What happens when the psyop takes on a life of its own.

“How much do we really know about how Ukraine is doing?” said Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence official. “Can you find a person who will tell you with confidence how many troops has Ukraine lost, how many pieces of equipment has Ukraine lost?”

With respect to casualty numbers, the only reasonable way to go here is by way of extrapolation.

DNR: 1,925 KIA, 7,969 WIA
LNR: although the primary fighting is now taking place in the Lugansk area of responsibility, Mariupol evens out the score, so I would put them at about the same—2,000/8,000.

Russia: this one is more difficult. It would be easiest simply to double up the number of DNR, but given the last official numbers published by the Russian MOD, it does not quite work. I would conservatively estimate the losses at 4,500/10,000

Altogether then, we have an estimate of 8,500 KIA and 26,000 WIA for the Allied forces as a whole, for the whole campaign.

Many of you will disagree—putting losses as either lower or higher, depending on your viewpoint, but I will stick by my estimates.

Insane skills of Russian pilots on display. Ukrop positions getting decimated by Russian Aviation while the aircrafts assistance systems keep telling the pilot “stinger attacking from right side” “stinger attacking from left side” “attack from right side” nonstop.

Notice the CCIP indicator the pilot is aiming at.

"Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance."

The article goes on about strugles with desertion with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”
...
"The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity..."

What's up Western media? You OK?

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

At the same time, as the Russians capture territories in the east, and consolidate their control over the seized cities of Mariupol and Kherson, the bargaining position of the Ukrainian government is being weakened by acute disparity in the numbers of prisoners being held by each side.

The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity, the figure enlarged by the surrender of 2,500, including members of the Azov Battalion, in Mariupol.
Two Britons, Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, who were captured serving with Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are on trial in the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, where prosecutors say they face the death penalty for “terrorism” and being mercenaries.
The difference in numbers between the two sides is being revealed as both Kyiv and Moscow hold highly-publicised trials of prisoners of war.

Ukrainian courts in Kyiv and near Kharkiv have convicted Russian soldiers on war crimes charges, handing out lengthy sentences. Iryna Venediktova, the country’s prosecutor general, said on Wednesday she has filed eight more cases.
Russian state media announced on Wednesday that more than 1,000 Mariupol prisoners have been transferred to Russia for “investigation.” Politicians in Moscow and the separatist republics have threatened to carry out “Nuremberg-type” trials of the Azov prisoners who they accuse of being neo-Nazis.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, making a visit to the frontline in Donbas on Monday, demanded the Kremlin hand over the Mariupol prisoners. Negotiations are ongoing, he said, but “they are unfortunately in the hands of the Russian Federation, which cannot be trusted”.
“We are, of course, very grateful to our allies for their support,” said one Ukrainian official. “The new weapons are welcome, but when they announce they are sending military aid to Ukraine, the Western government should perhaps clarify to their public the quantities involved.”

Reporting on the ground backs up claims of rising Ukrainian losses due to Russian firepower. The Independent last week witnessed losses being inflicted on the Ukrainian military and the lack of long-range firepower to fight back; one soldier interviewed in Lysychansk has since been killed and another three injured.

The intelligence report states: “It is plain that a conventional war cannot be won if your side has several times fewer weapons, your weapons hit the enemy at a shorter distance and you have significantly less ammunition than the enemy.”

It continues: “The tactical situation on the Eastern front is as follows… the Ukrainian side has almost completely run out of stocks of missiles for MLRS of Smerch and Uragan types, which made it possible to effectively deter Russian offensives in the first months of the war at distances of [37 to 50 miles].

“Today, the maximum range of fire of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is [15.5 miles]. This is the range at which 152/155mm calibre artillery and the Grad MLRS units remaining in service can fire.”

UK government apparently happy to complain to the Ukrainians rather than actually doing something substantive about the situation.

Pushilin: the British authorities did not contact me or the law enforcement agencies of the DPR about the fate of the convicted mercenaries, one gets the feeling that neither Britain nor Morocco is interested in the fate of the convicted

After a breakthrough to the north of Novoluganskoye and the Uglegorskaya TPS, the Allied forces took control of Semigorye and Vershina, officially consecrating the newest cauldron containing Ukrainian troops.

Vrubovka is taken. Gorskoye-Zolotoye cauldron shut. Second cauldron today.

Several reports coming in that Russian forces have overwhelmed Ukrainian defences in Dolina. No visual confirmation yet. In any case, they'll have to clear the Holy Mountains National Park before advancing on Slavyansk, reportedly there are significant Ukrainian forces there.

@RWA

Wagner took control of the last settlement of Semigorye in the evening, thereby surrounding the AFU grouping at the Uglegorsk TPP and in Novolugansk.

@rybar report for June 14

- Fighting continues in the area near Rubizhne and Verkhniy Saltov in the north of the Kharkiv region.
- Russian units hinder attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cross the Seversky Donets.
-The parties are actively engaged in artillery duels.

- The Russian Armed Forces launched strikes on Zolochev, where the Ukrainian command has been transferring reinforcements in recent weeks.

Continued in the next post...

In the Donbass, allied forces are actively pushing through the enemy's defenses.

- In the Slavyansk direction, units of the 20th Army of the RF Armed Forces have finally established control over the settlement of Dolyna, fighting continues near Bogorodichnoye and Krasnopolye.
- After the occupation of the villages of Roty and Vozrozhdenie, the Wagner PMC units continued their offensive towards the village of Vershina.
At night, there were reports of the capture of Semigorye: in this case, the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the Uglegorsk TPP and Novolugansk would be completely surrounded.
- In the Soledar direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to defend the Yakovlevka-Berestovoe-Nikolaevka line.
- In Severodonetsk, fighting is underway in the northern part of the industrial zone of the Azot plant, where there are up to 2.5 thousand military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries. The Russian Armed Forces declared their readiness to evacuate civilians from the territory of the enterprise, who are being held by Ukrainian formations.
- At ​​night, there were reports that Vrubovka was under the control of the Allied Forces, which means the operational encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Gorskoye and Zolote.
- Fighting continues east and south of Avdeevka, as well as on the southern outskirts of 'New York'.
Ukrainian troops are again inflicting massive artillery strikes on the cities of the DPR.

Continued in the next post...

In the Zaporozhye region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively preparing for a possible offensive from the Russian army.

- Ukrainian formations are equipping structures and firing points in the settlements of Novoselovka, Vishnevoe and Andreevka.
- In the middle of the month, the arrival of personnel and equipment of the 44th brigade from the Zhytomyr region with artillery mounts and howitzers of Western production is planned.

- Artillery duels continue in the Krivoy Rog direction.