‌The Bitcoin Historian

Source:

Joao Wedson

RT Alphractal: The MVRV is widely known as a fundamental oscillator for on-chain profitability analysis.

It calculates the direct ratio between Bitcoin's market cap and realized cap the average acquisition cost of every circulating coin.

— MVRV = 1: financial neutrality.
— MVRV < 1: systemic undervaluation.
— MVRV > 1: overvaluation and latent profitability.

Below 1, the indicator marks every market bottom with precision. The red circles on the chart confirm it.

But the same simple logic fails at market tops. Here's why and the statistical fix 🧵

Joao Wedson

Bitcoin in 2026 is showing behavioral similarities to 2014, 2018, and 2022.

This is what we call Yearly Seasonality.

Just like repeating rainy seasons, lunar phases, or solar cycles, markets also tend to move in recurring patterns.

In Bitcoin, these seasonal structures often appear as fractals across different cycles.

Of course, history never repeats perfectly.

But it often rhymes enough to give us a clear warning:

When Bitcoin starts behaving like previous bear market years, investors should pay close attention.

Seasonality is not about predicting the future with certainty.

It is about understanding the rhythm of the market before most people notice it.