If anyone's curious about the channel name, Vampire Six was my old callsign.
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Yes, I actually went down to the the 1st Armored Division's commo shop and had them change my company's callsign to Vampire. Six is the traditional US designation for the commander.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
The Severodonetsk Cauldron Update—Vladislav Ugolny SitRep, May 8, 2022
1—The ambassador of LNR (Lugansk People’s Republic) to Russia has reported about the withdrawal of a Ukrainian brigade from Lisichansk and the clashes in Belogorovka, Shipilovka, and Privolye. This area is marked with (1) on the map.
2—This information confirms that the Allied forces have crossed the Seversky Donets river. It appears that the river crossing to the west of Serebryanka, which the Ukrainians destroyed, was nothing more than a ruse and cover for the real operation to traverse the river.
3—This development significantly worsens the operations situation for the Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk. The ability of the Russian forces to strike the highway between Lisichansk and Artyomovsk and suppress enemy activity along this supply route makes the situation for the Ukrainian troops even worse. For greater control, the Russian army needs to establish a bridgehead on the right (western) bank of Donets in this area, but the Ukrainian side is already in panic.
4—In the south, despite the Allied forces’ liberation of Popasnaya and forward movement in the Bakhmutka area, the Ukrainian army retains a stronghold in Zolotoy (which has added symbolism, as a place where Biletsky’s neo-Nazi National Corps organized the “Last Checkpoint” campaign to protest Poroshenko’s “capitulation” and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. He said, at the rally in 2019, “This is our last checkpoint, and we will never leave it.”) Notwithstanding Biletsky’s protestations, Zolotoy will be surrounded in the event Toshkovka and Vrubovka are taken. The Zolotoy strongpoint is marked with (2) on the map.
5—The success of the offensive in this area depends on the Ukrainian troops numbers. It is not entirely clear where the units of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade retreated to [while some reports claimed that the remnants of the brigade headed to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Ukrainian sources claim that the 24th Brigade has retreated to nearby fortified positions previously prepared for the purpose]. It is also not clear which unit has withdrawn from Lisichansk and where it is headed.
6—The defence of Severodonetsk no longer has any operational significance for the Ukrainian army. The fact that troops were kept here indicates only the Ukrainian desire to erase the city off the map in the course a protracted battle. However, the Ukrainian Nazis have already provoked a humanitarian catastrophe: The Popasnaya water canal has been damaged and its restoration will take a long period of time.
7—For the Russian forces, these developments have the following significance:
a) The long-awaited reduction of the line of front, with the ability either to transfer reserves to other directions or to increase the density of the troops concentrations in the direction of Seversk and Artyomovsk.
b) A important victory and achievement in the form of complete liberation of the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic.
c) Any delay by the Ukrainian forces in retreating will increase the chances of their encirclement.
1—The ambassador of LNR (Lugansk People’s Republic) to Russia has reported about the withdrawal of a Ukrainian brigade from Lisichansk and the clashes in Belogorovka, Shipilovka, and Privolye. This area is marked with (1) on the map.
2—This information confirms that the Allied forces have crossed the Seversky Donets river. It appears that the river crossing to the west of Serebryanka, which the Ukrainians destroyed, was nothing more than a ruse and cover for the real operation to traverse the river.
3—This development significantly worsens the operations situation for the Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk. The ability of the Russian forces to strike the highway between Lisichansk and Artyomovsk and suppress enemy activity along this supply route makes the situation for the Ukrainian troops even worse. For greater control, the Russian army needs to establish a bridgehead on the right (western) bank of Donets in this area, but the Ukrainian side is already in panic.
4—In the south, despite the Allied forces’ liberation of Popasnaya and forward movement in the Bakhmutka area, the Ukrainian army retains a stronghold in Zolotoy (which has added symbolism, as a place where Biletsky’s neo-Nazi National Corps organized the “Last Checkpoint” campaign to protest Poroshenko’s “capitulation” and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. He said, at the rally in 2019, “This is our last checkpoint, and we will never leave it.”) Notwithstanding Biletsky’s protestations, Zolotoy will be surrounded in the event Toshkovka and Vrubovka are taken. The Zolotoy strongpoint is marked with (2) on the map.
5—The success of the offensive in this area depends on the Ukrainian troops numbers. It is not entirely clear where the units of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade retreated to [while some reports claimed that the remnants of the brigade headed to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Ukrainian sources claim that the 24th Brigade has retreated to nearby fortified positions previously prepared for the purpose]. It is also not clear which unit has withdrawn from Lisichansk and where it is headed.
6—The defence of Severodonetsk no longer has any operational significance for the Ukrainian army. The fact that troops were kept here indicates only the Ukrainian desire to erase the city off the map in the course a protracted battle. However, the Ukrainian Nazis have already provoked a humanitarian catastrophe: The Popasnaya water canal has been damaged and its restoration will take a long period of time.
7—For the Russian forces, these developments have the following significance:
a) The long-awaited reduction of the line of front, with the ability either to transfer reserves to other directions or to increase the density of the troops concentrations in the direction of Seversk and Artyomovsk.
b) A important victory and achievement in the form of complete liberation of the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic.
c) Any delay by the Ukrainian forces in retreating will increase the chances of their encirclement.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
Zmeiny Island Update—Combined Sources—May 9, 2019
1—The battle for the Zmeiny Island and the losses of the Ukrainian forces there are being compared, sardonically, to the Battle of Midway. The Ukrainian army has lost 8 (eight) aircraft and 10 (ten) helicopters over the course of one day.
2—It is likely that most of the helicopters were struck while at an intermediate jump landing site, en route to Zmeiny, by four Onyx missiles launched by the Russian forces from Crimea. Unlike Kalibr, Onyx missiles are supersonic, with speed up to 3,000 km/hour. That is why they were used to attack the helicopters, so as not to allow them time to escape the strike.
3—As a result, the Ukrainian air force never made it to Zmeiny island today. After the attack using Onyx missiles on the Chervonoglinsky aerodrome, the Ukrainian Su aircraft turned around halfway to the island. From the intermediate jump landing site in Izmail, the Ukrainian air assets were flown to the north.
4—The Zmeiny island is once again under the control of the Russian forces. [GB: although, judging from a closer reading of the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defence, the defending unit of the Russian army may never have left the island in the first place.]
5—The significant losses of the Ukrainian army are reflected in Rybar's most recent report, for May 9, 2022, as based on the internal conservative estimate reports of the Ukrainian General Staff.
1—The battle for the Zmeiny Island and the losses of the Ukrainian forces there are being compared, sardonically, to the Battle of Midway. The Ukrainian army has lost 8 (eight) aircraft and 10 (ten) helicopters over the course of one day.
2—It is likely that most of the helicopters were struck while at an intermediate jump landing site, en route to Zmeiny, by four Onyx missiles launched by the Russian forces from Crimea. Unlike Kalibr, Onyx missiles are supersonic, with speed up to 3,000 km/hour. That is why they were used to attack the helicopters, so as not to allow them time to escape the strike.
3—As a result, the Ukrainian air force never made it to Zmeiny island today. After the attack using Onyx missiles on the Chervonoglinsky aerodrome, the Ukrainian Su aircraft turned around halfway to the island. From the intermediate jump landing site in Izmail, the Ukrainian air assets were flown to the north.
4—The Zmeiny island is once again under the control of the Russian forces. [GB: although, judging from a closer reading of the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defence, the defending unit of the Russian army may never have left the island in the first place.]
5—The significant losses of the Ukrainian army are reflected in Rybar's most recent report, for May 9, 2022, as based on the internal conservative estimate reports of the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
The Severodonetsk Cauldron Update—Vladislav Ugolny SitRep, May 8, 2022
1—The ambassador of LNR (Lugansk People’s Republic) to Russia has reported about the withdrawal of a Ukrainian brigade from Lisichansk and the clashes in Belogorovka, Shipilovka, and Privolye. This area is marked with (1) on the map.
2—This information confirms that the Allied forces have crossed the Seversky Donets river. It appears that the river crossing to the west of Serebryanka, which the Ukrainians destroyed, was nothing more than a ruse and cover for the real operation to traverse the waterway.
3—This development significantly worsens the operational situation for the Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk. The ability of the Russian forces to strike the highway between Lisichansk and Artyomovsk and suppress enemy activity along this supply route makes the situation for the Ukrainian troops even worse. For greater control, the Russian army needs to establish a bridgehead on the right (western) bank of Donets in this area, but the Ukrainian side is already in panic.
4—In the south, despite the Allied forces’ liberation of Popasnaya and forward movement in the Bakhmutka area, the Ukrainian army retains a stronghold in Zolotoy (which has added symbolism, as a place where Biletsky’s neo-Nazi National Corps organized the “Last Checkpoint” campaign to protest Poroshenko’s “capitulation” and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. He said, at the rally in 2019, “This is our last checkpoint, and we will never leave it.”) Notwithstanding Biletsky’s protestations, Zolotoy will be surrounded in the event Toshkovka and Vrubovka are taken. The Zolotoy strongpoint is marked with (2) on the map.
5—The success of the offensive in this area depends on the Ukrainian troops numbers. It is not entirely clear where the units of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade retreated to [while some reports claimed that the remnants of the brigade headed to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Ukrainian sources claim that the 24th Brigade has retreated to nearby fortified positions previously prepared for the purpose]. It is also not clear which unit has withdrawn from Lisichansk and where it is headed.
6—The defence of Severodonetsk no longer has any operational significance for the Ukrainian army. The fact that troops were kept here indicates only the Ukrainian desire to erase the city off the map in the course a protracted battle. However, the Ukrainian Nazis have already provoked a humanitarian catastrophe: The Popasnaya water canal has been damaged and its restoration will take a long period of time.
7—For the Russian forces, these developments have the following significance:
a) The long-awaited reduction of the line of front, with the ability either to transfer reserves to other directions or to increase the density of the troops concentrations in the direction of Seversk and Artyomovsk.
b) An important victory and achievement in the form of complete liberation of the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic.
c) Any delay by the Ukrainian forces in retreating will increase the chances of their encirclement.
1—The ambassador of LNR (Lugansk People’s Republic) to Russia has reported about the withdrawal of a Ukrainian brigade from Lisichansk and the clashes in Belogorovka, Shipilovka, and Privolye. This area is marked with (1) on the map.
2—This information confirms that the Allied forces have crossed the Seversky Donets river. It appears that the river crossing to the west of Serebryanka, which the Ukrainians destroyed, was nothing more than a ruse and cover for the real operation to traverse the waterway.
3—This development significantly worsens the operational situation for the Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk. The ability of the Russian forces to strike the highway between Lisichansk and Artyomovsk and suppress enemy activity along this supply route makes the situation for the Ukrainian troops even worse. For greater control, the Russian army needs to establish a bridgehead on the right (western) bank of Donets in this area, but the Ukrainian side is already in panic.
4—In the south, despite the Allied forces’ liberation of Popasnaya and forward movement in the Bakhmutka area, the Ukrainian army retains a stronghold in Zolotoy (which has added symbolism, as a place where Biletsky’s neo-Nazi National Corps organized the “Last Checkpoint” campaign to protest Poroshenko’s “capitulation” and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. He said, at the rally in 2019, “This is our last checkpoint, and we will never leave it.”) Notwithstanding Biletsky’s protestations, Zolotoy will be surrounded in the event Toshkovka and Vrubovka are taken. The Zolotoy strongpoint is marked with (2) on the map.
5—The success of the offensive in this area depends on the Ukrainian troops numbers. It is not entirely clear where the units of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade retreated to [while some reports claimed that the remnants of the brigade headed to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Ukrainian sources claim that the 24th Brigade has retreated to nearby fortified positions previously prepared for the purpose]. It is also not clear which unit has withdrawn from Lisichansk and where it is headed.
6—The defence of Severodonetsk no longer has any operational significance for the Ukrainian army. The fact that troops were kept here indicates only the Ukrainian desire to erase the city off the map in the course a protracted battle. However, the Ukrainian Nazis have already provoked a humanitarian catastrophe: The Popasnaya water canal has been damaged and its restoration will take a long period of time.
7—For the Russian forces, these developments have the following significance:
a) The long-awaited reduction of the line of front, with the ability either to transfer reserves to other directions or to increase the density of the troops concentrations in the direction of Seversk and Artyomovsk.
b) An important victory and achievement in the form of complete liberation of the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic.
c) Any delay by the Ukrainian forces in retreating will increase the chances of their encirclement.
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics (Scott)
Russia appears to be solidly across the Seversky Donets near Belgorovka.
This shuts down the main supply route (MSR) into Severodonetsk-Lisichansk and basically unhinges the entire position. Between this move and Nizhyn the AFU's going to be off-roading soon to move in/out.
@armchairW
This shuts down the main supply route (MSR) into Severodonetsk-Lisichansk and basically unhinges the entire position. Between this move and Nizhyn the AFU's going to be off-roading soon to move in/out.
@armchairW
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Forwarded from Intel Slava
🇺🇦⚡ Ukrainian telegram channel
"Our source in the OP said that in the last two weeks we have lost more Bayraktar TB2s than in the entire war. The failure of the operation to storm the Snake island and unsuccessful flights to military facilities in Russia cost us 50 Bayraktar. The Turkish side has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the use of drones, but the General Staff has its own vision on the use of Bayraktar TB2"
"Our source in the OP said that in the last two weeks we have lost more Bayraktar TB2s than in the entire war. The failure of the operation to storm the Snake island and unsuccessful flights to military facilities in Russia cost us 50 Bayraktar. The Turkish side has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the use of drones, but the General Staff has its own vision on the use of Bayraktar TB2"
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Forwarded from DD Geopolitics (Scott)
New map as of today, unconfirmed reports that the RF forces took control of Vojevodivka south of Rubizhne. Also reports that the RF forces used a pontoon bridge to cross the Seversky Donets river (illustrated below in blue).
Courtesy of @Denyo666 on twitter
Courtesy of @Denyo666 on twitter
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
The Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine—SitRep by Boris Rozhin (ColonelCassad) @boris_rozhin, as of 23:00 on May 22, 2022
1—Mariupol—The unhurried assault on the Azovstal industrial complex in Mariupol continues. Having lost the slag heap hills (terrikons), the Azov (Ukrainian neo-Nazi National Guard regiment) fighters nonetheless continue holding key buildings in the territory of the complex. These strongpoints are being subjected to air and artillery strikes by the Allied forces, contributing to a stead rise in Azov casualties.
2—Zaporozhye—There have been no changes along the Kamenskoye—Orekhov—Gulyai Pole front line. There are also no appreciable progress along the Gulyai Pole—Velikaya Novoselovka line.
3—Ugledar—There have been no changes along the Novomikhailovka—Ugledar—Velikaya Novoselovka line. Reports indicates heavy fighting in the area of Novomikhailovka.
4—Maryinka—There has been no substantial progress within the limits of the settlement. The fighting continue, as before, in the environs of the coal waste hill (terrikon).
5—Avdeevka—Clashes continue along the Avdeevka—Konstantinovka highway. Reports indicate that the Ukrainian troops have blown up the dam in order to retard the progress of the advancing Allied forces. Fighting is also ongoing near Novobakhmutovka, in the vicinity of Troitskoye.
6—LNR—After the taking of Popasnaya, the Allied forces continue probing the Ukrainian army’s defenses in the direction of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). Clashes also continue near Toshkovka and Voevodovka. The Ukrainian units are being driven further from Rubezhnoye. Heavy fighting is taking place in the vicinity of Belogorovka, where a threat to the communication lines of the Severodonetsk grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has materialized. Both sides are taking losses. Nonetheless, the risk of encirclement of a part of the Donbass military grouping of the Ukrainian army is rising.
7—Izyum—Heavy clashes are continuing near Kurulka and Pashkovo, as well as in the vicinity of Velikaya Kamyshevakha. Near Yampol, the Ukrainian army sustained heave losses and was forced to retreat. The Allied armies are approaching Krasny Lyman (Lyman) from the north-west. The Ukrainian Armed Forces command is rushing reserves to this theatre of the campaign in order to prop up the breaking line of the front.
8—Kharkov—The Ukrainian units are pursuing attacks in the direction of Liptsy and Kazachya Lopan, intending to drive the Allied forces further away from Kharkov. The Ukrainian army has also made progress from Stary Saltov in the direction of Ternovaya, in the vicinity of which fighting is taking place [in reliance on unconfirmed reports, @Rybar has since claimed that Ternovaya has been taken by the Kraken unit of the Azov regiment and other nationalist battalions]. It is evident that the situation in the Kharkov theatre of the campaign requires Russian reinforcements. The Ukrainian Armed Forces units approaching the border increases the threat of shelling of settlements in the territory of the Russian Federation, and it would be difficult to suppress such attacks without controlling the border with the Kharkov region.
9—Nikolayev—There have been no material changes either on the Nikolayev or the Nikopol front. The fighting here has positional character.
10—Odessa—Without significant changes. After taking serious losses, the Ukrainian army has ceased its attempts to land on the Zmeiny island. According to several sources, there were foreign military advisors among those who died on the island. The grandiose plans of taking the Zmeiny island in time for the May 9th celebration yielded no results.
1—Mariupol—The unhurried assault on the Azovstal industrial complex in Mariupol continues. Having lost the slag heap hills (terrikons), the Azov (Ukrainian neo-Nazi National Guard regiment) fighters nonetheless continue holding key buildings in the territory of the complex. These strongpoints are being subjected to air and artillery strikes by the Allied forces, contributing to a stead rise in Azov casualties.
2—Zaporozhye—There have been no changes along the Kamenskoye—Orekhov—Gulyai Pole front line. There are also no appreciable progress along the Gulyai Pole—Velikaya Novoselovka line.
3—Ugledar—There have been no changes along the Novomikhailovka—Ugledar—Velikaya Novoselovka line. Reports indicates heavy fighting in the area of Novomikhailovka.
4—Maryinka—There has been no substantial progress within the limits of the settlement. The fighting continue, as before, in the environs of the coal waste hill (terrikon).
5—Avdeevka—Clashes continue along the Avdeevka—Konstantinovka highway. Reports indicate that the Ukrainian troops have blown up the dam in order to retard the progress of the advancing Allied forces. Fighting is also ongoing near Novobakhmutovka, in the vicinity of Troitskoye.
6—LNR—After the taking of Popasnaya, the Allied forces continue probing the Ukrainian army’s defenses in the direction of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). Clashes also continue near Toshkovka and Voevodovka. The Ukrainian units are being driven further from Rubezhnoye. Heavy fighting is taking place in the vicinity of Belogorovka, where a threat to the communication lines of the Severodonetsk grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has materialized. Both sides are taking losses. Nonetheless, the risk of encirclement of a part of the Donbass military grouping of the Ukrainian army is rising.
7—Izyum—Heavy clashes are continuing near Kurulka and Pashkovo, as well as in the vicinity of Velikaya Kamyshevakha. Near Yampol, the Ukrainian army sustained heave losses and was forced to retreat. The Allied armies are approaching Krasny Lyman (Lyman) from the north-west. The Ukrainian Armed Forces command is rushing reserves to this theatre of the campaign in order to prop up the breaking line of the front.
8—Kharkov—The Ukrainian units are pursuing attacks in the direction of Liptsy and Kazachya Lopan, intending to drive the Allied forces further away from Kharkov. The Ukrainian army has also made progress from Stary Saltov in the direction of Ternovaya, in the vicinity of which fighting is taking place [in reliance on unconfirmed reports, @Rybar has since claimed that Ternovaya has been taken by the Kraken unit of the Azov regiment and other nationalist battalions]. It is evident that the situation in the Kharkov theatre of the campaign requires Russian reinforcements. The Ukrainian Armed Forces units approaching the border increases the threat of shelling of settlements in the territory of the Russian Federation, and it would be difficult to suppress such attacks without controlling the border with the Kharkov region.
9—Nikolayev—There have been no material changes either on the Nikolayev or the Nikopol front. The fighting here has positional character.
10—Odessa—Without significant changes. After taking serious losses, the Ukrainian army has ceased its attempts to land on the Zmeiny island. According to several sources, there were foreign military advisors among those who died on the island. The grandiose plans of taking the Zmeiny island in time for the May 9th celebration yielded no results.
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Latest maps of the Donbass front line. Notice Belgorovka under Russian control.
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Apparently the Ukrainian General Staff has now confirmed a successful river crossing.
I get a lot of flak for my predictions but I'm usually way ahead of brOSINT lol.
I get a lot of flak for my predictions but I'm usually way ahead of brOSINT lol.
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They claim heavy Russian casualties (and if photos are anything to go by they're right) but losing a significant part of a battalion to force a breach is normal and to be expected from my experience.
The operation continues.
The operation continues.
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I'll probably write a note tonight on brOSINT's cardinal sins - overinterpretation, credulity towards unreliable sources, and confirmation bias. It was on full display today.
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This probably indicates the Ukrainian "offensive" on Izyum is over, and they're moving troops to prevent an outright collapse deeper in the Donbass.
Also this isn't much of a reconstitution for a brigade-size element. This unit may very well have taken 60-70% casualties thus far and lost all/almost all of its tanks.
Also this isn't much of a reconstitution for a brigade-size element. This unit may very well have taken 60-70% casualties thus far and lost all/almost all of its tanks.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad
@Rybar Report: Regrouping of the Ukrainian Forces in the Izyum Theatre of the Conflict.
1—In light of the difficult situation (https://t.me/rybar/32558) facing the Ukrainian units in Donbass, the Ukrainian command has decided to transfer part of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, until now deployed in the vicinity of the Seversky Donets river.
2—An unknown number of fighters and quantity equipment of the 14th Brigade will be brought via railroad during nighttime to the Soledar area (Map #1) for the purpose of reinforcing the Ukrainian grouping of forces in Donbass.
3—Several of the 14th Brigade units will remain around Zavgorodneye (Map #2) and will be transferred to the command of the Ukrainian 4th Separate Tank Brigade, reinforced with 10 additional tanks and 300 servicemen of the territorial defence (https://t.me/rybar/32533).
4—It is likely that the plan of the offensive aimed at the flank of the Russian forces’ grouping near Izyum will also have to be adjusted. An option being considered includes
1—In light of the difficult situation (https://t.me/rybar/32558) facing the Ukrainian units in Donbass, the Ukrainian command has decided to transfer part of the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade, until now deployed in the vicinity of the Seversky Donets river.
2—An unknown number of fighters and quantity equipment of the 14th Brigade will be brought via railroad during nighttime to the Soledar area (Map #1) for the purpose of reinforcing the Ukrainian grouping of forces in Donbass.
3—Several of the 14th Brigade units will remain around Zavgorodneye (Map #2) and will be transferred to the command of the Ukrainian 4th Separate Tank Brigade, reinforced with 10 additional tanks and 300 servicemen of the territorial defence (https://t.me/rybar/32533).
4—It is likely that the plan of the offensive aimed at the flank of the Russian forces’ grouping near Izyum will also have to be adjusted. An option being considered includes
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