Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Tatarigami_UA 7/ Furthermore, the boss of the Wagner group, Prigozhin, has denied that his group sustained any losses during the attack in Mali. Source article in attached image
(#) Tatarigami_UA
8/ Since Wagner's arrival in Mali, they have used separate airfield aprons to store used by them aerial vehicles. In a satellite image from 09.2022, a SU-25 was parked at one of these aprons. This aircraft crashed in October, resulting in the death of a Wagner instructor.
8/ Since Wagner's arrival in Mali, they have used separate airfield aprons to store used by them aerial vehicles. In a satellite image from 09.2022, a SU-25 was parked at one of these aprons. This aircraft crashed in October, resulting in the death of a Wagner instructor.
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Tatarigami_UA 8/ Since Wagner's arrival in Mali, they have used separate airfield aprons to store used by them aerial vehicles. In a satellite image from 09.2022, a SU-25 was parked at one of these aprons. This aircraft crashed in October, resulting in…
(#) Tatarigami_UA
9/ Their presence on the base have being previously confirmed by German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht. Source article in the attached image
9/ Their presence on the base have being previously confirmed by German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht. Source article in the attached image
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Tatarigami_UA 9/ Their presence on the base have being previously confirmed by German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht. Source article in the attached image
(#) Tatarigami_UA
10/ In March, a Bayraktar recently transferred from Turkey to Mali was observed on an apron typically used by the Wagner Group. While this observation does not necessarily imply that the group has control of the drone, it is unusual to see a TB-2 drone located on "Wagner" apron
(#) 11/ The presence of TB-2 drones near Wagner bases in Mali, as well as their appearance on an airfield apron typically used by the group, raise serious concerns. Scrutinizing these incidents is crucial to prevent russia from using drones or obtaining sensitive information
10/ In March, a Bayraktar recently transferred from Turkey to Mali was observed on an apron typically used by the Wagner Group. While this observation does not necessarily imply that the group has control of the drone, it is unusual to see a TB-2 drone located on "Wagner" apron
(#) 11/ The presence of TB-2 drones near Wagner bases in Mali, as well as their appearance on an airfield apron typically used by the group, raise serious concerns. Scrutinizing these incidents is crucial to prevent russia from using drones or obtaining sensitive information
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Tatarigami_UA 10/ In March, a Bayraktar recently transferred from Turkey to Mali was observed on an apron typically used by the Wagner Group. While this observation does not necessarily imply that the group has control of the drone, it is unusual to see…
(#) Tatarigami_UA
12/ Wagner's presence in Africa supports autocrats in exchange for raw resources and raises concerns about their access to technologies like the TB-2. For more information about Wagner's activities in Africa, I recommend checking out this thread:
Tatarigami_UA: 🧵
1/ Despite PMC Wagner's reputation for heinous crimes and brutal tactics, certain aspects of their activities have received limited coverage. This thread illuminates the far-reaching influence of PMC Wagner and the significant security risks it poses to the global community
(#) Remember to like, follow, and share the first message in this thread to stay updated on the latest developments.
12/ Wagner's presence in Africa supports autocrats in exchange for raw resources and raises concerns about their access to technologies like the TB-2. For more information about Wagner's activities in Africa, I recommend checking out this thread:
Tatarigami_UA: 🧵
1/ Despite PMC Wagner's reputation for heinous crimes and brutal tactics, certain aspects of their activities have received limited coverage. This thread illuminates the far-reaching influence of PMC Wagner and the significant security risks it poses to the global community
(#) Remember to like, follow, and share the first message in this thread to stay updated on the latest developments.
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
Reading this at the moment and absolutely loving it. If you are after a great thriller, “Fire with Fire”, delivers in spades. Thanks for another wonderful read @candicefoxbooks
Candice Fox: The question mark of self-interest vs morality hovers over every choice, catapulting this novel miles ahead of your run-of-the-mill crime thriller.’
Oh, Better Reading. You’re always such a great support. Thank you!
betterreading.com.au/review/sky-hig…
Reading this at the moment and absolutely loving it. If you are after a great thriller, “Fire with Fire”, delivers in spades. Thanks for another wonderful read @candicefoxbooks
Candice Fox: The question mark of self-interest vs morality hovers over every choice, catapulting this novel miles ahead of your run-of-the-mill crime thriller.’
Oh, Better Reading. You’re always such a great support. Thank you!
betterreading.com.au/review/sky-hig…
Better Reading
Sky-High Stakes and Soaring Tensions: Read Our Review of Fire With Fire by Candice Fox | Better Reading
A married couple launch a deadly plan to find their missing child. A half-dead man washes up on a Los Angeles beach. A rookie cop is fired on her first day. Candice Fox has already made a name for herself as one of Australia’s most brilliant crime writers.…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
A very informative and timely new report on key technologies in the US-China strategic competition, by @EHarding_DC & @HGhoorhoo. | @CSIS
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/20…
A very informative and timely new report on key technologies in the US-China strategic competition, by @EHarding_DC & @HGhoorhoo. | @CSIS
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/20…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
“White Sun War” is a first-rate techno-thriller. It is an enjoyable read in and of itself, but its concept-driven narrative is what sets it apart from other books.”
A great review of my new book, #WhiteSunWar, by @joshuachuminski at the @diplocourier
diplomaticourier.com/posts/conceptu…
“White Sun War” is a first-rate techno-thriller. It is an enjoyable read in and of itself, but its concept-driven narrative is what sets it apart from other books.”
A great review of my new book, #WhiteSunWar, by @joshuachuminski at the @diplocourier
diplomaticourier.com/posts/conceptu…
Diplomaticourier
Conceptualizing a Conflict with China
Apr 29, 2023 // There is an emerging consensus within Washington that the question of open conflict with China is not one of "if" but of "when." Maj. Gen.'s recent book "White Sun War" envisions what open conflict over Taiwan might look like as a work of…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
“AI has gained some remarkable abilities to manipulate and generate language…AI has thereby hacked the operating system of our civilisation.” A fascinating commentary from @harari_yuval economist.com/by-invitation/… economist.com/by-invitation/…
“AI has gained some remarkable abilities to manipulate and generate language…AI has thereby hacked the operating system of our civilisation.” A fascinating commentary from @harari_yuval economist.com/by-invitation/… economist.com/by-invitation/…
The Economist
Yuval Noah Harari argues that AI has hacked the operating system of human civilisation
Storytelling computers will change the course of human history, says the historian and philosopher
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(#) Mick Ryan, AM
A good thread exploring the attack on Russian fuel storage at its Sevastopol naval base from @IntelCrab
The Intel Crab: The fire may be out, but questions remain regarding the size, origin, and payload of the drone used in last night's attack.
Here's what we know so far...
A good thread exploring the attack on Russian fuel storage at its Sevastopol naval base from @IntelCrab
The Intel Crab: The fire may be out, but questions remain regarding the size, origin, and payload of the drone used in last night's attack.
Here's what we know so far...
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
It was a pleasure to speak with @SamRoggeveen at the @LowyInstitute about Australia's new Defence Strategic Review this week. You can listen to our conversation here.
The Lowy Institute: NEW PODCAST: Military strategist Mick Ryan @WarintheFuture speaks to International Security Program Director @SamRoggeveen about the Defence Strategic Review in this new episode of Lowy Institute Conversations. Listen here: lowyinstitute.org/publications/c…
It was a pleasure to speak with @SamRoggeveen at the @LowyInstitute about Australia's new Defence Strategic Review this week. You can listen to our conversation here.
The Lowy Institute: NEW PODCAST: Military strategist Mick Ryan @WarintheFuture speaks to International Security Program Director @SamRoggeveen about the Defence Strategic Review in this new episode of Lowy Institute Conversations. Listen here: lowyinstitute.org/publications/c…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
A good thread on adaptation from @Tatarigami_UA. We use drones as cheap, meshed recon and targeting systems. The enemy has produced an even cheaper counter to them. The #adaptation battle in #Ukraine continues, and we need to learn from it.
Tatarigami_UA: 🧵Thread
1/ Another noteworthy development in the ongoing invasion is the reported use of anti-thermal blankets/coats by russian soldiers in close proximity to Donetsk.
A good thread on adaptation from @Tatarigami_UA. We use drones as cheap, meshed recon and targeting systems. The enemy has produced an even cheaper counter to them. The #adaptation battle in #Ukraine continues, and we need to learn from it.
Tatarigami_UA: 🧵Thread
1/ Another noteworthy development in the ongoing invasion is the reported use of anti-thermal blankets/coats by russian soldiers in close proximity to Donetsk.
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
Undoubtedly, H-Hour (the time set for a planned attack) for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensives is drawing near. For months, Ukrainian planners and strategic leaders preparing. How might we assess the success of the offensives to come? 1/22 🧵
(#) 2/ In my previous post on this topic, I described the rationale for measures of success & failure. I also listed five principles for their development and application. Success in the coming offensives can be measured at different levels and over different timescales.
(#) 3/ Progress will be assessed by multitudes of analysts, journalists, politicians and citizens. At the same time, some will quickly jump on short term tactical setbacks instead of waiting a few days to assess the full implications of such incidents.
Undoubtedly, H-Hour (the time set for a planned attack) for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensives is drawing near. For months, Ukrainian planners and strategic leaders preparing. How might we assess the success of the offensives to come? 1/22 🧵
(#) 2/ In my previous post on this topic, I described the rationale for measures of success & failure. I also listed five principles for their development and application. Success in the coming offensives can be measured at different levels and over different timescales.
(#) 3/ Progress will be assessed by multitudes of analysts, journalists, politicians and citizens. At the same time, some will quickly jump on short term tactical setbacks instead of waiting a few days to assess the full implications of such incidents.
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Mick Ryan, AM Undoubtedly, H-Hour (the time set for a planned attack) for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensives is drawing near. For months, Ukrainian planners and strategic leaders preparing. How might we assess the success of the offensives to come? 1/22…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
4/ I propose a set of measures of success for the forthcoming offensives. Some of the measures are tactical, some more strategic or political. Together, they are a linked set of measures that can be used to assess whether the degree to which Ukrainian offensives are successful.
(#) 5/ In this thread, I have only covered measures of success. The full set of measures of success and failure are in my latest Futura Doctrina post here: mickryan.substack.com/p/the-ukrainia…
(#) 6/ Measure 1: #Ukraine achieves surprise (tactical and operational levels, some political impact – short term). Generating surprise leads to shock. Shock should lead to slower Russian decision making and responses to Ukrainian operations.
(#) 7/ While relatively easy to assess on the ground, limitations on sharing information with news organisations may make this harder to assess in the short term. It is, however, a key component for the success of the Ukrainian offensives.
4/ I propose a set of measures of success for the forthcoming offensives. Some of the measures are tactical, some more strategic or political. Together, they are a linked set of measures that can be used to assess whether the degree to which Ukrainian offensives are successful.
(#) 5/ In this thread, I have only covered measures of success. The full set of measures of success and failure are in my latest Futura Doctrina post here: mickryan.substack.com/p/the-ukrainia…
(#) 6/ Measure 1: #Ukraine achieves surprise (tactical and operational levels, some political impact – short term). Generating surprise leads to shock. Shock should lead to slower Russian decision making and responses to Ukrainian operations.
(#) 7/ While relatively easy to assess on the ground, limitations on sharing information with news organisations may make this harder to assess in the short term. It is, however, a key component for the success of the Ukrainian offensives.
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Mick Ryan, AM 4/ I propose a set of measures of success for the forthcoming offensives. Some of the measures are tactical, some more strategic or political. Together, they are a linked set of measures that can be used to assess whether the degree to which…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
8/ Measure 2: #Ukraine is able to destroy or degrade Russian tactical and operational reserves, C2 and logistics before the offensive (tactical, operational and strategic impacts – short term). The Ukrainians will want to limit the Russian’s ability to respond to their attacks.
(#) 9/ Finding and neutralising mobile Russian reserves, HQ and logistics before - and at the beginning of - the offensives will be important. Achieving this is reliant on excellent intelligence, various long range strike mechanisms, as well as air, missile and drone defences.
(#) 10/ Measure 3: Ukraine takes back its territory (tactical and operational, but with political ramifications). This might seem obvious, but this needs to be an explicit measure of success. I don’t propose a certain percentage of territory that should be recaptured.
8/ Measure 2: #Ukraine is able to destroy or degrade Russian tactical and operational reserves, C2 and logistics before the offensive (tactical, operational and strategic impacts – short term). The Ukrainians will want to limit the Russian’s ability to respond to their attacks.
(#) 9/ Finding and neutralising mobile Russian reserves, HQ and logistics before - and at the beginning of - the offensives will be important. Achieving this is reliant on excellent intelligence, various long range strike mechanisms, as well as air, missile and drone defences.
(#) 10/ Measure 3: Ukraine takes back its territory (tactical and operational, but with political ramifications). This might seem obvious, but this needs to be an explicit measure of success. I don’t propose a certain percentage of territory that should be recaptured.
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Mick Ryan, AM 8/ Measure 2: #Ukraine is able to destroy or degrade Russian tactical and operational reserves, C2 and logistics before the offensive (tactical, operational and strategic impacts – short term). The Ukrainians will want to limit the Russian’s…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
11/ But if most of Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are recaptured, this would be a very successful outcome. And it would be good foundation for subsequent operations against Crimea and Donetsk in the future.
(#) 12/ Measure 4: Ukraine is postured to retake Crimea at the end of the offensives (Operational, strategic and political – medium term). As I have written previously, the last campaign of the war may be the campaign Ukraine conducts to take back Crimea. mickryan.substack.com/p/all-roads-le…
(#) 13/ Therefore, the coming offensives will be successful if the Ukrainian armed forces are well placed for follow on operations to take back Crimea – either through making it untenable for the Russians to stay, or an actual military operation to seize it.
11/ But if most of Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are recaptured, this would be a very successful outcome. And it would be good foundation for subsequent operations against Crimea and Donetsk in the future.
(#) 12/ Measure 4: Ukraine is postured to retake Crimea at the end of the offensives (Operational, strategic and political – medium term). As I have written previously, the last campaign of the war may be the campaign Ukraine conducts to take back Crimea. mickryan.substack.com/p/all-roads-le…
(#) 13/ Therefore, the coming offensives will be successful if the Ukrainian armed forces are well placed for follow on operations to take back Crimea – either through making it untenable for the Russians to stay, or an actual military operation to seize it.
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Mick Ryan, AM 11/ But if most of Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are recaptured, this would be a very successful outcome. And it would be good foundation for subsequent operations against Crimea and Donetsk in the future. (#) 12/ Measure 4: Ukraine…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
14/ Measure 5: Ukraine captures / destroys Russian forces (tactical and operational, but with political and strategic ramifications). Related to the recapture of its territory is the capture or destruction of Russian forces. The Russians have to be beaten and be seen to be beat.
(#) 15/ A successful Ukrainian offensive will also ensure sufficient Russian combat power is destroyed to prevent Russia conducting any follow-on offensives for the remainder of 2023.
(#) 16/ Measure 6: Ukraine preserves sufficient forces to continue defending some areas and conduct subsequent offensives in others (Operational and strategic – medium term). The Ukrainians will invest a significant part of their combat power in this offensive.
14/ Measure 5: Ukraine captures / destroys Russian forces (tactical and operational, but with political and strategic ramifications). Related to the recapture of its territory is the capture or destruction of Russian forces. The Russians have to be beaten and be seen to be beat.
(#) 15/ A successful Ukrainian offensive will also ensure sufficient Russian combat power is destroyed to prevent Russia conducting any follow-on offensives for the remainder of 2023.
(#) 16/ Measure 6: Ukraine preserves sufficient forces to continue defending some areas and conduct subsequent offensives in others (Operational and strategic – medium term). The Ukrainians will invest a significant part of their combat power in this offensive.
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Mick Ryan, AM 14/ Measure 5: Ukraine captures / destroys Russian forces (tactical and operational, but with political and strategic ramifications). Related to the recapture of its territory is the capture or destruction of Russian forces. The Russians…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
17/ But, they will want to do so in a way where they don’t sustain massive casualties. The degree to which Ukraine can inflict disproportionate casualties and destruction on the Russians in the coming offensives will be a an important measure of success.
(#) 18/ Measure 7: Ukraine’s supporters believe the offensives have been a success (political and strategic). For Ukraine to achieve success in its operations, and the Ukrainian people, foreign leaders and populations will need to think they have succeeded.
17/ But, they will want to do so in a way where they don’t sustain massive casualties. The degree to which Ukraine can inflict disproportionate casualties and destruction on the Russians in the coming offensives will be a an important measure of success.
(#) 18/ Measure 7: Ukraine’s supporters believe the offensives have been a success (political and strategic). For Ukraine to achieve success in its operations, and the Ukrainian people, foreign leaders and populations will need to think they have succeeded.
Ukraine War Reports: Twitter
(#) Mick Ryan, AM 17/ But, they will want to do so in a way where they don’t sustain massive casualties. The degree to which Ukraine can inflict disproportionate casualties and destruction on the Russians in the coming offensives will be a an important measure…
(#) Mick Ryan, AM
19/ It will not be long until we can put these measures into action. The Ukrainian military has been preparing for its offensives for some time, and they are clearly ready to force the Russians out of as much of Ukraine as possible.
(#) 20/ The aim of my two articles on measuring success and failure has been to provide some sense of ‘what victory looks’ like for #Ukraine in the coming months. It is not an exclusive list. And none of the measures are designed to predict specific outcomes.
19/ It will not be long until we can put these measures into action. The Ukrainian military has been preparing for its offensives for some time, and they are clearly ready to force the Russians out of as much of Ukraine as possible.
(#) 20/ The aim of my two articles on measuring success and failure has been to provide some sense of ‘what victory looks’ like for #Ukraine in the coming months. It is not an exclusive list. And none of the measures are designed to predict specific outcomes.