This position had already occurred a couple of times in practice. White did not manage to win a single one of these games, and indeed Black appears to have a safe fortress. Obviously White will not be able to create a passed pawn on the queenside. Without that, making progress on the kingside turns out to be impossible.
Looking a little further, it will help if you start searching for ways to keep the h4-knight off-side.
After the text move, the rook and passed pawn turn out to be a dangerous couple in exchange for the two pieces, which is not so strange especially if you consider the knight on h4 – another reason not to go for this knight immediately.
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Mikhail Golubev-Vlad Victor Barnaure Bucharest 2006 White quietly proceeded with 16.Qd2. Should Black complete his development with 16…Rad8?
No! With his last move White set a disguised trap, protecting the g5-bishop and taking control of the a5-square. Have you got the clue? Look what happened in the game:
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Vasily Smyslov-Iosif Rudakovsky Moscow ch-URS 1945 The best move for White?
16.Bxf6! Bxf6 17.Nd5! Bd8
After 17…Qxc2, White not only has great positional compensation for the pawn, but he can also win material straight away: 18.Rf2 Qc5 19.Rc1 Qd4 20.Nc7.
And Smyslov used his great knight on d5 to launch a decisive attack on the kingside: