Does that guarantee a rally this month?
Maybe.

The same pattern appeared in 2022, when BTC bounced in July—only to resume its decline and eventually print a lower low before the bear market finally ended.

Bitcoin just closed its monthly candle below the 50 MA and hit a 27-month low.

Monthly MACD is now more negative than at any point since 2022, indicating exhaustion.

However, the broader economy is showing positive signs:

- ISM PMI sits at 54, a 4-year high.

- Oil has dropped below $68.50, which will ease inflation.

- The job market is improving, with new job openings hitting a 2-year high.

The Bitcoin chart is following a typical 4-year cycle, suggesting a final capitulation within the next 2-3 months before the next leg up.

To show strength, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the 200W MA at $62,648, or sellers will remain in control.

In the last cycle, the best accumulation phase started when BTC dropped below the 50 MA, with RSI and MACD hitting new cycle lows.

We have reached that part of the cycle again.