000 Mariupol prisoners have been transferred to Russia for “investigation.” Politicians in Moscow and the separatist republics have threatened to carry out “Nuremberg-type” trials of the Azov prisoners who they accuse of being neo-Nazis.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, making a visit to the frontline in Donbas on Monday, demanded the Kremlin hand over the Mariupol prisoners. Negotiations are ongoing, he said, but “they are unfortunately in the hands of the Russian Federation, which cannot be trusted”.
“We are, of course, very grateful to our allies for their support,” said one Ukrainian official. “The new weapons are welcome, but when they announce they are sending military aid to Ukraine, the Western government should perhaps clarify to their public the quantities involved.”

Reporting on the ground backs up claims of rising Ukrainian losses due to Russian firepower. The Independent last week witnessed losses being inflicted on the Ukrainian military and the lack of long-range firepower to fight back; one soldier interviewed in Lysychansk has since been killed and another three injured.

The intelligence report states: “It is plain that a conventional war cannot be won if your side has several times fewer weapons, your weapons hit the enemy at a shorter distance and you have significantly less ammunition than the enemy.”

It continues: “The tactical situation on the Eastern front is as follows… the Ukrainian side has almost completely run out of stocks of missiles for MLRS of Smerch and Uragan types, which made it possible to effectively deter Russian offensives in the first months of the war at distances of [37 to 50 miles].

“Today, the maximum range of fire of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is [15.5 miles]. This is the range at which 152/155mm calibre artillery and the Grad MLRS units remaining in service can fire.”

UK government apparently happy to complain to the Ukrainians rather than actually doing something substantive about the situation.

Pushilin: the British authorities did not contact me or the law enforcement agencies of the DPR about the fate of the convicted mercenaries, one gets the feeling that neither Britain nor Morocco is interested in the fate of the convicted

After a breakthrough to the north of Novoluganskoye and the Uglegorskaya TPS, the Allied forces took control of Semigorye and Vershina, officially consecrating the newest cauldron containing Ukrainian troops.

Vrubovka is taken. Gorskoye-Zolotoye cauldron shut. Second cauldron today.

Several reports coming in that Russian forces have overwhelmed Ukrainian defences in Dolina. No visual confirmation yet. In any case, they'll have to clear the Holy Mountains National Park before advancing on Slavyansk, reportedly there are significant Ukrainian forces there.

@RWA

Wagner took control of the last settlement of Semigorye in the evening, thereby surrounding the AFU grouping at the Uglegorsk TPP and in Novolugansk.

@rybar report for June 14

- Fighting continues in the area near Rubizhne and Verkhniy Saltov in the north of the Kharkiv region.
- Russian units hinder attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cross the Seversky Donets.
-The parties are actively engaged in artillery duels.

- The Russian Armed Forces launched strikes on Zolochev, where the Ukrainian command has been transferring reinforcements in recent weeks.

Continued in the next post...

In the Donbass, allied forces are actively pushing through the enemy's defenses.

- In the Slavyansk direction, units of the 20th Army of the RF Armed Forces have finally established control over the settlement of Dolyna, fighting continues near Bogorodichnoye and Krasnopolye.
- After the occupation of the villages of Roty and Vozrozhdenie, the Wagner PMC units continued their offensive towards the village of Vershina.
At night, there were reports of the capture of Semigorye: in this case, the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the Uglegorsk TPP and Novolugansk would be completely surrounded.
- In the Soledar direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to defend the Yakovlevka-Berestovoe-Nikolaevka line.
- In Severodonetsk, fighting is underway in the northern part of the industrial zone of the Azot plant, where there are up to 2.5 thousand military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries. The Russian Armed Forces declared their readiness to evacuate civilians from the territory of the enterprise, who are being held by Ukrainian formations.
- At ​​night, there were reports that Vrubovka was under the control of the Allied Forces, which means the operational encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Gorskoye and Zolote.
- Fighting continues east and south of Avdeevka, as well as on the southern outskirts of 'New York'.
Ukrainian troops are again inflicting massive artillery strikes on the cities of the DPR.

Continued in the next post...

In the Zaporozhye region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively preparing for a possible offensive from the Russian army.

- Ukrainian formations are equipping structures and firing points in the settlements of Novoselovka, Vishnevoe and Andreevka.
- In the middle of the month, the arrival of personnel and equipment of the 44th brigade from the Zhytomyr region with artillery mounts and howitzers of Western production is planned.

- Artillery duels continue in the Krivoy Rog direction.

1,000 men lost every day in Donbass alone: Ukrainian officials’ admissions of military catastrophe keep getting closer to truth, though not quite there yet.

Davyd Arakhamia, advisor to Ukrainian Minister of Defence: Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.

Link to full article: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia

🇷🇺🇺🇦
"P. Derzhavin" (Bukov class - Project 22160) large patrol boat with TOR-2MKM added in back at #Sevastopol
Interestingly, the Navy has canceled an order for 6 more such ships as they're not happy with their performance

There are a number of reports that Ukrainian positions have been breached north of Svetlodarsk, and the Liberation Forces are making a push towards Zaitsevo. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun evacuation from Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

I'll be on Viva Frei's channel in about twenty minutes, talking the war: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypRT-t7eNPk

Lisichansk Cauldron Update:

1—the Allied troops are reported to have constructed pontoon crossings near Shepilovo and Privolye and traversed Seversky Donetsk;

2—yesterday (June 27), several columns of Ukrainian troops attempting to break to Seversk through Verkhnekamenka were crushed by Allied artillery;

3—today, Ukrainian troops changed their tactic and have been attempting to fight their way through Allied artillery barrage to Belogorovka;

4—Ukrainian reserve units have been taken out of Novodruzhevka, Privolye, and Shepilovo, and transferred to Seversk, with very few still remaining behind;

5—there are reports of Ukrainian reinforcements totalling 5-7k troops arriving from Kramatorsk to Seversk—they have taken up positions on the outskirts of the town [GB: This suggests that, contrary to my prognosis, the Ukrainians have decided to stand ground in the far less defensible Seversk, rather than withdrawing further to the significantly more fortified Soledar-Pokrovsk-Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) urban triangle, though it could also be that the reinforcements were brought in to cover the retreat of the Lisichansk garrison];

6—there is hope that the path from Lisichansk to Seversk passing through Belogorovka and Serebryanka will imminently be taken under artillery fire control by the Allied troops, cutting off the last remaining tenuous escape path out of the Lisichansk Cauldron;

7—in Lisichansk itself, fighting is taking place within city limits, at the football stadium. The Allied forces are moving westwards through the city.

8—reports of the fall of the Lisichansk oil refinery are likely somewhat premature, though definitely not impossible. As of approximately three hours ago, the Allied forces were still engaged in a fierce clashes with the Ukrainian troops for control of the oil refinery, Verkhnekamenka, and Maloryazantsevo;

9—as of about 4 hours ago, the Ukrainian Terrorist forces opened significant artillery fire from their positions at the Lisichansk oil refinery and struck the residential area is Lisichansk—staying perfectly true to their terrorist tactics.

(maps of locations provided below)