Gleb is having fun here, but this is a very serious matter if this is the start of a Russian push on Kharkov from the south. I've seen some mild indications of this recently, and it's a logical line of attack.

“To the south [of Kharkov], between Chuguev and Balakleya—fog of war” (c) Vladislav Ugolny

Ooooo-oooooo…

[I am just having fun, though he did write that.]

Donbass offensive: situation in eastern Ukraine by the end of June 7, 2022

▪️Fighting continues in the north of Kharkiv region.

➖ Fighting is going on in Tsupovka, near Velyki Prokhody, in Rubizhne and Ternova.
➖ In Dementievka, a unit of the 92nd AFU brigade is blocked.
➖ The Russian Armed Forces attacked AFU positions in Odnorobivka, Korotych, Basovo, Ivashki, Cherkaskiye Tishki and Kharkiv itself.

▪️Allied forces continue to press the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass.

➖ Sviatogorsk has been completely liberated. There have been no battles on the territory of Sviatogorsk Lavra between the Russian Armed Forces and the AFU, and there are no military units on the territory of the complex. It is most likely that an agreement was reached between the warring parties on the preservation of the shrine. This is indirectly evidenced by the Ukrainian accusations against the mayor of Sviatogorsk of "switching to the side of the occupants.

➖ Units of the 20th Army of the Russian Armed Forces advancing from Izyum have reached the outskirts of Bohorodychne and are fighting for the settlement. At the same time, the buffer zone on the M03 highway is expanding: there are battles for Dolina and Krasnopolye in the forest belt.

➖ Some servicemen of the 115th AFU brigade retreated from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk. In the city, pockets of resistance remain in the industrial zone near the Azot plant: units of the 81 Airmobile Brigade together with mercenaries of the International Legion of Territorial Defense are holding their ground there. Russian Armed Forces units are successfully fighting north of Borovskoye, pushing back the AFU from the forested areas to the territory of the airfield and the village.

➖ Near Popasna, the enemy continues to redeploy mobilized servicemen to the frontline north of Kamyshevakha. Fierce fighting continues on the lines of Yakovlevka - Bilohorivka - Berestove - Mykolaivka. To the south, fighting continues for Novoluganskoye and the Uglegorsk thermal power plant.

➖ Ukrainian reinforcements moved to Avdiivka.

➖ DNR units are fighting for the southern outskirts of New York.

▪️The Ukrainian armed forces are preparing for a counterattack in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

➖ Assault groups of the 81 Brigade of the AFU are concentrating in Huliaiypole and preparing to attack Marfopil from two directions to expand the security zone.

➖ The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched strikes on Russian Armed Forces positions near Piatykhatky. In response, the 128 AFU Brigade's concentration areas in Kamyanske and Shcherbaki were hit.

➖ Foreign mercenaries were spotted near Novoandriivka.

Battle for Severodonetsk: situation as of 11.30 June 8, 2022

▪️The units of the 79th brigade and 10th brigade, located on the outskirts of Severodonetsk in Sirotino, are asked to give the command to retreat from the leadership because of the threat of being surrounded.

▪️Part of the servicemen of the 115th ombr retreated to Lisichansk in small groups.

Earlier, units of the 79th Specialized Brigade and 10th Specialized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as 111 territorial defense brigades, departed to Lysichansk in unorganized groups. The flight was stopped by the transfer of units of foreign mercenaries to Severodonetsk, led by People's Deputy Maryana Bezugly. Foreign mercenaries acted as a detachment and were able to stop the collapse of the defense.

▪️The RF Armed Forces are fighting in the industrial zone near the Azot plant: units of the 81st OAembr are holding the defense there together with mercenaries of the International Legion of Territorial Defense.

▪️Units of the RF Armed Forces are conducting successful battles north of Borovsky, pushing the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of the forests to the territory of the airfield and the village.

What happens when the psyop takes on a life of its own.

“How much do we really know about how Ukraine is doing?” said Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence official. “Can you find a person who will tell you with confidence how many troops has Ukraine lost, how many pieces of equipment has Ukraine lost?”

With respect to casualty numbers, the only reasonable way to go here is by way of extrapolation.

DNR: 1,925 KIA, 7,969 WIA
LNR: although the primary fighting is now taking place in the Lugansk area of responsibility, Mariupol evens out the score, so I would put them at about the same—2,000/8,000.

Russia: this one is more difficult. It would be easiest simply to double up the number of DNR, but given the last official numbers published by the Russian MOD, it does not quite work. I would conservatively estimate the losses at 4,500/10,000

Altogether then, we have an estimate of 8,500 KIA and 26,000 WIA for the Allied forces as a whole, for the whole campaign.

Many of you will disagree—putting losses as either lower or higher, depending on your viewpoint, but I will stick by my estimates.

Insane skills of Russian pilots on display. Ukrop positions getting decimated by Russian Aviation while the aircrafts assistance systems keep telling the pilot “stinger attacking from right side” “stinger attacking from left side” “attack from right side” nonstop.

Notice the CCIP indicator the pilot is aiming at.

"Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance."

The article goes on about strugles with desertion with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”
...
"The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity..."

What's up Western media? You OK?

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

At the same time, as the Russians capture territories in the east, and consolidate their control over the seized cities of Mariupol and Kherson, the bargaining position of the Ukrainian government is being weakened by acute disparity in the numbers of prisoners being held by each side.

The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity, the figure enlarged by the surrender of 2,500, including members of the Azov Battalion, in Mariupol.
Two Britons, Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, who were captured serving with Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are on trial in the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, where prosecutors say they face the death penalty for “terrorism” and being mercenaries.
The difference in numbers between the two sides is being revealed as both Kyiv and Moscow hold highly-publicised trials of prisoners of war.

Ukrainian courts in Kyiv and near Kharkiv have convicted Russian soldiers on war crimes charges, handing out lengthy sentences. Iryna Venediktova, the country’s prosecutor general, said on Wednesday she has filed eight more cases.
Russian state media announced on Wednesday that more than 1,000 Mariupol prisoners have been transferred to Russia for “investigation.” Politicians in Moscow and the separatist republics have threatened to carry out “Nuremberg-type” trials of the Azov prisoners who they accuse of being neo-Nazis.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, making a visit to the frontline in Donbas on Monday, demanded the Kremlin hand over the Mariupol prisoners. Negotiations are ongoing, he said, but “they are unfortunately in the hands of the Russian Federation, which cannot be trusted”.
“We are, of course, very grateful to our allies for their support,” said one Ukrainian official. “The new weapons are welcome, but when they announce they are sending military aid to Ukraine, the Western government should perhaps clarify to their public the quantities involved.”

Reporting on the ground backs up claims of rising Ukrainian losses due to Russian firepower. The Independent last week witnessed losses being inflicted on the Ukrainian military and the lack of long-range firepower to fight back; one soldier interviewed in Lysychansk has since been killed and another three injured.

The intelligence report states: “It is plain that a conventional war cannot be won if your side has several times fewer weapons, your weapons hit the enemy at a shorter distance and you have significantly less ammunition than the enemy.”

It continues: “The tactical situation on the Eastern front is as follows… the Ukrainian side has almost completely run out of stocks of missiles for MLRS of Smerch and Uragan types, which made it possible to effectively deter Russian offensives in the first months of the war at distances of [37 to 50 miles].

“Today, the maximum range of fire of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is [15.5 miles]. This is the range at which 152/155mm calibre artillery and the Grad MLRS units remaining in service can fire.”

UK government apparently happy to complain to the Ukrainians rather than actually doing something substantive about the situation.

Pushilin: the British authorities did not contact me or the law enforcement agencies of the DPR about the fate of the convicted mercenaries, one gets the feeling that neither Britain nor Morocco is interested in the fate of the convicted

After a breakthrough to the north of Novoluganskoye and the Uglegorskaya TPS, the Allied forces took control of Semigorye and Vershina, officially consecrating the newest cauldron containing Ukrainian troops.

Vrubovka is taken. Gorskoye-Zolotoye cauldron shut. Second cauldron today.

Several reports coming in that Russian forces have overwhelmed Ukrainian defences in Dolina. No visual confirmation yet. In any case, they'll have to clear the Holy Mountains National Park before advancing on Slavyansk, reportedly there are significant Ukrainian forces there.

@RWA

Wagner took control of the last settlement of Semigorye in the evening, thereby surrounding the AFU grouping at the Uglegorsk TPP and in Novolugansk.